Member Info for Mike1959

Sotolo, we are effectively 4 months into the first half, using the actual prices for the first 4 months and the current prices for the next 2 months by my calculations H1 will be a loss before tax of - $5 million and using the current prices for H2 , I calculate of loss before tax of around -$20 million for the full financial year. We have got to be in cost cutting mode at these levels which could see production suffer. Only my numbers and a long way to go. Open to other numbers from anyone. The chrome price has got to recover in the next few weeks.

Yes, the chrome price peaked at $322.5 on 12th July last year and down to $202.5 now.

Purchases outweighed sales today but the share price still goes down which is strange.

Thanks Ilja.

Hi Sam,thanks for taking my comments the right way, it is all a judgement and time will tell if we get it right or not. I must admit that I sold half of my holding on Friday morning but will retain the rest ,just a matter of reducing my total risk while staying in the game.

For me it makes sense to change from a closed investment company where there are lots of individual companies which are effectively individual ships and offices manages by a central company and probably has more layers of cost. A public Limited company allows the company to reduce some costs,

be more flexible on dividend payments and when the shipping industry turns round the company can raise more share to buy new ships rather than only having the option to borrow. At the moment ship values are still above their historical levels but this will e entually change and it will be time to buy. As Krusty has said

we cannot just continue paying the dividend if the business cannot afford it.

The management have skin in the game and are showing how knowledgeable they are. Fortunately the business is still at a premium compared to when it started although the last 24 months have been tough. It looks like the period of heavy vessel sales is over and the business will settle down. But we need some good fortune in the way of rising TC's and eventually vessel values. The management has the best intentions but if things go sour then vessels are always highly liquid financial assets and a merger or takeover

Could be possible and hopefully nearer to the full NAV.

I am still committed here but just wanted to put some balance onto how I see things but always willing to listen and understand other views.

Hi Sam,fine if you are in for the long haul and we all have our own methods.The 20 c drop in NAV very roughly represents a loss in the Quarter after tax of -$53 million after a PAT of $13.9 million in Hi, the current Q4 also looks like being loss making so the loss after tax for the full year looks like being -$50 to 60 m after a loss of -$53.48 m in the previous financial year.

The facts are the facts. I agree about a fantastic and forward thinking management aligned to shareholders but as I have said before this business is highly cyclical and the company might be in the upper 20% of shipping companies but ultimately it cannot buck the market. Having invested money and time in our investments we can all get too emotionally attached.

I suppose the crunch date is the ex dividend date on 6th February.

He is back but I assume the numbers are so low and disappointing that they have just decided to stop publishing weekly and also just to keep a low profile in a difficult situation. Today I make the Tharisa pgm basket $1391, Karo $1298 and the chrome price $202.5

The Chinese Lunar holidays are just starting so probly next price in 2 weeks which I expect to be up.

Interesting that the VFEX recently issued abridged 2024 accounts for Karo Mining Holdings,NAV were $100.9 million and that between Oct to Dec a further 1782 share in KMH were issued to Tharisa plc for $12.8 million.

Sorry Sam but I share Krusty's view that the NAV is a terrible number despite all of the contained good news. I had expected the NAV to be down from 148 cents at the end of Sept to 143 c before allowing for the 4c special divi or 139 cents after allowing for the special divi.

But the 20 cent reduction in NAV based on 330.2 million share is a massive $66 million reduction in total NAV. I cannot get my head round this $66m reduction, the latest vessel valuation looks sensible so i will do more digging and report back.

The big problem is that this is at the end of Dec, since then the BHSI has reduced by over 25% making spot TC's loss making while vessel values have fallen about 4% currently knocking a further$21 m off that NAV.

The big shippers are still reluctant at the moment to use the Red Sea but this might change soon and potential tariffs from Trump are not helping, we need a massive bounce after the Chinese Spring Festival was is starting today, if not then we could see another big share price drop at the end of Feb when the special divi is paid and the NAV will be lower by the end of March (by that time we will be a Limited public company rather than a closed-fund investment trust).

The weekly chrome/pgm prices have now disappeared from the Tharisa website.

....likewise my average is also 84p!

Highest 113p in April 2022 and lowest 67p in December 2023.

Hi Ilja, just wondering if you plan to reply or was your question just rhetorical?

Nimrod, a long story but you are right that THS is trading on a massive discount to NAV and a crazy low enterprise value.Based on current pgm and chrome price there will be no profit or dividend this year so we need both to perk up.Thsrisa tells us it is "in an advanced stage" to securing the $226 million in debt funding to complete Karo, if this was announced it should push things up but seems unlikely to me at the moment.

Personally I go on fundamentals rather than charts or rythmes but best of luck with whatever works for you.

Yes, the last weekly numbers were reported on 6th December but Ilja usually takes a long holiday over Christmas and I suppose the latest numbers do not help.

I reckon the Tharisa pgm basket is still around $1380 /oz and the chrome price $202.5/tonne.

Yes, the last weekly numbers were reported on 6th December but Ilja usually takes a long holiday over Christmas and I suppose the latest numbers do not help.

I reckon the Tharisa pgm basket is still around $1380 /oz and the chrome price $202.5/tonne.

Oct-Dec quarterly NAV and trading update on next Friday.

Hi Ilja, thanks for your response. the numbers that I would like to know:

1. the Tharisa equity input into Karo in 2024 and later this year how was it calculated?

2. has the Total/Chariot solar farm at Tharisa started construction yet and if not why the delay and when will it start?

3. the 2024 Mineral Resource and Mineral Reserve Statement says at Tharisa "ROM production from underground mining was scheduled from 2025 when the western area transitions to underground mining from the western open-pit highwall" but there has been no confirmation that this will start later this year and the capex cost and running cost compared to the open pit?

4. you say the Tharisa LOM is actually longer but if the stated total open pit and underground combined reserve is 74.5 million tonnes reef of mine and yes the open pit production tails off but the underground production makes up for it so at an average open pit/underground production of 5.6 million tonnes/year the LOM is still 13.3 years (74.5/5.6)?

And PP has stated the aim is to increase production within 2 years to 200,000 oz PGM and 2 million tonnes chrome which would probably require improved recoveries and ROM production increasing to nearer 6 million tonnes/year. I saw the comment on the Mello presentation last night to progress underground studies to access + 60 year life but you are making some bid assumptions here and counting on inferred rather than measured/indicated resource and from the inferred resource statement both the inferred pgm and chrome grade are lower than the measured/indicated.

Just to show how things can change, the 2022 Statement had the open pit LOM as 13 years based on 5.6 million tonnes/year before ramping down to depletion in 2040 "production transitions to underground mining from 2036 onwards", now look at the numbers just 2 years later!

5. The 2024 Karo open pit proven/probable Reserve is 24.8 million tonnes which at say 2.64 million tonnes/year would require transitioning to underground in less than 10 years. Admittedly the reserve numbers would improve with higher metal prices.

6.How much is the capex investment/running costs of Redox One?

I would appreciate your comments.

Hi Sam, as you say, 23% vote against option 2 but I cannot understand why.

Share price has held up remarkably well recently, no doubt the special dividend is the main incentive so hope it does not drop too much once it is paid out. Currently I think the discount to NAV is down to about 27%.

I agree with most of the comments although I am willing to give the Company the benefit of doubt for one Quarter on the basis that they have generally been solid in previous quarters. The one bright spark was that the reef mined was higher than I had expected.

Based on these numbers the Quarter was probably loss making and based on current prices will be loss making in the current quarter so H1 is likely to be loss making with no interim dividend. Net cash fell to USD 89.8m at the end of Dec but I think could be below USD 50m at the end of March and could well be negative by the year end.

Sotolo, you are right but I still think the next chrome price movement will be upwards in the next 2-3 weeks. Raxfactor- likewise I see pgm prices only going one way from here but it could be later rather than sooner.

IanB- likewise despite the seemingly comprehensive reporting some important numbers seem to be kept from us, I see in recent media reports we are now looking for possible equity partners for Karo, still no update on the Total/Chariot solar farm at Tharisa where construction should have started months ago and according to the recent Mineral Resource an Mineral Reserve Statement proven/probable reserve ROM at Tharisa for the open pit and underground combined is now down to 74.5 million tonnes at say 5.6 million tonnes/year is less than 14 years life of mine left.

Q1 Production report now delayed until next Monday.

The 2024 Mineral Resource and Mineral Reserve Statement has recently been loaded onto the website, compared to the previous year the Tharisa Statement is marginally negative and the Karo Statement marginally posIitive. At Tharisa "ROM production from underground mining was scheduled from 2025" , although the open-pit will be ramped down over an extended period, perhaps around 7-8 years still averaging up to say 5 million tonnes ROM/year while underground mining is slowly ramped-up to maintain total overall ROM production at over 5 million tonnes/year..

The Sept-Dec 2024 production numbers are out this Thursday 9th Jan, Weather permitting, I am expecting ROM 1.24 million tonnes, reef milled 1.424 million tonnes, PGM 6E 38,000 oz, chrome excluding 3rd party 420,000 tonnes. The quarter average PGM price should be around $1395/oz and chrome around $253/tonne so the quarter will be profitable , I expect net cash to be about $100 million (end of September $108.7m).

If current PGM/chrome prices (Tharisa PGM basket $1351/oz chrome $200/tonne were to persist for the rest of the financial year (which they won't) then THS would be loss making for the full year so we need a material recovery in prices.

Unfortunately the chrome price is down again this week.

Hi optimistic riley, Iwould not expect so, it is just that we will not see the big ups and down in the quarterly vessel Fair Values when we go to a depreciation model.

I calculate that the NAV at the end of Dec will be 143 cents ( 148 cents at the end of September) which represents a 33% discount to the current share price which is roughly unchanged over the last 12 months.

A Happy Christmas to everyone!