Member Info for Major4legs

Is the POG the key factor here? Isn’t the multiple the market applies to our FCF more important. Based on H1 results we are at 2.9 x FCF. As can be seen from the share price MTL isn’t reliant on the POG at these stratospheric levels. Increasing the multiple to 5 or even 8 is much more important as the relationship is exponential while the link to the POG is linear

I believe La India is forecast at 145,000 oz pa and Dupax is 140,000 gold equivalent based on processing 1.4mt of ore at 3.5g/t - that’s at $2,500 pog so if it comprises more copper and zinc then it will be worth less relative to gold so maybe 100,000 oz - that’s still almost 250,000 oz pa across both mines. It could be a lot more or less depending on Dupax results!

The reality is that we are not being valued as a producer - with 1 mine due to end production next year that is understandable. Way too much risk here for most but that has worked to LTHs advantage. When we have 2 producing mines in 2 jurisdictions the FCF multiple will go to at least 4 - if Dupax resource is more than 2 or 3 years it should be closer 8.

LHC I am surprised that a dedicated gold bug doesn’t know who owns the 8,000 tonnes! Of course it’s all owned by the US treasury! Some of it may be stored in depositories where other gold is also stored but it is 100% owned by the US treasury. Non G7 banks are indeed replacing the USD as a reserve, some of it with gold, but that doesn’t mean the end of FIAT money. It’s now impossible given the size and liquidity of global markets to have a currency tied to a physical asset. However you were right, for the wrong reasons, that gold is rapidly appreciating and looks like it has further to go as Trumps aims of devaluing the USD, tariffs and geopolitical isolation increases volatility. It’s not a good thing but is likely to make all MTL holders richer.

MAGA MUPPETS

What’s the evidence for saying that US reserves are not audited or verified? They are and have been continuously by Us treasury inspectors since 1974! Of course gold bugs, mags muppets and co conspirators claim otherwise. Depends who you prefer to believe. Personally I prefer to trust civil servants than weirdo incel nutters on you tube!

Punter I also have a few THX shares- they have done better than MTL recently- dual listing and dividends may help, Nigeria is high risk but more friendly to mining - the loss of production hasn’t helped MTL but who knows. Maybe the clearly defined timescale is working against us allowing profits to be taken ready to come closer to la India production Markets and especially small caps are not rational. MTLs turn will come.

It’s pretty obvious why we are undervalued- however well run the company mining is a risky business and a company with just 1 mine with less than 2 years production in an unfriendly jurisdiction is just too risky for most people. Rising gold prices actually make MTL less attractive to the risk averse as less risky gains are easier to find. But for if you can stomach a bit of risk the gains here over the next few years could be life changing. Up to you.

you missed the boat on that bet! no one took me up. i did get it massively wrong - far too optimistic on geopolitics! and well done for not bothering to reply to the facts that disavow your prejudices. for gods sake don’t change your mind when presented with evidence- what kind of a conspi****** would you be if you looked at the data!

You probably could buy a transit built to the 1965 spec for a lot less than £13k! But of course inflation devalues cash , that’s why we need growth! Do the same calculation for £595 invested in the LSE in 1965 - including re invested dividends = £280k more than twice the return on buying gold!

Let’s stick to the facts shall we - FT has nothing to to do with CPI or CPIH - that’s the ONS or they all part of the alien lizard gold conspiracy as well? Gold is indeed over $3,700 again and looking to go higher - nothing to do with the collapse of FIAT currency and all to do with geopolitics, tariffs and trumps policy of devaluation! G7 are not buying gold BECAUSE they have FIAT currencies!

Who are the “they” you are referring to? CPI is 3.8% and does include rent but not mortgages, CPIH which includes a mortgage calculation as well as rent is 4.1%

Ignore the short term faff - unless you want to trade. In Which case good luck! I am interested in LTH strategies- what do others think. I would like to see a de-risking strategy and using FCF to buy a 3rd mine - Abra is at least 5 years away- but gold price might make this too expensive- others may want buybacks or dividends

Agreed. Until we have 3 mines producing I don’t expect dividends- we will need reserves to cover any production loss as well as fund capex on new mines. I suspect that is at least 3 years away. A bit of patience needed. Plenty of other options if you want to trade junior miners.

Sorry to disappoint but I broadly agree with your post - if not the hyperbole- gold has risen on interest rate cuts and Trump tariff volatility - but it’s probably overblown and I think it will drop back below $3,500. We will see. I also agree that equities like MTL with low ASIC, zero debt and large resources offer a much better return than physical gold especially with the prospect of dividends. Even LHC and DDD can see that through their gold tinted spectacles!

Not all pension funds will ignore small cap gold miners - but in general they obviously prefer low risk high yield not high risk high growth. I have everything in a SIPP for that reason heavily invested in MTL, THX and tech growth funds

This is a risk all gold miners face which is exacerbated by the high price of gold - the FT had an interesting article about the level of illegal gold mining - not sure if what MTL describe as artisanal is the same as wildcat or illegal mining but in some regions it is causing devastation to the environment. The FT stated that 40% of Peruvian output was illegal with rivers poisoned by mercury! Another reason why pension funds steer clear of gold mining. It’s not just the engineering risk or price volatility - it’s the ESG risk. MTL is better than most on this but it’s still a dirty business with associated risk. Balancing local economic benefits with environmental concern is tricky and a risk all LTHs should be aware of so nothing knew and no reason to sell MTL. This is a great buying opportunity for those with spare cash.

Of course THX is not being priced at what we consider fair value- for a small cap miner that’s a very subjective process. If all the resources were priced in I wouldn’t be investing here! You can always buy Newmont or Barrick with their higher ASICs if you want shares that are more highly leveraged on the gold price at “fair value “

The yield at over 5% is actually very high - Newmont and Barrick are less than half this.

Maybe someone wants cash to pay for opportunities elsewhere- big tech sell off today might encourage some to invest in tech. Nothing changed in MTL Fundamentals. Prospects here for next 2-3 years remain life changing for many of us with large holdings.