Member Info for Mike1959

A bit of profit-taking in the last 2 days but at current prices , chrome is contributing over 75% of revenue.

Likewise I expect it to be a formality but it could take 2-3 months for the de-listings.

for what it is worth I think the current share price is too low and to be trading at a 35% discount to June NAV.. For the April-June quarter I am expecting an average TCE of $13,000/day giving earnings before interest, dividends and depreciation/appreciation of +$6m then financing -$2.2m, dividend -$6.6m resulting in -$3m. Like for like I have the 38 vessels appreciating by $21m giving an overall performance of +$18m which would add 3.5 to 4.5 cents to the NAV.

We will find out on 26th July!

Redox One offers tremendous potential but requires more R+D and concrete evidence and time that the technology is a winner.

We were informed that construction of the Tharisa mine solar farm, developed by Chariot/Total Eren, would start in the second quarter of this year. It would be good if the 10 July production report or Ilja could confirm it has started. Chariot will invest 15 to 49% of the $45 m project and recent financial news says that Chariot had net cash of $7.9m at the end of April but is forecasting going cash negative from July (presumably investing in this and big projects in Morocco, see the CHAR share Chat for more).

The solar project was expected to supply the Tharisa mine by the end of this year although I think this could extend into Q1/25 (presumably the solar project has to be checked and connected to Eskom). Up to now I believe Redox One has a small prototype at Tharisa but it would be good to know if the plan is to quickly up- upscale this to store enough solar produced electricity from day one to keep the mine going throughout the night without using Eskom or diesel generators. I expect a more gradual build-up.

Not only will this reduce the mine's diesel/electricity requirements and costs it will contribute to the net carbon commitment and a real life big scale success will significantly boost the image of Redox One with other major potential customers.

Ian, I would expect it is partly buy backs. Also today is the end of the trading quarter and both the PGM basket price and chrome price are up on the previous quarter. In particular the chrome price delivered China has hit another record high of $320-325/tonne this week.

Fingers crossed for the Quarterly production report out on 10th July.

Hi Sam, I hope you are right and that the savings will be higher than my suggestion. In FY 2023 Grindrod Shipping had administrative expenses of $32.653 million which would have included costs of listing on Nasdaq and JSE. I suppose it partly depends on how quickly it happens. The Singapore courts have to approve the change before the 2 de-listings can happen so that could be months from now so I am not sure if the transaction will be reflected when the April-June trading result and NAV are announced in July. Further integration will probably run well into next year.

Effectively TMIP has spent $49.6 m or $14.25/share to buy the 17.67% of Grindrod it does not already own. By my rough calculation that is a 4 to 5% premium or about $2m premium to the current Grindrod NAV.

Hi Sam/Krusty, I agree superb news and hopefully see the share price up 2 to 3% tomorrow.

Would be good if TMI would advise the expected cost/synergy savings which I would very broadly guestimate at say $1 m / year so worth having but not a totally game changing factor.

As the supermarket says " every little helps"!

While the spot Baltic aHandysize Index is down from Q1 I expect the Q2 performance while still weak is still better than 6-12 months ago so I expect the current TMI TCE is still slowly increasing plus vessel values are up from Q1 which will add a few cents to the NAV

I suppose the big question is still the Grindrod decision , a rejection would be a serious setback but a vote in favour is a massive step forward so

figures crossed!

PGM basket down this week but hopefully offset by the new ever so slightly record high chrome price.

Hxulcolrdoh, even if Karo starts producing, at current prices chrome will still account for over half of turnover.

Chrome pricehas increased again this week.a

Ian.B, this article is 3 years old.

It mentions global new EV car sales reaching 10% by 2025 but we are already up to 14% in 2024.

Thanks Sam, yes thanks hope the same with you too!

Yes, fingers crossed for the Grindrod vote.

I agree the share price has been becalmed in the last few weeks (pun intended) .As Sam points out the Baltic Handysize Index has increased over the last 4 days after falling for most of May. But the good news is that vessel prices have continued to increase since the end of the last Quarter so that the net effect will still be positive for the current NAV.

Raxfactor, thanks for this article. Some very interesting comments although I do not agree with some of his assumptions and some of the Tharisa/Karo numbers are now well out of date.

If we accept the stated recent Johnson Matthey PGM demand/supply numbers then there is clearly a deficit in 2023 and 2024 for Pt/Pd/Rh. But this does not take into account the build up in stocks during 2021 and 2022. So for platinum stock increased 1135k in 2021, increased 472k in 2022, decreased 518k in 2023 and estimated to decrease 598k this year, but between 2021 to 2024 the cumulative figure is still an increase in stocks of 491k oz. So for me we still need to see a continuing deficit to the end of 2025 to see a big price increase. In his interim report comments, PP noted "the PGM price is ignoring the schism between supply and demand". I agree but the market sentiment seems to be sceptical of the reported deficit and stored stocks are not fully known (Russia has been a big seller to China/India in the last 2 years) while ICE demand over the next 10 years is highly unpredictable so PGM prices will require further undeniable evidence before a substantial price improvement happens but when it does the increase could be sizeable. For me we will have to wait until next year for that and between now and then further painful production cut backs will inevitably take place.

Chinese chrome concentrate imports up 10.73% for Jan-April 2024 compared to same period last year and the chrome concentrate price is now at a 6 year high. Each one $ increase in the price adds $150,000 to Tharisas monthly turnover.

Viable- I agree that the Redox technology offers fantastic potential but with other competing technologies /routes, it will take sometime to see if it is one of the winners.

I think Maputo has already done that!

A pretty solid set of numbers for me with the usual ups and downs. Af ew comments:

* with a relatively small fair value adjustment the PGM revenue confirms the payability is nearer to 80% rather than the often mentioned 85%.

*Chrome revenue was boosted by sales exceeding production by 56,800 tonnes.

*as Moneyman has previously commented the massive bought-in ROM has boosted speciality production and Agency revenue but at the same time massively increasing cost of commodities in COS.

*mining contractor costs in COS were massive but money well spent if it keeps production going now and in the future.

*the Karo assumption figures on page 45 have reduced to 205,000 tonnes/year production and a PGM 6E grade of 2.8grams/tonne with a current open LOM of only 11 years.

*Karo capital for H2 only around $38m so looks more in tick over mode rather than 2025 production mode to me.

*Net cash flow of $86.2m and net cash of $86.2m are excellent.

* as others have stated, I too was disappointed that the interim dividend is only 1.5 cents but I am will to give the Company the benefit of doubt and see what the total figure for the year will be. If current PGM/chrome price are maintained then H2 should be better than H1 and for the full year I expect PAT $83 m so total dividend 4.5 c( interim 1.5, final 3.0).

*a brief mention on the transition to underground but I would like to see considerably more in the FY accounts as I think it will be much sooner than most of us are expecting and so more costly.

*no mention of the recent friction with the village local to Tharisa .

....either 2.0 or hopefully 2.25 cents interim dividend.

With the expected range now 12.5-13.5 cents this is down a little from my guestimate of 13.6 cents which suggests the result will be "clean". I suspect the Cost of Sales will be a little higher than I expected and as Moneyman has mentioned, that we continue to buy- in significant Reef Of Mine.

Hopefully net cash will be nearer $80m than $70m.

Moneyman, Good point about SA rules requiring a SENS/RNS if accounts expected to be variable by more/lower than 20% for same period last year. My estimated numbers assumed a ~22% reduction so the lack of any SENS/THS bodes well for the actual numbers on Thursday.

The current quarterly Tharisa PGM price of around $1413 is the highest quarterly figure since April- June last year while the current chrome quarter price to date of $305 is a record high so this bodes well for H2.

TT, I use www.ferroalloynet.com chrome ore analysis but as I am not a member you can only view the first line or two of each story but it is enough (you have to go through the "I am not a robot" log-in).

Ian.B, thanks and good if we all continue to contribute!

This week the platinum price has reached its highest price so far this year and this week the chrome price delivered China has increased to $308-311/tonne.