Member Info for Major4legs

God knows how deep in Algorithms you would have to be to think this is because of poor MTL communication! Frustratingly this is exactly the reason I invested in junior miners- to provide leverage on rising gold prices caused by Trump chaos. Logic suggests it remains a good strategy in the medium term but in the short term logic is running scared and fear is in control!

Everything is red! Apart from all the tech shares I sold last year to buy more gold juniors! This will pass - but might take longer than hoped.

I think you are right - mine show inside my ISA but will probably be moved when they pay out. Depends on the broker. Best to ask them. I can’t find definitive evidence as to how HMRC treats them ie capital or income but proceeds are not protected in an ISA

I am pretty sure that if they are held in your isa and relate to shares you held in your isa that they are tax free. What evidence is there that they are not?

Most of this is macro and related to Iran war not MTL specific. The GDXJ is down almost 9% on the week. But good news it’s up 2% today. This is now the key metric for the sector not the gold price, which seems to have consolidated around $5k for now. Watch the GDXJ - if it consistently beats gold it means markets are waking up to undervalued juniors!

I bought £30k at 77p - happy with that. Can’t see how I can lose money on this even without Douta unless gold retraces to $3,500 and dont see that happening unless Trump starts selling US gold reserves or has an epiphany

THX is so under the radar- even at the bear case with Douta delayed or abandoned and with only the segilola forecasted FCF we are worth well offer £1 with sustained $5k gold. Even with a short LOM and single mine Bull case is absurd. I have moved a big chunk of my MTL holding here as the upside is similar but the downside risk is so much less

Thanks - Not looking to invest in Mako - already over exposed in Nicaragua with MTL - but interested in how their valuation helps us forecast MTL post La India.

The markets are behaving like they generally do - short term rush to the USD away from other assets - real USD price is up and real gold price is down since the war began. But that will change. Longer term money will flow back into gold as the long term pressures that created this bull run remain- geopolitical turmoil, tariffs and weakening USD and growing debt. Key move will be when GDXJ rises faster than gold and market starts believing the high gold price is sustainable. Capital will flow into gold juniors and a sector re-rate will begin. It might take 6 months it might take 12 months but it will happen as long as this macro picture remains. THX has an incredible micro story to feed into this macro move as news is released over the next year.

What EV/FCF multiple do you think the market will apply to MTL once we are de- risked and producing at La India next year? The only similar peer I can find is Mako which has higher grades and much higher FCF per share but lower resources and shorter LOM . At $5,000 gold it trades at about a multiple of 4. There are signs that capital is returning to AIM junior minors which will force the re-rate we are all waiting for. Isn’t this now much more important than the gold price and discussions on geopolitics of which we all know very little

Focus on what you are good at Lee - MTL PR and leave the macroeconomics to others who aren’t obsessed with conspiracy theories. I genuinely find your posts on MTL interesting and enlightening

Lee stop abusing people who hold a different view. Stop obfuscating. Look at the facts

Since the start of the war the real value of the USD is up 2% while gold is down 3%

USD (DXY)

+2.1%

−0.1% inflation

≈ +2.0%

Gold

−3.1%

−0.1% inflation

= -3%

It’s a short term move but is further evidence of the gold bug fallacy. The USD remains the global reserve and safe haven and gold is not always a 1 way bet.

Lee - facts not tosh. Since the war started gold has gone gone sideways the USD has gone up. Fact. Don’t pick evidence to suit you prejudice.

I think expectations got ahead of reality here! Once Dupax was dead what news is there to share until Q4? Personally I don’t want endless stream of updates on the build. The reality is gold can’t shelter us from short term Trump storms but remains our best hope in the mid to long term. I am twitchy but resisting the urge to dabble as I believe in my strategy over the next 2 years

MTL doesn’t need to please everyone but it does need to please more than Lee and his acolytes- unfortunately we need to attract more than the Bowden cult annd its head Shaman. Despite their millions of shares their purchasing power isn’t sufficient to move the dial. To do that we need to attract new investors and they will need persuading with positive news and ideally multi jurisdiction production. MTL will re-rate with other juniors once these very high gold prices are seen as sustainable but we will remain heavily discounted if we remain a single high risk jurisdiction producer.

Take your point Sakura but if we only allowed experts to cast their opinion this would be a very quiet (as in silent) board. There is a lot of research that shows diverse opinions lead to better decisions and a healthy respectful disagreement can help all of us. Blocking, cancelling or dissuading dissenting voices doesn’t lead to good decisions.

Hallucinating! I did the same search and got a very different list - AI isnt good at this better at analysing and calculations based on what you give it try refining • <100k oz production

• AISC < $1,000

• no debt

Kat - agree with you about the upside potential but that doesn’t reduce the risk! It’s easy to overstate the risk and everyone’s appetite is different. Most investors in MTL will have high appetites in any case. Personally I just want to make sure I understand it, and I get a bit annoyed when people claim there isn’t any risk and everything is nailed on when obviously that’s not how the world works. Not giving tips, as I am not qualified to do that but if you are genuinely interested do some research into zero debt sub $1,500 ASIC juniors with minimum 50,000 oz pa

It’s not for me to say Candy or Drachs are wrong but as a percentage of total worth I suspect their holding (and therefore risk) is much lower than yours or even mine! I am not de - ramping I still have a big holding and may in the future. Just sharing a view - which is the point of this board. It’s not truth social!

Many junior minors are undervalued- but only if you are valuing them at the current spot gold price and assuming all proven resources are realisable. That isn’t how the market values junior minors in high risk jurisdictions. It will take a year or 2 for high gold prices to feed through to valuations when it is believed they are sustainable. MTL is a great opportunity but there are others, maybe less risky, with similar growth projections over the next 2 years. While I admire the courage of those who continue to hold millions of shares in MTL as a majority of their portfolio I am not sure it is sensible or necessary given the range of other opportunities available