Member Info for Mike1959

Hi optimistic riley, Iwould not expect so, it is just that we will not see the big ups and down in the quarterly vessel Fair Values when we go to a depreciation model.

I calculate that the NAV at the end of Dec will be 143 cents ( 148 cents at the end of September) which represents a 33% discount to the current share price which is roughly unchanged over the last 12 months.

A Happy Christmas to everyone!

Sotolo, I agree with your comments. I still think PGM prices will increase but later rather than sooner and then not enough for Karo, I would expect the basket price to be up say $100/oz in 6 months and $200/oz in 12 months.

Unfortunately they can't stop pouring money into Karo as we seem to be beyond the point of return having made the investment to date and with commitments to the Zim government and suppliers/contractors. In my opinion the Karo basket price needs to be above $1500/oz just to start and breakeven and probably over $1600+/oz to make a respectable profit (remembering we only own 76.22% of Karo Platinum at the moment) and the longer the project is delayed the higher the cash cost.

Yes, a solid performance with no negative surprises. The profit after tax of $13.8 million is in line with expectations. I will have a look in more details. Still bodes well for the future even though the current quarter in isolation is looking lousy. Chinese New Year starts 29th January so hopefully we see a pick up after that.

Unfortunately the chrome 40 -42% price is now down to $215-220/tonne and stocks at Chinese ports increased to 2 609 m tonnes on 8th Dec

.The Chinese New Year is relatively early in 2025 and starts on 29th Jan so hopefully we will see prices start to recover in mid feb.

...sorry should read 20 (not 24) Handys.

All, the special dividend is an early Christmas present! The sale of the 4 Handys will generate $50.9m before costs and the4c special dividend will cost $13.2m so TMI ishanding back about 26% and the rest can go to debt reduction. I reckon that reduces the fleet to 30 (24 Handys,still 8 Supra/ultramax and and 2 chartered in.

The refinancing sounds excellent and the cash broaden reduction of c.$1700 per day per vessel is over 10% reduction in the cash breakeven.

The change away from measuring vessels at fair value to a depreciation model as previously used by Grindrod is understandable and will stop the big swings in vessel values although the end number in the accounts will still be the same.

Great to see the BOD attuned to the others shareholders inthe business and bodies well for the future. Nevertheless the current quarter will still see a drop in NAV although with the price increase today the percentage discount has reduced.

Huxl, at least they are reserving for this possible royalty liability which will take some time and hopefully goes in our favour and so the reserve can be releases.

But for me a much bigger concern is the carrying value of Karo Platinum ( not KMH) shown in the 2024 accounts on page 59, note 14 as $317.3m with no impairment required. But they have used a Karo PGM basket price of $1855/oz when the basket was only about $1285/oz at the end of Sept 2024 and about $1250/oz at the end of Sept 2023. Later on page 85 note 33 under financial risk management, fair value " TheBoard of Directorsconsiders that the fairvalue s of significant financial assets anand financial liabilities approximate to their carrying values at each reporting date". But this is not true, if the carrying fair value of Karo Platinum had used the actual PGM price at the end of September 2024 then in my opinion they should have taken an imparment of over $100m. This would be highly embarrassing given the price we are currently paying for KMH shares and would be a big hit on the consolidated Tharisa assets. I hope the BOD consider this for the next interim accounts no matter how painful and embarrassing. DYOR!

Yes , the money from the new shares is going into the Karo mine build. You are right that at the current pgm basket price there is no chance that Karo can start big time and don' t forget we would only get 68% of the profit if our share in KMH is increased to 80%. Even worse if the Zim government does not honour their 5 year tax holiday agreement.

To make matters worse the chrome price is down another $30/tonne this week, over 25% reductionin 6 months.This will severely reduce the profitability of tharisa and we will see a massive drop in the net cash figure.

Thanks Sam, you seem to have a good inside track.

A massive 501,000 shares purchases on TMI today despite the BHSI still going down, hopefully the former reflects the bigger picture and the later just the short term picture!

....broker hype at the moment there has not been an executive share purchase for over 2 years while one executive director has been only selling for over 4 years while the only current non- executive purchase was over 4 years ago- hardly a recommendation from the top management!

Thunderbuddy, the position of PP is not in doubt.

The free float is only about 33% and the family (Medway/PP/ LC own about 47%).

The 2021 accounts did include an option for Tharisa to buy up to 40% direct in Karo Platinum for a clearly defined formula price but they appear to have foregone this to keep Medway with a bigger chunk of the pie for a undefined arrangement.

The governance credentials in Tharisa are totally robust and take up over 20 of the final pages in the accounts. But the crux is how much sway does the 3 executive directors haveon the 7 non-executive directors. Despite all of the broker hype at o

Huxl/thunderbuddy, excellent work Huxl, I agree with you numbers except you have missed on 7th Feb 2022 Tharisa paid $5.0 m to buy and additional 1.58% of KMH and the cash consideration in the form of Tharisa shares given to Medway for the 37.96% of KMH increasing our share to 66.34% was $29.4 m which increases your $145.1 m to $152.5m, I agree it will cost a further $77.3m to increase to 80 % so now totalling $229.8 m and we have already spent $5m on early exploration so now up to $234.8m.

The Karo project cost has now increased from $391 m to say $430m, $36.8m has come in the form of the bond debt ( but this matures in 2025 and anyway $10m was invested by Arxo Finance and the full bond was guaranteed by Tharisa). That leaves about $81m to find plus $36.8m when rge bond matures plus further inflationary increases as time moves on. At the moment we are looking for external financing but with pgm prices the moment we will struggle. Then the Zim government seems to be reneging on the SEZ 5 year tax free period.

Interim accounts for April to September now out 18 th Dec.

...sorry read medway 17%!

Guys, what I do not understand is that on page 105 of the accounts note 10 we are told KMH Ltd issued an additional 2,784 new ordinary shares to Tharisa for USD 20 m in cash (or USD 7183.91 each) and that this represented 1.22% of the issued share capital of KMH or 228,197 share in total but in 2023 KHM issued 9,048 new ordinary shares for USD 65m cash ( still USD 7183.91 each) and thatthese additional shares represented 5.00% of the issued share capital in KMH representing 180,960. So why does the share numbers not match????

Even when we increase the share holding in KMH to 80% we will still own only 68% of Karo Platinum (80% x 85% = 68% with the Zim government owning 15% and Medway 32%). I think that rather than buying NEW ordinary shares in KMH , Tharisa should buy out the KMH shzres owned by Medway and then there would remove the conflict of interest and the uncertainty in the relationships.

...... I assume the funds used to buy the extra Karo Mining Holding Ltd shares are already included in the additions to property plant and equipment of -$194.996m on the consolidated statement of cash flow that you mentioned below and the adjustment is in another line. On the balance sheet this will already be included in the property plant and equipment assets of $794.638m and the n adjusted in then controlling interests of $57.323m which is down from $59.302m the year before.

Regarding the big increase in additions to property plant and equipment, of $194.996m if you have a look at note 14 on page 57 this shows that the additions to mining assets and infrastructure is $164.005m which will include some capex spend at Karo and Tharisa but the footnote states "included in additions to miningassets and infrastructure are additions to the deferred stripping asset of $65.8m (2023$4.4m)".This related to the excess stripping caused by having to reorganise the mine, hire in temporary waste crews and equipment and buy in serious amounts of chrome.There is nothing underhand here, this is standard mining accounting procedure when the cost of excessive stripping over the expected ratio can be capitalised over a period.As we know in vc the second half of the year mined ROM recovered and bought-in chrome was dramatically cut back

Freedom4uall, I will have a look and report back over the next few days.

Thunderbuddy, sounds about right,except on your 1) Tharisa previously owned 75% of Karo Mining Holdinds but now owns 76.22% (in the management report under KARO MINING on page

6 it says 76.66% but I assume this is a typo. In note 23 of the accounts under non- controlling interests on page 70 it does mention the Leto Settlement [effectively Medway Developments Ltd] own 23.78% of Karo Mining Holdings plc.

The management report says Tharisa will increase its shareholdingin Karo Mining Holdings plc ( and Leto will reduce to 20%) but as I have mentioned before there is no transparency on how the share purchase price and Leto/Medway is just leaving the internal financing to Tharisa.

Also for Adonis have a look at his interest in Chariot but this was all listed when the solar project was agreed.

Brinsome back for us!

Spot TC's now the lowest since March and still falling but the trigger damage is being done by lower vessel values, Suramax are at their lowest since April and Handys the lowest since May. So I calculate the current nav at 143 cents and falling which is down 5c since the end of September and the lowest number since the end of December last year when it was 136c. Still hope for an upturn in December and fingers crossed for the annual accounts next week.

.....a bit more complicated than that. You have to know that Medway Developments Ltd , The Leto SeSettlement Trust and Tharisa PLC are all connected and where Phoevos Pouroulis and his brother Adonis and father Loucas fit in.