Member Info for Major4legs

Valuations are not just maths! Woking out fair value based on future FCF , planned ASICs and expected gold price etc will get you to a number but the risks of mining are real - MTL has suffered some of these : typhoons, political protest, cyanide contamination- its good management mitigated them but nothing is “nailed on” and with only 1 mine in a “risky” jurisdiction we will be heavily discounted. Most investors won’t be thinking like us - professional fund managers definitely won’t - that’s our advantage and why we see value here - but you have to factor in the animal spirits its not just maths ! Enjoy the ride, hedge the risk

Lee calm down and get a sense of perspective- we actually agree on a lot here. As a long term investor in gold I have been well rewarded by recent rises - like you I see huge potential and reward in MTL - I also agree MAGA strategy is to devalue the USD - more importantly the Chinese seem to agree as well which is why they have gone from buying US treasuries to buy gold! As Sakura points out much cleverer people than us and the online influencers you follow don’t see the end of FIAT. If that were to happen your MTL shares would be worthless! It’s going to be a rough ride and very easy to get carried away. The future is never as good or as bad as predicted. Time for cool heads. Gold is only 1 part of the story here. MTL needs to derisk to realise fair value - 20-30p range this year with La India could be a lot more over the next few years if they do.

Revealing vocabulary Lee. Unlike you investing for me is not about faith - I am not a believer! However fully accept I didn’t expect to see $5k gold because I was massively over optimistic about the geopolitical volatility and underestimated the debasement trade. It’s not the end of FIAT as you “believe” but MAGA is hellbent on reducing the value of the USD and the world is losing trust in the US! Time for cool heads everywhere.

Clearly cash is by definition not an investment. Gold is a great hedge in volatile times and we haven’t seen this much volatility since the 1930s, but it’s not always been a great investment. If you bought gold in 1980 it would have taken you 20 years to get your money back! Shares and their dividends have proved better over the long run. But times are clearly different - none of us have lived in world where the US constitution, Russia, NATO, EU and the UN are powerless to stop a rogue POTUS whose values are abhorrent, immoral and based on pure greed. In this new world gold is going to go up. Only 3 things stand in the way of MAGAs domination- the 50% of US voters who oppose it, China and the Bond Market. As an optimist I think between them those 3 will defeat the MAGA movement but at what cost?

Lee please calm down. Debt and leverage are integral to the capitalist system - it has worked well for over 200 years despite periodic crises. Gold has no more integral value than FIAT currencies - it’s just a store of wealth- both depend on trust. What are you going to swap your MTL shares for or even your sovereigns if the apocalypse materialises? The system has proved to be incredibly resilient- 911, 2008 crash, COViD, Ukraine, Trump Tarriffs etc and still national debts are below WWII levels. Thats not to say we aren’t going through a massive restructuring with A I and de globalisation but it’s a very complex process and simple populist and conspiracy answers don’t stand up to the heat of debate. Why don’t we all meet in a debate club setting and have a sensible conversation- at least we might all learn something rather than just shout at each other on social media

I agree Ant - Trump only exists cos Democrats and moderates f***ed up. The logic behind high ASIC miners benefiting most from high POG is a counter intuitive but sound. High-AISC miners have higher operating leverage (% profit change per % price change) because their profit base is smaller. A fixed dollar increase in price represents a larger percentage of their narrow margin.

This makes high-AISC miners but more sensitive to price movements - both upside and downside. They benefit more in percentage terms from price increases, of course this also means they are closer to becoming unprofitable if prices fall.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

Not sure how a lefty agenda is helped by a lower gold price. Is a more peaceful and less volatile world a lefty agenda? I did get the gold price very wrong and the gold bugs were right about that although for the wrong reasons. Central banks increased gold purchases not because they were losing trust in the concept of FIAT currencies but because they were losing trust in the US. That looks likely to accelerate. But nothing is nailed on! Only the devout believers in cults and conspiracies believe that! A bit of doubt is healthy. Despite our differences 20p + and 30p isn’t far apart so we may both be right or both wrong with very different approaches to investing.

Yeah TACO was predictable. Surprising how many very smart commentators allow themselves to get wound up by clownish posturing and threats. Interesting to see if gold takes a breather now or if the fear of more volatility continues to turbo charge the bull cycle. Higher gold benefits miners with High ASICs more than the likes of MTL which is one reason other shares have risen faster recently. Personally would happily swap less volatility for a lower gold price . MTLs future growth depends on building the mine and derisking by developing a multi site multi jurisdiction company not by a stratospheric gold price!

With 45% in the hands of 2 investors Candy and Drachs and another 40 odd % distributed across tiny retail PIs our management doesn’t have to bother too much with market updates and can focus on the core, and vey tricky, business of building a mine in Nicaragua. We have seen enough evidence to know this is on schedule for Q4. If in a few years we have a $2 billion mcap, a TSX or main LSE listing and multiple fund managers to update I would expect better comms - but not yet.

Predictable surge in gold given all the bed wetting over the bonkers POTUS - interesting to see what happens when the equally predictable TACO occurs in DAVOS later today. No doubt it’s helping us get over 16p again- very strong position ahead of RNS. Steady rise to 20p + by end of year. Is Carney right that this permanent change - if so golds bull run may continue beyond Trumps presidency and take us all the way to Abra!

I agree with Sakura. Based on the CURRENT situation 1 producing mine with less than 2 years production left we are NOT undervalued. Not sure a Tier 1 will take us out. It’s true to say our value would be doubled if we were part of a lower risk tier 1 with much higher P/E but they would still see a single mine operation in Nicaragua as too risky even when this producing. Sit tight enjoy being under the radar, that’s why the reward potential here is so high. Hedge the risk and wait for the reward.

How do we know that the big buys are not being bought by nominee accounts for pooled retail trades. If they are consistently buying regular blocks isnt this likely to be the case? . Also make Lees suggestion that its institutional buying unlikely. I don’t think MTL would meet most funds risk profile at the moment. Other than Candy and Drachs we are primarily a retail investor owned share. Not a negative just what it is. Funds might jump in if we de- risk. Expect 20p + this year without them anyway.

Some are obsessed with the gold price - of course any increase will increase our FCF but it isn’t he key driver on the share price - the P/E ratio is more important for MTL than the FCF generated and that is driven by the risk associated with small cap miners in single jurisdictions. Counterintuitively miners with high ASICs also get more leverage from higher gold prices t hi a those with low ASICs . That is part of the reason why other miners have increased more than MTL in recent weeks. Personally quite happy with consolidation at 14p and expecting 20-30p by the end of the year. Beyond that is hard to predict- Dupax would really de- risk MTL, Abra looks 5 to 10 years away at this stage.

Of course discussing local political protests is relevant to this board! It’s a key risk you need to consider and one of the reasons P\E ratios on miners are so low. It’s also perfectly valid to ask why MTL hasn’t continued the momentum in a straight line that we have seen from 6p since Condor was acquired. We all learn by robustly debating our views and testing our biases and researching what others post This is a generally healthy board despite the occasional attempt to crowd out the more sceptical non believers (like me) who nevertheless see hugh reward BECAUSE of the risks. Without the risks there wouldn’t be any value as all the potential would be priced in! So enjoy the risk, make sure you hedge it as best you can and enjoy the ride

Stablecoins (Tether and Circle)are mainly backed by FIAT currency - US bonds - they are now the 3rd largest buyer of US debt and would be about the 12th biggest holder of treasury reserves if they were a central bank!

Recent FT article was pretty bullish about Gold this year (yes Lee even the mainstream media is bullish now)!Given recent events the drivers pushing Gold higher look dominant. Trump is undoubtedly breaking the 50 year strategy to make the USD the world reserve currency. It’s not the end of FIAT money but it increasingly looks like the end of USD dominance. Stablecoins might bolster its position but if not US borrowing will become a lot more expensive for them.

Recent analysts predictions:

Rhona O’Connell

StoneX

$3,500

Bernard Dahdah

Natixis

$4,200

Peter Taylor

Macquarie

$4,200

Joni Teves

UBS

$4,500

Helen Amos

BMO

$4,500

Michael Hsueh

Deutsche Bank

$4,700

Suki Cooper

Standard Chartered

$4,750

Lina Thomas

Goldman Sachs

$4,900

Michael Haigh

Société Générale

$5,000

Natasha Kaneva

JP Morgan

$5,055

Stocks - sorry for recent investors MTL probably doesn’t look great but by the end of the year it should. You can’t really compare MTL to other miners in Nicaragua because remember we are not yet producing anything there - as an explorer we are seen as much riskier! Although we are generating cash from Runruno this is scheduled to end within 2 years so the market really values us as an explorer not a producer. Our name probably doesn’t help! We should all be grateful that we have found a company with such great fundamentals that is under the radar rather than moan that no one else has found it! I love the irony of that!

Picking an arbitrary date and suggesting the share has only grown 4% is misleading. MTL has seen impressive growth from 6p to 16p since the Condor acquisition. LTHs will know the full story. There are several risk anchors weighing the share down most significantly the short LOM left at Runruno but the management has an excellent track record and achievable plans to mitigate most of the risks and develop a multi mine, multi jurisdiction, multi billion company. Key attributes that persuaded me to buy 4 million shares were very low ASIC, zero debt, low risk of dilution, excellent management with skin in the game and of course the hugh resource across 2 jurisdictions in 2 continents. This is not another “hole in the ground with a liar on top” but neither is it a 100% guaranteed get rich scheme! Be wary of those who claim it is! There is risk here but also huge potential reward. As always DYOR don’t invest more than you can afford to lose and understand your own risk profile.

Self interest isn’t always easy to ascertain. Breaking up

up the internal order established after WW2 and undermining the rule of law to return to

the 19th century age of empire and tariffs might appeal to MAGA but it will make the US poorer. Rocky few years ahead. Glad to be invested in the safe haven of gold even if it is in a high risk geopolitical zone. That’s why MTL is cheap and why those of us looking for high risk high reward are here. You can always buy Newmont if you prefer a lower risk hedge!

We certainly live in interesting times. Recent events are not driven by oil but a broader discernible MAGA strategy to exert hegemony over Latin America and remove China, Russia and Irans influence. They don’t seem to care about regime change as long as they have subservience. Ortega may have a decision to make! Short term it’s a minor problem for MTL, a lot of this risk is already priced in, longer term stability probably depends on how Ortega responds, longer term who knows? MAGA may not survive in any case if their hemisphere dominance doesn’t result in cheaper eggs for US voters.