Member Info for Major4legs

I didn’t Sakura but would be interested in what it had to say - can you summarise it

Good question and very relevant to MTL. Political risk seems low with no opposition to speak of. Trump hasn’t changed much in Venezuela but he has spooked Nicaragua into releasing political prisoners and increased sanctions. Cuba is the most likely next target but Nicaragua is vulnerable and isolated now. Economically it’s incredibly dependent on 800,000 expats who send home money equivalent to 25% of GDP. No doubt this is a major drag on the MTL share price and means a big discount will continue to be applied. Along with a misunderstanding of how the market uses a trailing deck price of gold not spot price to value miners means MTL will remain undervalued in the eye of many emotional investors. It should still double from these levels though once La India is producing

Excellent- can we put it to rest now then and agree that the FIAT is not about to collapse- debt is high but not unprecedented and surprisingly tariffs don’t seem to have resulted in higher inflation yet! So Lee from rhe right and mainstream economists from the left have so far been proved wrong by Trump! Real blue collar wages have gone up, and although like all mid term presidents he is unpopular so far his gamble is working. It’s possible lower USD and tariffs will resurrect US manufacturing and with increased productivity from AI higher growth may reduce the debt. Or lower interest rates may allow inflation to get get out of control. Not sure it’s obvious which future plays out.Either way it’s hard to see gold decreasing significantly before miners are re-rated in 12-18 months.

Of course if you include the current Trump period Gold has massively out performed other asset classes because of the geopolitical turmoil and strategy to weaken the USD - data shows that central banks reduced buying last year and retail speculation drove it to an unsustainable high - but historically and objectively gold and silver are not good stores of wealth unless you get your entry point absolutely right- but isn’t that true of any asset and in practice impossible!

Gold’s reputation is partly illusion. 67× sounds impressive but it’s only ~9× in real terms — a 4.1% real annual return. It was exceptional specifically because 1971 was the year Nixon ended the gold standard, so gold was artificially suppressed at $35-41/oz. From most other start years, gold’s real return is ~1-2% p.a.

Lee we have done this before! But we can repeat returns from 1971 to November 2024 (pre Trump) the clear winner is equities 10% US, 8.5% UK houses and gold are broadly equal at 7.7%

I find you fascinating Lee. Generally believers in conspiracy theories are economically or politically marginalised but with 8 million shares you must be very wealthy Why are you psychologically predisposed to conspiracy theories ?

Buy MTL or another growth stock instead - much better leverage- leave the shiny stuff to the magpies

It’s even worse if you bought at the peak The 1980 inflation-adjusted peak was $190–$195 in today’s money Buyers at the 1980 top have still not fully recovered in real terms

Long term store of wealth for the inhabitants of the echo chamber but not for those who live in the real world ∙ From 1970 to ~2022 (52 years), silver went from ~$1.61/oz to ~$22/oz nominally — but inflation-adjusted, that’s less than a 2x gain, equating to roughly 1.2% annualized real return. Barely above nothing.

the silver market has broken multiple times - it’s relatively small and easily manipulated- but as most realise it’s nothing to do with the great conspiracy of fiat and paper vs physical. strange how so many intelligent people get dragged into conspiracies. a lot of things in life are counter intuitive and not common sense but populists and conspi******s won’t allow them selves to see it. dangerous times with social media providing echo chambers for all sorts of anti science conspiracies.

I have no idea where the gold price will go or when it will burst. I can’t see how it’s possible in such a liquid and fast moving global economy to return to the gold standard and I don’t think central banks will want to replace all their treasuries with gold. Even if MAGA ends with Trump the world isn’t going to want to trust the US again so I see a slow decline in the USD - what will replace it is unknown but I can’t see how gold can. Central Banks need more flexibility than a gold standard can offer. We have seen recently that the driver of the gold price has shifted from central banks to retail - that may push it higher but it also makes it more volatile which is bad for junior miners. While Trump and the MAGA gang remain in power I will stay long on gold. But apart from Lee, who is blessed with omniscient foresight, none of us do we. We have to make our own decisions based on our own appetite for risk and reward. Happy to increase my holding again if MTL pull another rabbit out like CNR that would increase the upside but I think that’s harder now with the higher gold price. GLA

Appreciate your concern Lee - but don’t agree my predictions were wrong- I was just too optimistic about geopolitics- I still think gold is in a bubble but it looks like a long lasting bubble! Attempting to time when it bursts is foolish! As is basing investing on emotion and “belief” and insulting and dismissing anyone who disagrees with you! I still hold 2 million in MTL so am happy with my exposure, I might buy back again let’s see. As you asked so nicely some of the proceeds of the 2 million I sold have gone into Thor and Caledonia which have lots of risk attached but offer a higher upside than MTL and pay dividends.

You can use FCF to estimate future valuations but regardless of what you “believe” you won’t get an accurate estimate if you use the current gold price because the wider market will “not believe” that $5,000 is sustainable. Over 2026 and 2027 the assumed future gold price will increase from the $2,000 now used if the bull run continues but it won’t get above $3,000 before 2028 regardless of what happens to the actual gold price. You can rage all you like and throw out insults at all the non believers but that is the reality.

Don’t shoot rational messengers like Sakura just because they express a counter to unfounded beliefs in an ever increasing gold price or that every MTL opportunity has a 100% chance of execution and zero risk. It was clear to all “non believers “ that Dupax was speculative . It’s not negative. This is an investment opportunity not a religious cult! La India is far less speculative but also not without risk. We should still realise 20-30p this year. Mining is risky that’s why PE ratios are low. The longer term opportunity remains unclear. I still have 2 million shares here but sold a similar amount as I can’t see a reason to keep invested here beyond 2027 once La India value is realised. Happy to be persuaded- by rational arguments not insults and religious fervour!

Any chance of you posting something factual rather than just insults?

Thanks Lee - so useful to have a poster here with direct links to Xi Jinping with “sources in the know”. Who needs facts when we have “faith” . Really appreciate you watching all the bulls****t you tubers so we don’t have to but be careful and look after your sanity.

Lee you can’t answer the crucial question- how would reverting to the gold standard avoid the problems that resulted in it being abandoned - by the UK in 1931 and the US in 1971 - how does physical gold meet the requirements of a high quality liquid asset? - I know you trust the you tubers and flat earthers that the algorithms drive you but they can’t explain how a gold standard would avoid deflation and depression in such a massively expanded capitalist world. G7 central banks don’t buy gold - that’s 25% of global GDP - other central bank purchases slowed last year (not stoped as I previously posted) the rise above $5k is driven by retail and ETF flows - it may well go higher but as we have seen this rise will be be volatile. Silver is heavily manipulated, it always has been, and can’t be trusted. Gold has its uses as an asset and has partially replaced Treasuries but it can’t fully replace it . The price of gold is not the most important factor in MTLs share price - derisking and reducing the risk discount to increase the PE ratio could give us an exponential increase not the linear increase we get from a rising gold price!

Why will it be different this time? Debt to gdp levels and inflation are not historically high. Gold price in 1980 was $850 it then fell to $292 in 1999 and didn’t recover to 1980 levels until 2008. This gold bull run looks like it still has legs but gold isn’t a one way bet G7 central banks haven’t bought any gold for years and the data is clear that non G7 banks stopped buying in 2025 so please stop repeating gold bug cultist dogma on an investment site. Let’s have a debate but save the blind faith for church!

Gold is of course widely used in jewellery and has been for ever because it is scarce and people “believe” it is a store of wealth. So in that sense it’s not as useless as bitcoin - but it can be easily replaced as it’s not it’s physical properties that give it value but its cultural properties- so I maintain that it is just another derivative a symbolic store of wealth with no intrinsic value other than trust.