Member Info for Major4legs

I just moved £40k more into my family ISAs but am also thinking of swapping some of these over to another goldie as I agree can’t see an above sector rerate here until we get major news and the presentation was clear this isn’t coming in Q2. Next 2-3 years looks great but in next 2-3 months it looks like bigger gains elsewhere

$40 million Q1 FCF is my guess - over 1p per share! Based on 16,500 oz production

Mr Conman - no need for a declaration but a change of tone and language and just a smidgeon more humility would be appreciated

The difference between you Mr Conman and those you disagree with is that you claim to “know” and state as facts what is just assumption while we admit we “dont know “ - nothing wrong with opinions and assumptions as long as they are clearly marked as such. I am sure management is looking at acquisitions and how to dispose of the plant either by selling it or repurposing it but none of us “know” when or if that will happen. Recent reports from the Philippines and Abra may have changed the direction here. We simply don’t know!

What he actually stated was : “By the end of 2026, the ore body will be finished and we’ll be looking for further opportunities within the country.” Far too many dreamers and emotionally invested LTHs posting making unfounded claims. MTL is a great opportunity and doesn’t need it.

MTL moving today in line with sector (GDXJ up 4% ) Real interest rates and oil down pushing gold back up - doesn’t imply that news is incoming but shows market indifference to Philippine resources. Agree with EL - none of us have a scoobies what will be done with Runruno plant, although the “believers” will claim to know the mind of DB

Not sure I would blame DB for Abra (or Dupax) getting permits is a key risk in mining (as is firming up resources) I don’t recall DB saying they were not risks. Too many LTHs here have over hyped the opportunity and claimed MTLs path to a $2 billion mcap was assured and risk free. I can see they are doing it again with unfounded talk of $1 billion FCF on anther thread. Don’t blame the management if you also got carried away by such talk. The risks remain - that’s why it appears cheap - as does the potential reward!

I doubt many invested here for Abra but if it does mean we have no viable Philippines prospect post Runruno it is significant. Even Lee has changed from “I know” to MTL “may” have a shovel ready project. Personally I don’t “believe “ anyway - so remain positive. Risk reward on La India remains strong, and probability is good that we will have very strong FCF to fund dividends and exploration and acquisitions within 2 years. Let’s drop the hyperbole, not be greedy and accept the fundamentals.

You’re not helping guys. I want some short term pain here! Come on who would buy this? Africa - seriously! Stick to Canada and the US much safer! Douta announcement is months away Segolia ASIC is going to explode if we mine underground- Diesel costs going through the roof - Gold price is unsustainable- Turkey already selling their reserves to pay for oil and interest rates are going up making gold unattractive. See it’s easy. If we all have a go a 10-15% drop is achievable !

Mining isn’t an important part of the Philippines economy, so political pressure will carry more weight.

Just one of many risks in mining.

I need to de-ramp this as much as possible so I can transfer more shares in my £40k allowance in mine and my wife’s ISA - any suggestions?

I don’t think anyone claims LTHs have actually claimed DB is Jesus (yet!) but given the comments from some which claim to know the mind of management and their frequent expressions of totally unfounded “ it is a fair to describe some LTHs as displaying cult like attitudes. It’s a shame that some resort to emotion and hyperbole and are dismissive of constructive criticism because the facts of the fundamentals are very strong here.

Why does this share have such emotional investors? It’s great to have a vibrant chat board but I find it odd that so many are so emotionally invested here which can be dangerous. Many over play the upside and downplay the risks both micro and macro. Nevertheless MTL remains a great opportunity.

Isn’t the real short term significance here that the Ortega regime has granted us another concession which demonstrates good relations

Shame the 5 year tax holiday expires this year so Douta will be taxed at 30%! Unless there is a new deal for Douta

I have no idea - and neither do you- which was my point

We have seen what the threat of inflation actually does to gold - the threat of real interest increasing has reduced the gold price since the war started. Lots of dreaming going on again - despite the failure of Dupax we are back to believing another deal is imminent and that we will have 2 mines in production within 2 years. Nothing wrong with hope but best to lower expectations and not confuse belief with facts

Mmh - going from zero to 30% seems punchy -especially as this will be our only productive asset and we will want to accumulate for future capex. $5,500 I. 2 years is arguable but higher than I would model. DPS of 1.5-4p is a reasonable range. It would be nice if they made this an aim rather than just the vague aspiration it currently is

How do you get to a 4p dividend - interested in the maths and assumptions used?

Yup get on board the rollercoaster again. Gold down 3% oil up 7%. 10yr treasury yields up 1%. DXY up. At some point someone in the MAGA base is going to shout “but he has no clothes” then Vance takes over and we really will be in trouble as he has ideology believes aliens are actually demons but at least won’t try to bomb people into the Stone Age or invade Cuba!