Member Info for Major4legs

Wow totally agree with LHC goldbug supreme leader! Buying "digital gold" would be a distraction and unnecessary risk, we are far better to stick to the plan grow the business and pay out lots of lovely FIAT currency when we have 2 long term producing mines. Although LHC might not be able to spend it from his bunker if he believes Mr Wolffs marxist end of days looming hyperinflation prediction. Questions for the members of the cult on here - how did Japan survive for over 30 years with debt to GDP levels well over 200%? Does the cult think they are cleverer than the Fed!

I am very lucky in many ways - but it’s not really luck that made me invest in gold miners. Always been a bit of a contra investor but unlike you it’s not because I am a “believer” just that I prefer high risk high reward undervalued or under appreciated stocks.

Surprised you listen to a marxist economist! As always there is some sense in this analysis but a lot of hyperbole. Yes US debt is rising faster than growth and there is falling demand for US debt but arguing that the US cant pay its debt is silly! In contrast to this assertion that the Fed will resort to printing money causing hyperinflation its been doing the opposite - QT has helped to reduce inflation from 9% in 2022 to just 3%! The Fed has a tough balancing act to follow but to argue that we go from here to hyperinflation and a run on the banks would require the Fed to make a series of catastrophic mistakes. Like most youtubers this is short on evidence and long on opinions - I can see how it appeals to someone with blind faith and a cult like belief in the end of days but capitalism has always been a balancing act and with independent central banks across the G7 we are better placed than ever to manage the risks. That doesnt mean there aren't risks - not least political instability - but to get from here to 1930s style hyperinflation is a huge leap. I prefer to be more sanguine. Things are never as good or as bad as predicted!

Retired banker - fair point, I am guilty of exaggerating. While the USD is still used in most trade and 90% of FX trades the Chinese are trying to encourage the use of the yuan and given concerns over the US foreign policy it’s likely USD transactions will decrease. Of course the yuan is also a fiat currency and isn’t going to be gold backed.

No “the banks” are NOT stocking up on gold. It’s not a fact! G7 central banks have bought zero gold in this bull run! They don’t need to. It’s the Non G7 central banks that have replaced about 20% of their USD reserves with gold. Why? Not because they believe your crazy gold bug conspiracies but because they fear a depreciating USD and a world where the US government can seize USD assets. The USD remains the global currency used in 90% of trades - no sign of that changing!

That’s a bit harsh. Bottomdollar the UT shows wether the instigator (aggressor ) of the trade was a seller or a buyer- it’s largely irrelevant as by the time it’s recorded the effect on the share will show anyway- a bit like chartists these people like to believe they have an inside track and are ahead of the game. Probably trying to convince themselves more than anything else !

Also not looking at my portfolio! Expect more of this turbulence over the next few years- the same factors driving up the POG will occasionally scare the markets and result in a flight from risk and ALL junior miners are perceived as high risk. Doesn’t change the potential reward when we mitigate the risk.

Apologies for my nonsensical post - what I meant to say was that without CNR we ONLY had a short term life as a viable producer and so the market was really valuing us as an explorer - ie a very high risk investment regardless of the POG ! While we may all be very confident the the management will deliver at La India the wider market perceives MTL as what we currently are. That’s fine by me and should be by anyone who bought at a decent average! It’s called value investing is t it? Why moan that the market hasn’t caught on yet? If it had we “value investors” wouldn’t be here. I am not arguing that the POG isn’t a key fundamental just that it isn’t the THE key fundamental and it would be more interesting to discuss other drivers. Even if gold went through $5k and beyond(which given the crazy geopolitics it might) MTLs share wont rise much until we are seen as a long term producer

Good list from SandR but as always performance is fairly arbitrary depending on what start date you use. MTL was less than 3p in Jan 2024! So even with the slight pull back we have seen over 400% growth in 18 months! Not too shabby. Thats not because of the POG but because with the CNR acquisition we have a viable short term future as a producer not just an explorer!

I don’t disagree Punter but the market is possibly looking primarily at mine life rather than the status of reserves in the ground. Bird in the hand and all that!

Interesting list. I hold some THX so can comment on that - it’s down 13% in a week and 3% today- similar to MTL no debt, low asic, great in ground resources but limited mine life and only 1 operating mine! So like MTL is perceived as high risk and is being hit by anti risk sentiment despite booming gold price. MTL and THX with low ASICS don’t need a higher POG - like all of us they need geopolitical stability- be careful what you wish for

It’s just another example of why obsessing about the gold price is unhelpful in relation to our share price. Junior Gold miners (all of them not just MTL) are perceived as high risk and markets are nervous about an AI and tech bubble so anything perceived as high risk is being sold. Animal spirits, perceived risk are as important as fundamentals in the short term but in the longer term our fundamentals will ensure our success

Come on let’s be serious- yes this is a great opportunity but it’s high risk - all mining is. Any company with just 1 operating mine could see production halted for any number of reasons - accidents, climate change, mechanical failures, cyber attacks, political unrest, political pressure etc etc. doesn’t mean we shouldn’t invest here but do so with open eyes. Key mitigation is to get 2 mines operating in separate jurisdictions- we are 2 years from that

I also sold all my tech stocks 3 weeks ago after reading how NVIDIA was lending money to its customers to buy its chips! If that’s not a bubble what is? The risk associated with junior miner like MTL is high but so is the reward! Those like us who are attracted to high risk high reward are in early- the rest will follow when risk is mitigated- a rising gold price increases the reward but doesn’t mitigate the risk! That’s the point some here are missing when they obsess over the gold price.

LHC your concept of what is a fact differs to mine. We agree Runruno has less than 2 years to run and that the gold price is a critical element in FCF but it should be clear even to you in your understandable excitement that it is not the key element in the share price. That is clear from the facts. Ultimately our opinions are meaningless. I suggest the facts of the share price are closer to my analysis than yours. Daily gold price movements are not moving the share price. Only mitigation of the perceived risks will do that- or as also appears to be happening the massive insider trading ahead of the release of news that mitigates risk. Not the price of gold and certainly not your silly conspiracy about the end of FIAT money.

The link between junior minors share price and gold is linear and delayed. What moves shares like MTL is not daily rises in the price of gold. The market will respond when the perceived risks are mitigated. However confident we are the reality is that we only have 1 mine producing that is scheduled to end within 2 years in a jurisdiction traditionally unfriendly to mining. Once that changes the market will behave rationally and the multiple applied to FCF, P/E or P/NAV will increase our share price exponentially. Stop obsessing over the gold price. Who knows where this bull rally will end but it isn’t going to help MTL until the market perceives less risk. That means La India producing and Dupax confirmed

Some excellent posts today examining the risk factors and how MTL mitigates them over the next 2 years to reach 26p. Gold may well continue its bull run fuelled by weakening USD, tariff and fear of inflation. But we are not going back to the gold standard where central banks fix the POG and peg their currencies to it. Just as in 1980 when the last bull run ended with the POG at $850 ($3,500 in real terms) this one will end. It might be 3 years, 5 or 10 but it will end. Remember between 1980 and 1999 the POG fell by 70%. MTL should have plenty of time to deliver huge returns before the next cycle begins but not all miners will!

By definition you can’t see wild cards. The fundamental driver of the POG is indeed the Trump administrations deliberate policy of reducing the value of the USD coupled with geopolitical instability. The POG is not the key driver of the MTL share price- that is obvious from the data. So let’s stop discussing the POG! De risking MTL by having multiple mines in multiple jurisdictions is the key. La India and Dupax are all that matters here. Leave your nonsense about FIAT money and the end of days to your gold bug forums.

The slight fall in the POG is almost certainly to do with the Gaza ceasefire- so in the big picture it’s great news. Success in Ukraine or more global stability will see the POG fall back further but we should applaud that if it happens not fear it. MTLs share price will exponentially increase once it is de- risked with 2 sustainable mines in 2 jurisdictions. Increases in the POG will only see linear gains at the expense of more global misery.

Obviously increasing the multiple requires the management to mitigate the risk factors- which I am sure they are focused on