Member Info for Major4legs

Found £5k down the sofa (actually sold a few THX shares) to top up at these levels

I think you have hit the nail on the head there! It’s jam today NOT jam tomorrow - markets are forward looking and until the jam tomorrow becomes more certain MTL won’t be valued based on La India resources. It’s not without risk, it’s not certain but to my mind based on available evidence it is probable. Patience.

Just offering an alternative view to yours. Whenever someone claims “to know the truth” without any evidence I look for contra opinions. Any form of group think is dangerous. The psychology of cults and conspiracy theorists is similar to populists - they look for simple answers that fit in with their prejudices/common sense/gut feelings to explain very complex problems that require complex rational solutions. FIAT currencies are here to stay but wether the USD maintains its dominance is dependent on some very complex economic and geopolitical factors

The gold bullion trade is a very complex market. Given the scale of non G7 central bank purchases of gold the correlation with ETF flows isn’t clear. Some commentators claim that China is continuing to purchase large amounts of gold but official records don’t show this. Russia has been forced to sell large quantities of its gold reserves to fund its war in Ukraine. The bull run seems to have stalled possibly because non G7 central banks have achieved their strategic aim of replacing some of their USD reserves with gold. We will see. The US is attempting to regain hegemony by promoting Stablecoins - digital currencies backed not by gold but by US treasuries. Fiat money and specifically the USD remains the global reserve and trade currency and technology is reinforcing that.

Great question. As other have responded hedging is done to reduce risk. Obviously if they were to consult LHC or another shamen of the gold cult and look at snake entrails they wouldn’t but a rational approach would be to hedge some at current levels. No one can KNOW what will happen to gold. Conspiracy theorists are like populists they BELIEVE, common sense not science, gut feeling not data driven logic. They look for simple answers to very complicated problems. My experience and education informs me that the world is very complicated and requires an understanding of that. MTL management seems rooted in an engineering approach that understands risk and complexity and may well evaluate that hedging some production at these levels is prudent.

Metals Exploration use it in the Philippines - it works well but like all mining systems there is risk. Their tanks were recently contaminated with arsenic from artisan mining upstream which killed the bacteria . They lost a few weeks production. Any mining is risky and requires expertise and strong management to succeed. That’s why only 20% of mines go from PEA to production and most don’t achieve the projected profit Another reason the market things miners are risky and why they have low P/E multiples

Death and taxes apart nothing is certain! I agree the balance of probabilities puts La India in production on time by Q4 2026 BUT even the best run companies can suffer have delays due to climate, earthquakes, political unrest etc and as everyone on this board should know mining is risky and dangerous and accidents happen. MTL suffered delays outside of their control in Runruno. There are numerous examples of failed projects like the Tampakan Copper-Gold project on the Phillipines. That doesn't mean La India wont be a great success BUT you can't KNOW or state as a FACT that it will be! It's disingenuous and misleading. Lets stick to the facts and agree to disagree agreeably!

There is a risk- off mood. Talk of AI bubble has become orthodox and as it’s the only sector driving growth it’s spooked the market. Risk off means sell off in risky assets like junior miners! Hasn’t changed our fundamentals- if and when La India reaches production my calculations give 32p P/E method and 38p EV method using a multiple of 5 which seems industry average for small cap miner. Discounted Cash Flow gives a higher valuation based on 12 year mine life but without guaranteed Dupax production we won’t get that.

I won’t pay 25p on first pour because I have almost 4 million shares at an average of 8p and have no intention of selling - however I am not wailing at the unfairness of the market. No point comparing us to AI, we don’t have the hype and psychology of the herd. Small Cap miners are rightly considered high risk. Be grateful we are don’t have la India priced in - don’t moan about it

You cant expect a valuation based on production until we have production at La India. Look at the facts - we have 1 mine with 18 months production left that had to stop production due to contamination! Why would investors see that as an opportunity? Yes if iLa India comes on line a reasonable multiple gives us 40p in 2 years- yes we have other resources but a rising gold price makes less risky operators tier 1 miners like Newmont look much more attractive. Opportunity cost. It’s nicely lined up for MTL if they get La India operating. It’s not guaranteed so don’t expect the share price to reflect it - yet!

We have a lot of corporal Jones fans on this board! Gold mining IS risky that’s why P/E and EV multiples are low - especially for a company with only 1 mine ! Patience is required. If you believe Gold is going to the moon and the gold standard is nigh go and invest in Newmont where with its high ASIC you will get a better leverage on a rising gold price. If you are a rational value investor with high appetite for risk stay here and enjoy the ride - it might be life changing!

I am invested in THX so not warning anyone- hopefully everyone is well aware of the risks - just pointing out to those convinced Golds bull run is going to the moon that if they believe that, they would be better off elsewhere leaving THX to rational investors.

Newmont and Barrick pay dividends- all be it at low yields- Gold Bugs (ie those who believe a return to the gold standard is nigh) who think the gold price will continue its turbo charged bull run should invest there not here and leave value investing to the rational.

100% agree AIM shares and especially junior small cap miners are avoided by wider market and perceived as high risk. Anything can happen in mining - you only have to see what happened at runruno and stopped production. A single mine small cap producer is perceived as high risk. Suits me and suits other holders - high risk high reward - but not for everyone.

100% agree AIM shares and especially junior small cap miners are avoided by wider market and perceived as high risk. Anything can happen in mining - you only have to see what happened at runruno and stopped production. A single mine small cap producer is perceived as high risk. Suits me and suits other holders - high risk high reward - but not for everyone.

We are all going to need a bit more patience here - however much we think that we know the gold is there our assumptions on LA India are just that, assumptions!. It’s unlikely MTL will be valued as a producer until we have a producing mine with more than 18 months of gold. The irony is that as geopolitical risk increases and the gold price increases and our potential FCF increases the less inclined most investors will be to invest in “risky” small cap miners. I have almost 4 million shares so I am a “believer” but understand that the wider market will perceive this as too risky to price in La India production. Even with La India we need Dupax to give us 2 mines in 2 locations, without that we won’t get the P/E or EV multiple others with multiple locations get.

Interesting comparison with Mineros. If you project forward and use a similar P/E ratio of 7.8 and assume gold at $3,500, asic $1,200 and 140k production you get MCAP of 1.7 B and share price of 49p . However Mineros doesn’t have just 1 mine and also produces in Columbia so MTL will be perceived as higher risk and probably won’t get the same multiple of earnings. Lots of other variables in play so usual caution on predicting future values

Candy has won his longstanding fraud case against Aaqua - netted a few more million- maybe he can buy a few more shares - Drachs must be catching him up!

There are obviously big differences between US and Japan and their high savings rate, percentage of debt owner by nationals and percentage of debt owned by by the central banks make it easier for them but the US has some very important strengths as well. I think we can all agree they face some big challenges but unless you live in a gold bug echo chamber not many see the USD collapsing, hyperinflation and a return to a gold standard! Good to see that my debunking of gold bug myths has had an immediate positive effect on the share price! Must be all the serious investors realising we are not all swivel eyed conspiracy theorists!

I don’t define a gold bug as being bullish on gold - it’s someone who “believes” in the online conspiracy that it was a mistake to come off the gold standard and that FIAT currency is doomed! Gold bugs typically post links to influencers making dire predictions of hyperinflation etc based on assumptions and opinions. Just trying to go to add some balance. Of course you can ignore alternative opinions if you are a gold bug and a true believer. Confirmation bias is an excellent investment strategy- much better to avoid debate and not question your beliefs. Keep the faith!