Member Info for Mike1959

Yes, the gold price is up, Perigrine Capital now own over 5% and continuing good news coming out of Australia.

Emmerson Resources and TCMG have formally agreed the White Devil gold deposit as a major mine in their JV, so ER will now contribute 40 % of the Costs and receive 40% of the gold value (less transport and processing costs at the Noble Nob CIP plant). While the Golden Forty gold project has formally been agreed as a small mine JV so that TCMG will gain 100% control but pay ER a 6% gross royalty on the gold produced. Finally TCMG has chosen Mineral Mining Services as contractor to start the Nobles project to mine 3 open pits to a maximum depth of 90 metres and employing 70. In the words of the original Jaws film, " weekly are going to need a bigger [CIP plant]"!

Bustard, as you say in the 2025 accounts gold sales were 196,926 oz and production 196, 527 oz so effectively unchaged but the current inventory increased from $16.431 m to $ 38.887 m. In the notes $5.737m was due to the increase in value of spare parts around $18m is described as " current proportion of long-term inventory" which I would assume is the value of tailings (including tailings in TCMG) that they expect to process in the next 12 months (to classify as a current asset).

The long term inventory in non- current assets increased from 12.263 m to $25.898m which i assume are the value of quantified tailings that they will not process in the next 12 months. Remember this is partly due to more owned tailings but also reflects the increased gold price.

Wow that sounds very exotic, obviously off to spend part of you gold profit. Hope you have a wonderful and safe trip !

Bustard, just to let you know I ran your numbers ,275,000 oz,gold $3650,AISC $1650 through my spread sheet and got Prifit After Tax of $350m so we are only $6 m apart.

Interesting massive top up announced today by Perigrine Capital.

..is due to the current excitement in the share price when possibly the excitement overtakes the actual reality. Unfortunately we have to accept the gold price trend will eventually change, hopefully later rather than sooner

Waterloo, you are a gentleman! We all make slight errors but how you react is what counts and we are all in this together.

Bustard,

As a mining company rapidly expanding like ours , I expect production to exceed sales,that last bit of production never quite gets out of the door. But hey, your calculation and mine are both in the same area so we are both right and wrong until the actual numbers are out, as we keep saying, lots of ifs and buts and alot can change , good and bad. I expect the latest short position i

Fat fingers, Sorry..... on p.21 of the accounts PAF explained their 2926 dividend policy, 40 to 50% of net generated cash less certain exceptions,wish I calculate as very roughly 4.4p/ share at current exchange rates or roughly a dividend yield of5.7% at the current share price. But looks like no interim divi but the actual figure for 2025 is considerably higher than I had expected.

Depends on the terms of a possible take over if they paid based on PE of 12 + based on expected 2026 Profit After Tax then no problem, we effectively double our current value !

Waterloo, interestingly it is not Arrowstreet increasing there short which has not changed since 7th July, rather a new 0.53% short by Millenium International Management LP.

Incidentally I have rechecked my expected 2025 PAT. PAF are suggesting a AISC of $1525 to 1575/oz based on $ ZAR at 18.50. But with inflationary pressures I calculate then cannot hit this unless production is at top end of the 275,099 to 292,000 oz range and the average exchange rate so far this quarter is 17 70 so my conservative 2026 AISC is$1664/oz and assuming the Emmerson Resources costs go into royalties I expect the royalties cost to increase (remember there are no royalties on our tailings operations, only the mines). So based on average gold price $3600, AISC $1664/oz and production 275,000 ozs my expected Prorit After Tax is now $337 million.

On page 21 of t

Patryk, I agree, it might be a temporary setback but the fundamentals talk for themselves.

Anyway the prospectus says the index changes could change before 19th September. Hopefully they will clock the increase in PAF since their article in June and reindex accordingly.

I do not read any demons, they are expected to tell their investors well in advance of any material index changes or risk bad publicity at best and being sued and losing investors at worst. Presumably the reindexing will be done over several months, I remember Van Eck reducing their shareholding about 4 months ago and look what has happened since then.

We can carry this possible slight knock back. Ironically if they do sell , if we relate as many have suggested, as this is a passive index then they will be buying back in , in 6 to 12 months at higher prices!

Jay, thanks for your info, I have found the reindexing information and agree your numbers. Fortunately it says it will transition so the PAF Shares will not all be sold off on day one.

I must admit that I simply cannot understand why the reindexing does not include PAF given our £1.55 billion market cap and that we are 100% a gold miners, can't please all the people all the time!

.....yes, I suspect it is the listing in Johannesburg which should be the same. What market cap does it show and what adjustment after the rendering on 19th Sept, plus or negative?

I would expect if it is number 57 then the adjustment, if any, will not be great but you never know.

Hi guys, hope you are well. Just to show you that i am checking in occasionally! I see the BHSI today is above 800 for the first time since 2nd January 2024 and up over 40% so far this year. GLA.

Jay, thanks for pointing that out. I am only on my phone until I get home so the numbers were too small for me, I will take your word for it!

Patryk,

With the gold price changing so quickly and the different timing of accounts there is a certain amount of leap frogging but for the big 5 I reckon the dividend yield are Eandeavour 5.7%, PAF 1.9%, Fresnillo 1.1%, HOC 0.7% , Greatland nil.

PAF is currently included in the GDX but not the GDXJ but it was not mentioned or shown on rhe spreadsheets in the presentation BT interesting.

GDXJ is currently trading at an equivalent PE of around 19!

Rookie, welcome to the board, we did finally go up late yesterday but lost it today. This is usually after a big rise and the accounts come out.

Bustard/Waterloo, i agree with your comments.

Patryk, I agree with the others that the share price is just a function of the number of shares and so it is better to look at market cap or EPS but I do understand where you are coming from. It can be difficult to compare companies when they have different year ends and the gold price, and for HOC, is changing g so quickly. But today HOC is the 4th biggest gold/ silver miner on London with a market cap of £1.74 billion while PAF is 5th with market cap of £1.55 billion. according to Stockopedia today HOC has a forward PE of 9.16 while ours is nearer to 6. So I agree with what you were trying to say that PAF should overtake HOC in terms of market cap in the next 6 to 12 months as our share price will increase faster. But we need hard proof of this growth along the way.

Incidentally the top 3 London gold/ silver miners by market cap are Fresnillo £15.9b, Endevour £6.6b, Greatland £2.1 b

Bustard, ad you mentioned yesterday it is always good to take in opposing views.

Yes, our numbers are incredibly close and we know alot will change in the rest of this year.

While incredibly positive onPAF I am possibly slightly more conservative/cautious than you, I think we still need some good news and markers for the share price to go above 90p, we possibly should expect some turbulence in the few months until we get more concrete news,hopefully this is when the share buyback kick in.

All the recent evidence points to gold prices staying where they are or even increasing so it is easy for us to get carried away but as we have both said before lots of ifs and buts...

Hope you are right but I am not sure if the US can do without Russian palladium. If it was to happen the price could go up 50% leaving just S Africa/ Zim and secondary recycled grades as the only serios option.

I agree, a solid set of numbers. The dividend was higher than I had expected and the net borrowing bang on. My tiny gripe was that the AISC was up to $1600 but on 11th June, just 19 days before the end of the year, PAF expected it to be between $1550 to 1575,blaming higher unit costs at the underground mines and higher electricity/reagent costs but I would have expected them to have them calculated pretty solidly. Otherwise excellent!

Based on gold averaging $3500 , production 275,000 oz and AISC $1525/oz i know calculate 2026 Profit After Tax as $346 million or using gold at $3600 Profit After Tax as $365 million.Unfortunatelt the 2026 AISC guidance of $1525 to 1575 is using USD ZAR exchange rate of 18.50 and at the moment we are about 17.7 and I expect inflationary pressures to increase when the business is buoyant.

A new dedicated CIL plant for the Soweto Cluster could require a $30 to 40 million investment.

The forward PE had been around 7 for the last few years, with the move to the main market and greater geographical spread I can see that increasing to 9 to 10 but I would not want to work on 12. But who knows!

The deferred stripping asset is the Tharisa mine, at the moment there is only mining at Karo to feen the pilot plant.

Bustard, i was somewhat dismissive about joining the main market but after checking out the PE's of the 4 bigger miners, 3 are on the main market while GGP are still on AIM but with their main listing recently transferred to the SX200.They all have considerably higher forward PE's. So on reflection I agree with your assessment that the main market will be a big bonus for us albeit. will only happen in December and we still have to deliver the promised bigger numbers