Member Info for Mike1959

All, since we discussed the expected NAV for the current quarter on 14th Nov the TC's and vessel values have continued to ho south and probably knocking another 2 to 3 cents off the NAV so we could do with this changing pretty quickly.

Enjoy the sunshine Sam.

Guys, we went through this last year.Tharisa already owned 75% so by paying out $20m they are effectively paying themselves $15m or effectively paying $5m for the extra 1.22% which equates to $400m for the full 100%, which still sounds an incredibly high number at the moment given our market capitalisation but hey ho.

I agree the results today are really solid and the company has delivered what it promised but there are massive questions going forward:

the profit after tax today was $82.6m but based on the current chrome/ pgm basket that number would probably drop to around $35m for the current number giving a forward PE of about 8 to 9 so we really need the prices to recover.

The Tharisa move to underground mining will require increased capex and will increase costs per tonne.

We were previously told that Karo would be delayed to June 2025 and today just mentions further delays.

We were told that the Chariot/Total Erin solar farm would start construction earlier this year and be completed and start early next year but no news on this at all.

At the moment the potential of Redox One, chrome alloys is immense but it is still a case of bread tomorrow.

Looks like the chrome price is down about $20/tonne this week which will be the lowest level for over 18 months and if it stays there and pgms do not recover will our forward 2025 PE over 8 compared to about 3.1 expected next week

Hi Moneyman64, good point but the JSE SENS requirement only applies if the new numbers are expected to be up or down by 20% or more fromthe previous numbers which I do not think they will be. I am expecting turnover to be up 13%, profit after tax up 4% and total dividend of 4.5 to 5c compared to total 5c last time. So this time I do not expect any early announcement.

I agree with you on the dividend policy and Karo and that the only hope is for a significant recovery in PGM prices which I think will eventually happen but later rather than sooner.

The annual accounts are out on 28/11. Tharisa has said much about financial prudence so I cannot see that the stated dividend policy should change.So as I have mentioned before I am expecting the final dividend to be 3 to 3.5 cents on top of the H1 interim dividend of 1.5 cents.

Riverboy,good to know we broadly agree. Likewise I agree there are alot of factors in the air. This is why I want to see a reasonable profit after tax on 05/12 as a short term indicator but the long term indicator for a businesslike ours has to be nav and at some point we will need to start buying vessels again.The 2c dividend is costing $6.6m every 3months but the debt repayment is more than this so I think this needs to change by selling off a few more older handys.

Hi Sam/all, the next update on 05/12 will be the financial results for April to September and they will confirm that the unaudited nav reported on 25/10 of $1.48/ share has been audited and confirmed.

The unaudited nav for the current quarter, Oct to Dec will be published late January 2025. We are about 6 weeks in and during that time spot time charters have dropped to their lowest levels in 6 months and vessel values have dropped to levels last seen in June, as you say on the plus side we have costs savings from the SCR coming through plus lower interest rates and debt reduction. But at this time I would expect the nav for the current quarter to be 1 46 to 1.47 but we still have 7 weeks to go and we saw a massive TC increase in December last year.

The Trump win is still being assessed, talk of tariffs sounds bad for international trade but any tariffs are likely to be on high added products rather than the raw material commodities moved by bulkers and if it is inflationary it could actually increase world trade.

Sam,fingers crossed!

BHSI down for the last 12 days but an encouraging purchase of 372,906 on TMI today.

The interim accounts are out on 5th Dec and my rough calculation for 6 months profit after tax is USD 15 million which annualises at PE 11 and return on assets 6.2% which is respectable.

Sotolo, platinum and palladium up again today and by my reckoning that makes the Tharisa pgm basket price $1495, the highest since June last year.

Sotolo,yep.

Sam, probably yes.

If you have a look at the Q2 Factsheet on the TMI website in the NAV Bridge and Components they show profit for the period (this is after allowing for interest charges) $0.01/ share of about S3.3m less fair value loss i.e like for like value of vessels $0.02/ share or about $9.9 m less dividend paid $0.02/ share or about $6.6m gives the reduction in NAV of 4 cents/share from 152 to 148 cents/share. So in the quarter the dividend is double the profit before the dividend payment or taking the dividend payment into account the result was actually a loss. We cannot keep relying on vessel values to increase in fact with no change in vessel values we should natuaraaly expect the vessel value to reduce say 1.25% each quarter just because they are 3 months older.

I do not want to sound overly negative but as

Krusty has questioned, we are on a real knife edge. Like you I remain posative and that is why I am still invested but the concern is real.

Hi Sam/Krusty, I agree on most of what you say but as usual, Sam you are much more bullish than me.

The dividend cover is below 1 so it has been financed out of increased vessel values which cannot increase indefinitely as the vessels get older. The Grindrod SCR savings of around $16 m/year will take some time to implement so we might save say $2 to3m in the current quarter. The combined debt at the end of June was $338.3m at say 6.25% interest that is $5 3m each quarter on interest, with the reduction in debt to $282.7 m and lower interest rate the interest could be say $4m ithe current quarter. But the 2c dividend each quarter costing $6.6m. Current TCE's are still lower than the last 2 quarters. Krusty- the reason why the debt to gross assets ratio has not improved as much as you had expected is because wehad to buy-out the remaing Grindrod minority shareholders. Selling vessels to reduce debt is the right thing to do but with less vessels it just means that fixed costs per vessel increases. The fleet average age has actually increased to 10.9 years from 10.4 last quarter as one of the vessels sold was only 4 years old and the other vessels are now 3 months older.

I am disappointed by the NAV down to $1.48which was well below my expectation of 156 to 157, the main factor seems to be the like for like vessel valuation of $646.5m which generated a loss of $26.2m .The average TCE of $14211/ day was better than I expected.

Going forward it is good to see the Grindrod SCR will generate around $16 m of savings once fully implemented and the total debt is down 16% to $282.7m.Looks like a clear out of vessels am around the high for second hand vessels, I make it that we are down from 38 at the end of June to 35 now with 3 more agreed for sale so we will be dropping down to 32.

Thanks shareminator.

The platinum price also hit a 5 month high today.

Also a good indicator is the daily NYMEX platinum warehouse stocks which are now down to 141,429 oz the lowest for over 5 years ,down 31% since the start of this year (they peaked at over 700,000 oz during Covid in July 2021.

Also the weekly reported NYMEX Platinum Future Managed Money Short Positions are just about as low as they have been this year, currently 15,534 lots (50 oz per lot).

John, I assume the Tharisa prices are the prices they actually get from the 2 pgm refiners.

Have a look at matthey.com pgm prices which should be close enough, for today they are currently showing pt 1045, pd 1088, rh 4750,or 4650, ru 485. Unfortunately no gold price but it makes up less that 0.5% of the Tharisa basket and you can get that elsewhere.

Glad we got there in the end. Yes, some interesting trading in the last few days.

I am still expectingthe NAV announced on Friday as at the end of September to be 156 to 157/share so that the business is still loss making without the vessel appreciation which cannot carry on indefinitely.

Hi Sam, I have just checked Hellenic Shipping news and can see the 53% and 45% increases are the actual Baltic indices while the numbers I quoted are the actual Pacific Basin performances.

....I am quoting quarterlyfigures too, Handysize Q324 $13740, Q323 $10200, that is a 35% increase.

Supramax Q324 $12220, Q323 11640.

As you say they had a bad Q324 number which was down from $13780 the previous quarter.

Sam, thanks for the info but on p.5 of their presentation Pacific Basin say daily TCE earnings in Q3 are up 35% Year on Year for Handysises and 6% for Supramaxs.

As you say, fingers crossed for Friday.