Member Info for Mike1959

Oufc, the 7,452 shares in a week were only on the J'burg Stock Exchange, it addition there were also 362,595 on the LSE so 360,047 in total, so above average.

Sam, thinking about it a bit more I think the main reason is that when the SCR completes on 16th August, TMI will have to pay out $49.6m cash (for the 3,479,225 Grindrod shares it does not already own at $14.25/share). The 2 vessel sales for gross proceeds of $48.35 m or net probably about $47.4 m will almost match this. Outstanding debt for TMI and Grindrod was $330.8 m at the end of March but increased to $338.3 m at the end of June.

As highlighted in the Q1 Factsheet, buying out these Grindrod shares at $14.25/each when their NAV is about $20.2/share will be immediately accretive, adding over $24m to the TMI total NAV or over 7c/share increasing the end of June NAV of $1.52 to nearly $1.60/share from 16th August (based on the end of June numbers).

When the July-September Factsheet is out it will include Grindrod as a wholly owned subsidiary.

Again a solid set of numbers with the NAV up from $1.48 to 1.52. Ed says post SCR this will increase to $1.60 which I cannot yet understand so I will have to get my head round that.

I agree selling the 2024 Handysize looks strange but emphasises the concentration on getting the total debt down and possibly the view that vessel prices might be peaking and we did get a 0.3% premium to fair market value.

....excellent point oufc, we could well be 100% underground at Tharisa within 10 years.

Sam, thanks for the nod.

as at March 2024 the top 8 shareholders owned 48.35% and the directors/executives 0.72% (compared to 47.9% and 0.45% the year before).In 2023 Fidelity owned 9.80%, the second biggest shareholder and CG Asset Management 6.45% the 6th biggest shareholder, both have totally sols out.

Most of the others seem to be stable, the biggest shareholder, Christian Oldendorff has actually increased from 10.31% in 2023 to 15.03% in 2024. Oldendorff Carriers are the biggest dry bulk shipping company in Germany and seem to be in for the long-term.

Good to see West Yorkshire Pension Fund in there with 4.23%, I am sure the high dividend is the main reason.

Most of the others look like the usual asset management companies which will continue to run a good holding but might want to exit what they perceive as a loss making industry or business. Barbarossa appears in 2024 with 3.15% and I remember we discussed them last year.

Otherwise for me, we just see the usual comings and goings but 5 of the big shareholders in 2023 are still there in 2024 so pretty steady overall. This year the business has steadily improved and hopefully will continue to do so in the rest of the year.

Thanks Ilja, this is both interesting and surprising. I remember we were previously told the 40 MWp solar plant would provide nearly 70% if the electricity used at the Tharisa mine, below now says only 30% of Tharisa'S ENERGY needs. I see the Etana agreement will come on stream in 2026. We were advised that construction of the 40MWp solar plant would start latest June just gone with commercial operation late this year/early 2025. But with the strategic review of Chariot Transitional ongoing I wonder if this has been delayed or possibly scaled back so in that respect the Etana agreement is good news.

All, good to see everyone chipping in!

Sam, thanks for your angle on the major shareholders , I will take look but out of interest can you please advise where do you get your shareholder information from?

Sam/Krusty, I have had a look through the annual accounts and they look like solid numbers and match the unaudited quarterly NAV numbers showing that the TM I bean counters know what they are doing.

With the buy-out of the remaining shares TMI say they are considering all investment options including to "collapse and reorganise the existing Grindrod corporate structure". The directors of TMI and Grindrod will be merged and surprisingly Chris Buttery will not stand for re-election at the next AGM.

TMI has assessed the current fair value of Grindrod at NAV which is higher than I expected at $20.04/share so the remaining 16.78% of Grindrod shares have been bought at $14.25 or a 29% discount to NAV.

Based on these solid numbers I expect the numbers on Friday to be at the higher end of my previous expectation say NAV increasing by 4 to 4.5 cents to $152 to $152.5c/share, the highest level since July 2023 and I hope that would add 2 to 3p to he share price (the share price was 78p on 26th April when the Q4 NAV came out).

if you want a bit of fun and check out where some of the Group vessels are then have a look at www.vesselfinder.com and click on vessels and add a name . For example the HB IMABARI, which is the new new 2024 build recently added to the Grindrod fleet has just arrived at Tauranga, New Zealand while the IVS PHOENIX has just arrived at Richards Bay, South Africa. On Friday I expect the fleet to have dropped from 39 to 38 vessels.

Likewise I totally agree on the excellent balanced input from Krusty. We already now most of the information for the last financial year (although like you I will go through the full annual report) and look forward to the latest NAV on Friday. I expect one confirmed vessel sale on Friday.

Have a great day too.

Sam/Krusty, I think it is worth differentiating between ongoing operational efficiencies and the added efficiencies from buying out the remaining Grindrod shareholders at a premium price and allowing us to delist in the US and South Africa.

The ongoing operational efficiencies have been gradually happening anyway without the delisting, these include shared global offices, combined CEO and COO, combining insurance, finance, docking costs and decision making.

In FY 2022 Grindrod administrative expenses were $48.069m but in FY 2023 this dropped to $32.653m, although admittedly most of this reduction will be due to the reduction in vessels and head count/reduced bonuses but there will be some significant operational savings.

The delisting will certainly cut costs further , a Nasdaq listing for a company with 10 to 50 million shares costs $65,000/year but there will be other significant regulatory fees such as lawyers, auditing every 3 or 6 months, distributing interim and final accounts and a raft of other requirements such as independent directors, audit committee etc. But for me the operating benefits will dramatically out weigh the savings from delisting.

I do agree the chain of command will be considerably clearer. As we know the commercial vessel decisions for both companies was transferred to Grindrod last year.

According to the TMI website the annual report for the last financial year will be out next Tuesday 23rd July and the NAV for the April-June quarter will be out on Friday 26th July.

Ilja, thanks for correcting the Tharisa PGM basket price on the website to $1408.71/oz and the Karo price to $1279.27/oz.

Sotolo-according to my calculation, in H2 chrome will contribute 66% of revenue, if you include Agency (effectively the specialist chrome grades and 3rd party chrome production) the number increases to 77%. My H2 AISC for PGM's is around $350/oz so we are still making good money out of PGM's at the current strong chrome price. The chrome price would have to drop below $230/tonne before PGM'S are unprofitable. Anyway it is not an option just to mine one and not the other at the same time.

I totally agree that Karo is a no go unless PGM prices rise and anyway the full funding is not in place.

Thanks Sotolo, 3-6 months ago I would have said the Tharisa composition was Pd 56.4%/Pd 17.7%/Rh 9.6%Au 0.2% Ru 11.5%/ Ir 4.6% but currently I think it is nearer Pl 52.6%/Pd 15.7%/Rh 8.9%/Au 0.4%/Ru 16.7%/Ir 5.7% which should reduce your PGM calculation.

On the Karo I know you mean revenue, I wish it was profit!

Also the exchange rate is holding us back at the moment.

The quarterly production figures last week suggests that the Tharisa PGM basket composition has changed more than usual from the previous quarters (lower Pt/lower Pd/lower Rh), this is possibly reflecting the use of bought-in Reef (although this is significantly down on the previous 6 months) or that the composition in the recently opened up areas has changed.

The weekly Tharisa PGM price on the Tharisa website for week ending 12th July is currently $1279.27/oz (lower that the Karo basket price of $1301.59), I hope that this is just a typo and that the number should read $1379.27/oz?

Thanks Sam, quicker than I expected.

Although approved it might still take a few weeks to impliment on Nasdaq an JSE.

Ian, as you say some large "unknown" trades but some of them just seem to be too big for Tharisa buy-backs, for example the 940,971 traded at 13.51.24. We have seen some unusual buys and sells in the last 10 days or so, hopefully know more next week.

Likewise.

Ian/Raxfactor, I agree a really solid set of numbers and a rather muted response on the share price. In particular the net cash was higher than I expected reflecting most of the profit is still dropping out as cash and capex at Karo is on a drip-feed. Again the reef mined was much higher than I expected which is promising for production in the last quarter of the financial year and allows us to cut back on bought-in ROM which benefits the bottom line. Finally, recovery of both PGM and chrome up and good to see PP mention that plans are progressing on transitioning to underground development in the west pit and I think the time scale for this might surprise a few people. My only tiny niggle is that the results mention that the 40MW solar project continues to progress but it was not confirmed that construction had actually started by the end of June.

Hi Moneyman, thanks for your comments. Fortunately Tharisa just run their own diesel generators if load shedding kicks in Just hope the drier seasonal weather helps the numbers. In particular, with the contracted waste teams I am looking for a recovery in the reef mined to allow for the bought-in reef to be gradually reduced.

The Zimbabwe government should know the situation but will keep the pressure on and the current interpretation of the special economic zone benefits still seem to be in question. With the current chrome price I wonder if the Company is rethinking about taking Salene Chrome out of month-ball.

The April-June production numbers are out on Wednesday.

My estimate is PGM 36,500 oz, chrome 420,000 tonnes, reef mined 1,060,000 tonnes.

At the current PGM basket price I expect Karo will eventually be delayed another 12 months so that net cash should be up on the end of March number.

Any other opinions?

A bit of profit-taking in the last 2 days but at current prices , chrome is contributing over 75% of revenue.