Member Info for Mike1959

I make it less than 0.5% different.On AIM 42.25 to 42.35p. On JSE 10.09 to 10.11 Rand @ exchange rate 23.79 = 42.41 to 42 50p.

Bustard, totally agree that we need to look at the long term. As you say the gold price over $3000 is a massive boost , now we have to wait and see how successful the Company is at hitting the higher production targets and lower AISC.

Mulder,

We all have a tiny piece of a big jigsaw which means we do not understand what is happening in the big picture or understand the driving forces behind the bigger sellers or buyers.

Just because you do not understand it you should not cry manipulation. That is the idea of a market, to bring together a multitude of buyers and sellers with totally different views and opinions, some will be right and some will be wrong.

For PAF the major market is JSE , and LSE ,the minor market so with S Africa 2 hours ahead and closing at 3pm UK time, the illiquid market after 3pm UK time appears to attract more sellers. If so just do your sales in the morning and any buys late afternoon.

If you go to the authorities you need actual evidence rather than wild opinions.

Likewise Riverboy. Sam is still trying to be positive but to me the Jan-March numbers still look like being a disaster. As Kristof points out there has been a marked improvement in TC's in the last 4-6is weeks. The BHSI is up 65% from its low on 4th Feb and currently 7.91% up since the start of the year but this is just too late to save the Quarter. Also the main hit will be from lower vessel values, 10 year old Supras are down about 10% since the end od Dec and Handys about 10% so I expect like for like vessel values to be down well over $40 million knocking over 8% off the end of Dec NAV before any hits from elsewhere.

Hopefully starting from April, all of the bad news is behind us and TC's continue to improve. Ditto GLA

A new high of $3086 this morning, currently $3073.

Hi shareminator,my interpretation is that the Public Investment Corporation, as a state owned entity, just see PAF as a good investment in listed equities and do not have any plan to try a takeover.

I could be wrong.

The Van Eck increase explains the high volume last Friday and appears to be separate from the Tembo Capital offload last week.

The 0.03% increase in the short position last Thursday represents around 600,000 shares. On Friday we had over 22 million buys compared to 2 million sells so I expect this to go up tomorrow particularly with JSE open again.

Mulder, it is a public holiday in South Africa.the JSE price you quote is from close of yesterday.

Fastmarkets showing a new high for gold today of $3057.45/oz although currently in $3030,s.

The Tharisa pgm basket price on the website on Monday was $1496.57 which is the highest since June 2023 while the chrome price tomorrow looks like being $5 to 10/ tonne up on last week, I still think this will be too late to make the current H1 profitable but it does bode well for a decent recovery in H2.

Hi Sam, in the Q3 review we were told that 60% of forward TCE earnings to the end of March had already been covered at $12,451/day,and I have calculated an average of $10,900/day for the remainder 40% so an overall average for Jan- March of around $11,830/day compared to $12,150/day for Oct to Dec. As you say, we will know on 25th April.

Raxfactor, thanks for the link. Some interesting comments, I had missed the Methanox investment announced on 27th Feb although I don't quite understand how that fits in with our business.. Chrome price today is still $260/tonne which should now average around $231/tonne for the current quarter.

The Jan-March production report will be out on 9th April and I will particularly be interested in the net cash number.

Guys, after a big drop in TC's and since early Feb a strong recovery, ironically the BHSI today is up on the beginning of January for the first time this year but with just 18 days left in March , which is also the end of the financial year, it will probably be too late to save the current Quarter from being absolutely dismal. the Jan- March NAV and trading update will be published on 25th April but I am now expecting the closing NAV per share to be below $1.08/share compared to $1.28/share at the start, a drop of over 15% and this will be the lowest NAV since the Company floated back in 2021. $1.08/share NAV with a continuing discount of around 35% converts to a share price of around 54p so below the current share price. The biggest damage has been caused by falling vessel values , I reckon 10 year old Supra's are down over 7% and Handy's over 10% since the start of January but are now showing early signs of going the other way.

The Board is committed to further reducing the debt to assets ratio which was 35.4% at the end of Dec but with falling vessel values the only way this could be achieved would be to sell more vessels so I would not be surprised if we were below 28 in total at the end of March. We have to be prepared for a big loss for the full year to 31st March accounts which will be out on 18th July. As Sam has commented below Mr Trumps tariffs threat has decimated our business and shipping confidence.

Hopefully with the start of the next financial year in April we will see a massive improvement to push the business forward . We have all said before that the management team are doing a great job but the cards have largely been stacked against them for most of the last 12 months. With the recent change in company structure I think we need to be honest with ourselves and expect that like most other businesses the dividend pay-out will be linked to our profitability which for the next 12 months I believe will almost certainly be less than 2 cents dividend each quarter.

I am sorry if this sounds negative but this is just my view and I could be totally wrong and am certainly open to other valued opinions. For what it is worth I did sell half of my shares in Jan but will continue to hold the rest as I believe in the future of the business, average price 84p, but they now represent only 1% of my total investments.

As Krusty says, GLA.

Mulder, I think you are reading too much into this. The market might not be rational but it is what it is.

At the moment there are over 10 million shares traded on JSE and less than 0.9 million in London so the big action is in S Africa and nothing to do with the FCA.

In the words of Benjamin Graham " in the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine". Let us do the weighing is just under 3 months when we have the actual quarterly production numbers and the gold price locked in.

Mulder/Patrick, at the moment there are 3.78 million trades on JSE and 1.2 million on LSE today so most of the action so far is on JSE.

At the moment there offer volume on JSE is 58,980 at Rand 8.38 compare to the much smaller bid volume of 2,o95 at Rand 8.34. So just more selling interest than buying interest at the moment.Let us see when it ends up at the close of business.

Yes, fantastic news about rhodium.

And yes, the forward earnings should start to improve but I am still expecting the first half of the financial year up to the end of .arch to be slightly loss making.

As moneyman suggests, we need the Pgm basket up 400/oz+ to make Karo look sensible.

Shareminator, good point about the rhodium price which has gone up $750/oz this week and should push the Tharisa basket price back above $1400oz on Monday.

Welcome back!

You are correct , I had missed the million which is not showing in the LSE list of Director deals for TMIP above.I now agree that that is " huge "and a great mark of confidence!

Hi Sam, 3 x 12,500 purchases in 3 days is great although I would not class as huge.

BHSI has steeply recovered since 5th Feb and currently 4% down since the start of the year. We need vessel values to do the same before the end of March

to avoid the next nav dropping to levels last seen in 2021 when TMIP first started.

Are you still in Ko Samui or are you back home?