Member Info for Major4legs

Stablecoins like Tether are primarily Treasury backed although they have also been very big purchasers of gold. Gold and Bitcoin are similar in that they are both useless unless people “believe” in them as a store of wealth- unlike FIAT they don’t have the enormous infrastructure of global economies to support. Most commentators (for those of you who shun the evil mainstream media) don’t expect Stablecoins to take off in Europe and Asia where fintech processes already enable instant transactions of FIAT - but they might be useful in the US where non digital transactions are slower. It’s all in the mix as the USD slowly loses dominance- it won’t be replaced by Gold or Crypto but these may have a small part to play

I think the mechanism with Silver was to do with structural problems with the futures market as you explained - not an expert but the silver market is relatively small and has a long history of manipulation and mis-functioning. The reasons for the gold crash were slightly different- institutional profit taking followed by big inflows to ETFs with retail investors leveraging their bets then the fed announcement and more selling and margin calls. Implications for MTL with more volatility due to retail inflows aren’t great short term, but longer term factors driving gold remain. Geopolitical volatility looks set to continue for the long term. No sign of G7 inflation though

Oh dear - let’s not cancel each other just because we disagree! Ignoring opposing views is a cancer of our age and pretty dumb. Seeking out alternative perspectives helps the genuinely curious and provides a healthy debate that can improve our understanding of our investment.

How do you know that! How can it be proved?

We really don’t want to see crypto money flooding in to buy gold! Thats at least part of the story of the recent gold and silver volatility and will end badly! Be careful what you wish for.

So many experts , so many predictions. Posters telling us what they think based on diddly squat! As with all things dealing with human psyche the precious metal sell off is complex and probably has many causes. You can take your news from the mainstream media who blame panicking retail investors covering leveraged positions and the new orthodox head of the Fed or listen to the influencers and gold bugs who always blame some kind of FIAT and banking conspiracy. The data shows central banks overall stopped buying gold last year ( although we have no idea what China is doing and G7 banks haven’t bought gold for years anyway) so the recent rise was probably retail froth. MAGA have been clear they want to devalue the USD and China has been clear they want their FIAT currency to replace the USD as the global reserve. We also know the last time this happened it took the USD 40 years to replace sterling as the global reserve! A lot of volatility to go then.

What does “last throw of the dice for the banks” actually mean? You keep making these proclamations of the end of days - stop looking at pigs entrails and the you tube clips the algorithms suggest and do some real research- and yes maybe that does include some mainstream old fashioned journalism!

Lee - I didn’t say gold was down on the month - what I said was that the fall shows how volatile the anti volatility hedge has become! It’s now down over 9% in a day! If that isn’t a wake up call to the flat earthers and reminder that gold isn’t a one way bet - what is? The driver for this appears to be the appointment of a steady hand at the Fed. Another TACO moment but hardly a huge geopolitical event and yet gold is down almost 10% in a single day!

Gold is down - Lee lost his bet “ I bet silver and gold are riding high in the morning,” because the new Fed Reserve chair is seen as a stable hand who won’t cut rates if he thinks inflationary pressures have the upper hand. That’s not to say the gold run is over - there is a lot of fear and volatility out there but it’s a reminder that it will end eventually. Just like it did in the 1980s when if you bought at the wrong time it would have taken you 20 years to get your money back. Fortunately MTL doesn’t need $5k or even $4k to be very profitable so I remain an LTH even though I know the earth isn’t flat, antibiotics work , climate change is man made and the FIAT system isn’t about to collapse

Oops Lee I hope you didn’t bet too much on gold and silver rising over night. The dangers of an ideological approach! Probably just technical selling and Comex shenanigans but shows how volatility is built in across precious metals not just FIAT currencies.

The ride is going to get a lot rougher- gold has become the story now - retail investors in ETFs and the Stable coin providers are driving the market not the non G7 banks as before - so the hedge against volatility is going to become more volatile! Who knows what MAGA will do next ? They are deliberately devaluing the USD but it’s impossible for the world to decouple completely from it! Cool heads, patience. Nothing has changed for MTL this year and 20-30p target remains on course. Longer term we have a lot of options even if Dupax looks unlikely to be ready in time now to use Runruno capacity.

Interestingly the gold price move appears to be driven not by central banks now but by ETFs and possibly Stable coins like Tether. Although there is no transparency on Chinese state buying. Quote from World Gold Council “The highlight is definitely investment demand. The lowlight — the one people may be surprised about — is that central bank demand dropped,” said John Reade, market strategist at the WGC. “The drop in central bank demand was completely overshadowed by the increase we have seen in investment demand.”

Not sure what you are missing- what I see is potential within 5 years for separate mines in 3 separate countries. Nothing is “nailed on” but as we saw with Dupax it isn’t with MTL - if it was “nailed on

“ it wouldn’t be an investment and would already be priced in! Current mine has 4-5 years left at 90k oz pa waiting on update to see if this can be extended another 5 years, 2nd mine PFS shows 12 year LOM @ 90oz Pa, 3rd mine early stage speculation potentially another 10yr + LOM @90k oz pour 2031 - so it is very comparable to MTL. Slightly less reward but less risk as well.

Sakura - have you looked at Thor THX? Similarities with MTL but less risk - a working mine coming to end of life but high probability of extension and 2 other resources giving a realistic chance of 3 mines in 3 separate countries all be it in high risk jurisdictions. Zero debt, low ASIC and paying dividends. Worth a look.

I will put my tin hat on here and just remind everyone that it’s not “nailed on” that gold will continue to rise indefinitely. Granted there is no end in sight for this bull run but if you are building a mine what is a reasonable POG to use to assess if it is economic? If you did this at the end of the last bull run in 1980 and assumed an ever increasing POG you would have lost your shirt. We are in unprecedented times but not sure MTL should be chasing resources at marginal rates requiring a POG over $4k. Cool heads required. Dupax should be a reminder to us all that the future is rarely as good as we hope or as bad as we fear!

Let’s see what DB says - although I do think 2b mcap is way out for 2027. If gold stays above $3k for next 10 years then we have lots of economic deposits to explore to get us to a 2b mcap. Getting there in the next 2 or 3 years is unlikely now imho! I think some may have got a bit carried away but who knows DB may have some good news up his sleeve

The RNS doesn’t change mid term calculation - 25-30p by 2027 based on 145k oz and typical discount for region and single mine operations. Dupax was always less than a 50% chance anyway. Let’s see what happens- lots of opportunities left to drill.

Trump said he didn’t care about the dollars slide - and plans for US to buy Yen to shore up Japan - more pressure on USD as it further signals it wants weaker USD to improve trade balance. Euro and sterling are stronger on better data. It’s not a FIAT crisis but it is becoming a USD crisis and will further boost gold.

Interesting point about the effect of age on investment strategy. Are younger holders under 65! likely to be more patient than those over? Don’t know. I am 58 been retired for 4 years and see this in stages 1. La India - 2026 average 25p 80% chance. 2. Dupax - 2028 average 60p 40%. 3. Abra - 2030 onwards pure guess work at this stage . I did sell £150k @ 18.7 yesterday to diversify but still hold over 3 million. I am in a lucky position so won’t be trading or selling anymore in near future.

Personally I like AJ Bell but beware they do accept FIAT so are obviously part of the global elite mainstream conspiracy - as are all my local shops and pubs. Can’t believe how stupid those muppets are! Free platforms like 212 make money by lending your shares to short sellers so don’t have to charge. If it’s free you are the product!