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MLQ,
What are you talking a bout?
And if that were the case why are there discussions with multiple buyers?
''The Board has in recent months entered into a number of discussions with potential buyers concerning the BNG shallow structures''
And:
''Recently the market discount on oil produced in Kazakhstan but transported via the Russian pipeline network has all but disappeared for international consignments of approximately 70,000 barrels per month and greater.''
So they can sell their oil internationally through the Russian pipeline now with pretty much no discount.
More research needed.
MLQ rare we disagree but I think market will forward value this and oil will be going into the BRICKS.
China setting up new pipelines and oil being shipped across caspian sea.
Full value - no, a decent proportion of it - yes
Value won't be out by a supermajor til a new route to market is established, Don't forget PapaPutin has put some of his water toys into the Caspian Sea,,
Thats correct Blue but i did not sell i bottled it but have not bothered posting. I still want my 10p get out price for £72,000 but honestly think we have a shot at the 24p price of years ago . Good luck to you all.
BM,
My mistake.
Gritster and Coffeemug,
Have both stated CASP were tabled $80 million for the shallows as fact.
If CASP spent spent say $70m on developing both of the shallows they would want to factor some of that in to a sale price, say $20m? so if they were offered $80m less $20m costs that would work out at approx. $1.5 per barrel of 1P/2P oil.
So this is why I do not believe $80m has been tabled for both shallows, let alone that these two would have any incite into what bids are being tabled.
Now if someone said they'd been told a bid of $80m had been bid for one of the shallows then that would be a possible ballpark number I could accept being tabled, but even then this bid is not going to out especially from two posters on an AIM BB.
$1.50 per barrel of 1P/2P boo? yeah right.
Oh and because the 155 Well may come in next month the bid has been upped to way over $100m from three weeks ago, couldn't make it up if I tried.
To be fair, he sold out in April 2022; those comments were two years ago.
Gritster,
Stop talking nonsense.
Last month you said you're out at 3p on 3 April it's now 3.6p and almost May......so?
You do make me laugh, again from last month.
''Like i have been warning you all . Oil can hit $150 and Casp can flow a deep but it still wont top 7p.''
And now we're to believe you're in the know and being passed fly on the wall bids. lol!!
Gritster,
the timing is interesting, A5 looks like it's going to flow in 11 days time.
If that flows it gives data and funding for A7, 802 and 803.
The boat money is coming home
It could mean Kuat doesnt need to sell anything unless it is at his price.
He's shown before he understands the price of a pound note.
Hopefully yeh but thats what was on the table 3 weeks ago.
Gritster,
That was before well 155 news and the tie back to the production zone.
That's been put on there to get the negotiations to the $100+m imo.
Gritster,
If they'd spent around $70 million developing the shallows why would they accept $80 million for them or even $100 million? I'd have to say your statement as fact is incredulous at best.
Hes been offered 80 million but wants nearer 100 apparently. Dont know if thats dollars or pounds. Should hear something soon .
Rocketeer,
The current 3.6p share price includes 'some' valuation for the shallows so the bulk of the shallows current valuation would be absorbed in the $200m sales price. It wouldn't be the current share price plus sales dosh equals X but I like your thinking.
Note you don't often see a Company's cash pile valued more than the MC, the proceeds would no doubt be reflected in the share price somewhat, but it would be unlikely to be 8p + 3.6.
However, what would have a big impact on the share price regardless what the shallows were sold for would be if a Supermajor like Chevron/ Exxon bought the shallows as they'd be virtually next door best mates and first inline to buy the deeps, which in its self would be reflected enormously in the share price.
If I was a Supermajor I'd be wanting to buy the deeps too, KO may be putting any shallow/ deep sale off until the 155/ 806/ 141/ 802/ 803/ A5/ A7 wells have been drilled in the coming months for a better sales price?
Would a Supermajor want to develop the shallows while another is developing the deeps where the big oil numbers are at? I'd want the whole lot - $3 billion for the lot is nothing to the big boys.
If there are multiple bidders for the shallows then there'll be multiple bidders for the deeps, why not make KO an offer for the lot now he can not refuse?
Once an offer has been reported to shareholders for the shallow there could be a counter offer, we may have to borrow some of Divermike's popcorn. :- )
In your example you should say 6.8 + the 3.6 stockprice = 10,4P
Rocketeer,
That's 200 million dollars not pounds with 2.35 billion shares in issue next week and .80 to the $.
Interestingly WHI had the shallows at 8p a few years ago a $200m offer is about 6.8p so $200m could be conservative.
WHI has a full valuation of $2.8 billion for BNG - before WS/ Block 8 were bought.
So if the starting point will be around £200M. The stockprice will be x3 / x 4 so between Minimum price: between 12P-16P
So yeah $200 million could be a starting point, especially as we're told there in talks with multiple interested parties.
I've reasoned three different sale prices for both of the shallows one of which was based on $5 per barrel for our 40m 1P/2P Reserves - all three come out at around $200m.
After reading the WH Ireland note again I see they are pricing the 2P Reserves at a little over $8 per barrel (CASP are now getting around $33 net per barrel for local/RF sales much higher from $20 pboo years ago and when oil was around $60 pboo).
Using WH Ireland's $8 pboo that works out at $320m for 40m barrels of 1P/2P Reserves.
7 years ago Carver said they'd spent $130 million developing BNG and a large chunk of that would have been spent on developing the shallows, even more now 7 years later - $70 million? some of which will have to be factored into the sales price to boot.
So I'm thinking the $200m guestimate could be pretty conservative blowing the carry value out of the water, especially with several shallow wells drilling/ to be drilled again and into the Dolomite, new data could push up the 1P/2P Reserves higher and then there's the 'potential oil' to factor in. CASP can trade oil and may well be able to continue selling the shallow oil on as part of a deal?
So yeah $200 million could be a starting point, especially as we're told there in talks with multiple interested parties.