Member Info for Major4legs

If you take a start date for the war of 28th Feb the USD is up 3% while gold is more or less unchanged, equities and crypto are down- the buying of USDs when war broke out was pretty clear and uncontentious and suggests it is still strongly perceived as the world’s reserve in times of strife. That may change but the data suggests it hasn’t yet

Broadly agree if not quite so bullish on gold but while the USD may be in long term decline as you say the war has pushed buyers to the safe haven - in this instance NOT gold but the USD. History tells us reserve currencies change over decades not months or years. The USD in particular and FIAT in general will remain dominant for many decades

MTL, THX, CMCL are all low ASICl, low-zero debt juniors with good resources and have great prospects but they all have risk. The word “ might “ is advisable the probability of success at La India is high given technical progress but nothing is certain. They won’t fully rerate until the current gold price is seen as sustainable- elevated gold prices are too recent to be used in valuations - and the perceived risks are mitigated. In MTLs case thats La India production and another mine in a different jurisdiction

Not saying it’s not true but we should be wary of trusting exiled anti regime sources like this. We know the Chinese are engaged in Nicaragua and we know the US sanctions the Ortega regime - it’s a big risk and post Iran it may become a bigger risk but not sure this story can be verified

Having independent owned instead of institutional investors may have its advantages but is probably an incentive for keeping us on AIM with its IHT relief - all be it’s being reduced to 50% in April. For MTL to be rerated we will need institutional investment.

“Sorted Venezuela in a weekend” really? Previous US presidents tried this before in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya etc it didn’t end well - ensuing chaos created ISIS and killed a million! But yes it will increase the price of gold! Personally would settle for more stability and lower gold price Tariffs and low dollar strategy will keep gold high in any case!

We are being punished for not having an investable LOM in the Philippines and maybe because the companies future production is in a country that may well be in line for a Trump “special operation” after Iran and Cuba. He does t want a forever war but he does seem to be want wars forever!

Interesting- not the bear case - but some wise words on the benefits of rational investing avoiding emotion and sticking to an investment strategy

The bear case for gold is very weak - you won’t find it on YouTube which is dominated by bulls and bugs. Some have attempted to frame it as part of. Straw Man argument http://gold.org/goldhub/gold-focus/2025/07/you-asked-we-answered-whats-bear-case-gold. Some banks are very bullish eg JPM and Goldman but consensus forecasts from banks is much lower $4,500. - $ 5,000. Iran war may have changed that. Capital Economics has been very bearish but you will need to register an account. I keep looking for alternative views as I agree the internet is an echo chamber and algorithms push us all to keep it going reading articles that just affirm our prejudices

That’s a pretty good analysis Lee but the ASIC won’t be $1,200 over 12 years- aren’t we due for hyperinflation in the next year - will civilisation exist in 12 years? How can you invest in a long term investment with FIAT currency doomed!

Happy to see your workings Lee. Emotional investing without looking at the opportunity costs isn’t for me so please use facts to prove me wrong and show your assumptions

If it did - MTL once again becomes a great prospect, as good as the best gold miners - without it by my (AI) calculations the ceiling is 30p the floor 5p which makes it irrational to hold as the major part of a gold mining portfolio given the alternatives. With such an acquisition the ceiling should more than double over the next 3 -4 years

Lee do you just make this crap up! The banking system in Ukraine is profitable and working fine with almost 5,000 branches and functioning 24/7 electronic transfer system. No one is using gold or silver instead of cash!

Oh! What should I do with that illusionary cash I got for selling them! Send it back! Are the photos of the family holiday we had on the back of it an illusion as well? How do I tell the kids? Thanks Lee I get it now. I’m a believer I feel so free! Meanwhile back in the real world debt is down, long term interest rates down. Doesn’t look like the end of the world to me.

Fill yer boots Lee. I made a bit on Silver ETFs myself all inside ISAs and SIPPs - not a good long term investment though. Miners give better leverage and pay dividends and you don’t need a wheelbarrow to cash em in!

Sell everything, buy some AK47s and go and join Lee, DDD and the flat earthers in their NZ bunker!

Ah! Hemingway! Great writer - not so good an economist. So when does this “post US FIAT “ world start and how will we know when we are in it?

Empires don’t last forever Jammin but they generally do t fall off a cliff either - they adapt change and morph into something new. The Roman Empire changed over several centuries into the Catholic Church and the Ottoman Empire. Debt based capitalism and FIAT currencies aren’t going to fall off a cliff either. The problem in Japan was not inflation it was deflation hence the QE! Now there is some inflationary pressure this is there way out to slowly erode real debt but it looks a devilishly difficult balance. It is also the best way out for us - avoiding gold surges but keeping it above $4,000.

This isn’t a new problem Japan has had debt levels over 200% since 2011 and been using QE for decades so that the government owns over 50% of the debt. It’s not going to collapse suddenly but like the USDs reserve status it is going to slowly deteriorate It’s not the end of days but we are seeing a structural realignment. Thats why we are invested in a junior miner because of the long term volatility in the system that supports high gold prices. No need for conspiracy end of FIAT hyperbole. If that happens MTLs share price and all other AIM shares would crash any way.

Did a quick AI calculation on diesel and generator rental costs to run the mine if grid connection isn’t made in time and it’s approximately $2m per month! So significant but as we have no evidence of a delay just hypothetical. I would guess to save $2m a month a connection will be expedited one way or another!