Member Info for Major4legs

Gold and silver rise on perceived geopolitical risk - MTL drops on perceived Latin American risk. Understandable if not rational. Risk to Nicaragua looks slight - US wants to control Latin American resources and might try to restrict gold exports to China but that would only increase gold price further. Looks like an irrational knee jerk to me.

Mr Lanci gives a very clear view of what is a very complex market. Silver even more than Gold is ripe for conspiracies which I find really interesting. Silver has a history of proven manipulation- Hunt brothers, JP Morgan etc, a massive mismatch between physical and paper, iconic status as a store of value and a strategic role in the evolving geopolitical battle between the US and China and the US retreat from globalisation. Conspiracy theorists like populists look for simple answers to complex problems. The reality is more complex and more interesting but much less predictable

Why do you sound like you alter ego LHC I wonder? These claims are highly dubious based on social media and right wing shock jocks. Why are conspiracy theories so rampant on silver right now? No doubt there is volatility and unprecedented moves by China in response to US tariffs but let’s try to separate fact from hyperbole and conspiracy here

The silver market looks very complicated- who knows what China is up to but with such control over the relatively small market they can manipulate it. JP Morgan were fined almost a $1 billion a few years ago for manipulating silver prices and we know back in the 80s the Hunt brothers stitched it up. Bit of a side show for MTL but shows the incredible volatility at play in 2026. Opportunities and risk everywhere. Will stick to my plan and expect to see 30p by the end of the year.

…..are determined more by geopolitics than simple market forces. Very complex markets and hard to predict unless like some you are guided by ideology not data in which case you believe not only in ever increasing gold prices but also hyperinflation, the collapse of FIAT money and the end of days!

The silver market is relatively small - about 15% the size of the gold market- and so much more open to manipulation. I think the main similarity right now is the dominant role of China in the growing valuation of both. Not a prediction- my track record on that is very poor- but both these markets are

Happy Christmas everyone, may all your risks be mitigated and all your beliefs be questioned. Fully expect 2026 to see MTL achieve 20p + maybe 30p if we get Dupax confirmed. But also aware nothing is certain. Hope for the best prepare for the worst. Thanks to all for your insight and stimulating thoughts!

I agree Sakura - I don’t think they are interested in Gold at all - the US has most of it already! It may have some rare earths which would be of interest- Latin America has 40% of world deposits! But it’s the politics and geographical position that makes it a risk. Who knows what they will do. Nicaragua has been annoying the American right since the 80s, they want the whole region to be run by MAGA acolytes

I agree Sakura - I don’t think they are interested in Gold at all - the US has most of it already! It may have some rare earths which would be of interest- Latin America has 40% of world deposits! But it’s the politics and geographical position that makes it a risk. Who knows what they will do. Nicaragua has been annoying the American right since the 80s, they want the whole region to be run by MAGA acolytes

Trump, Vance etc have stated that they see central and South America as strategically important and fair game for us interference. although this goes against Maga ideology- so who knows what they will do but if they see an opportunity to make their families and backers richer they take it. Cocaine from Peru and Columbia is trafficked through Central America and Trump pardoned the right wing ex Honduran president in jail for drug trafficking so no doubt Central America is vulnerable. Ortega is seen as a socialist and will be in his sights if he succeeds in getting his mates into power in Venezuela. There is real geopolitical risk here. Silly to say otherwise. That’s why the big players avoid Nicaragua and why our share value will be discounted but the higher risk also promises us higher reward. Lots of lower risk lower reward options out there for those who prefer that approach. This share suits my risk profile but not for everyone

My way out Christmas gold prediction not withstanding that’s pretty much what I said - 80k (MTL presentation actually states 71k) production in 12 months scaling to 150k thereafter. The 126k is scheduled for 2027! So if you run a fair value calculation on 80k and discount for risk you get a range whose lower end is close to our current price. Don’t see why that’s controversial. Unfortunately for all of us the market tends not to wear your gold tinted blinkers Lee. However I do agree that the future, although not without risk, is very bright for all LTHs.

Based on what’s been released which I believe is 80,000 oz pa initially (possibly scaling to 150,000 pa) we are probably close to the bottom end of fair value given a reasonable discount for 1 mine and volatile jurisdiction. 20-30p in 12 months is feasible and steady increase if positive news flow continues with major re rate in 2 years if Dupax is confirmed with upgrades at La India and more info on Abra.

Long way away yet but would prefer dividends and investment in new resources to share buy back- unless it is used to neutralise dilutions from new options- the curse of AIM

I think you are confusing CGT with IHT, I believe AIM shares, except investment and property vehicles, currently quality for 100% relief on IHT - 50% from next year

We mainly seem to be in agreement- the only difference is how you perceive risk which is down to your individual circumstances and psychology. The fundamentals and potential provide a huge upside but like all investments it’s a very complex situation with multiple variables and psychological factors which are difficult to predict. It’s all about risk! Be wary of those who “believe” or claim to know and those looking for simple answers to highly complex questions

Do some research- look at the statistics - the success rate of small cap mining projects isn’t great, it’s a very risky business especially in politically and environmentally volatile jurisdictions. The long term gold price is also not assured. It all means the P/E or EV multiple applied to gold miners is currently very low. The market won’t value MTL based on future production until these risks are reduced as we get closer to production. We will also need to get Runruno extended so we have 2 mines operating to reduce risks. MTL has several factors in its favour which make it a great value investment but although well documented the general market will not be aware of these and looking for what it perceives as lower risk. Thats why MTL is such a great opportunity for the few willing to take the risk.

Oh Lee! Enjoy the rise, you may well see your £1million grow to £5 million and then you can use all that lovely FIAT currency to buy a room full of gold and like Midas reflect on your folly.Or you could use your FIAT money to buy something useful or even just enjoy the eventual dividends that will be paid in FIAT currency. Unlike crypto or gold the central banks can control the money supply- that’s why hyperinflation only happens in failed states.

LHC what do you mean “the banks do not want gold to rise because they are buying it”? Corporate banks don’t buy gold! Central banks don’t have clients and have been buying gold because of fears about Trumps policy towards the USD and growing uncertainty. Why wouldn’t they want the gold price to go up?

The POG is less important to miners with a low ASIC then it is to miners with high ASIC, Tier 1 miners like Newmont and they will benefit more from a rising gold price. It will of course also benefit us and increase MTLs free cash flow but the P/E or EV multiple will only increase when we de-risk our position from a single mine with limited life to multiple mines with a 10-12 year life .

😂 I would be happy with 3k gold as it would mean peace, prosperity and loveliness! However I think it unlikely! Our low ASIC means the POG is less significant for us. The key to our share growth is de-risking by getting La India producing and firming up Dupax.