Member Info for Major4legs

DB specifically said 3-6 months to announce a new mine - I think he also said SE Asia but can’t remember that for sure.

GDXJ was down 8.5% today so comparatively a strong day for MTL - US sell off due to chip manufacturers spooked by Broadcom missing a revenue forecast- shows how fragile and twitchy tech markets are.

Fully agree with ISA. The big picture is the driver here for the next few weeks. Gold is down 3% today, GDXJ the best proxy for junior gold miners is down 8.5%. It’s nothing to do with THX. The US got spooked by a sell off of Chip manufacturers because Broadcom missed its revenue forecast- if tech fails everything fails. We are invested in THX because we are contra investors so don’t panic when the reason you invested manifests. Nothing will happen here and then all off a sudden in a few months it will happen very quickly

Can’t see anything significant happening here for 3 months - 12-15p range based on macro events- gold, Iran etc. Then we will hopefully have sector rerate based on 24 month trailing average, new mine announcement, drill results, and La India commissioning which should push us past 15p. But it’s AIM you never know. Candy might persuade a crypto buddy to start buying.

Risks to humanity /MTL share price

death 100%

Climate change 100%

Social media 100%

Pandemics, pestilence, plague 30%

AI 25%

Nuclear war 10%

All can be mitigated by smiling, walking in nature, playing with your kids/grandkids

If we all fall down the rabbit hole and endlessly debate the same points lose patience sell all our shares and put the cash into AI which then decides all humanity is stupid and wipes us off the face of the planet

If a second mine in another jurisdiction is confirmed and La India produces it is transformative and will give MTL a better share price multiple than THX. However THX should rerate ahead of MTL in Q3 on RNS confirmation of Douta mine! DYOR - both are great bets IMHO

It’s a complex judgement- both offer a 3x current share price by 2028 MTL probably offers slightly higher upside with higher risk - THX pays a dividend . Hold both and adjust holding according to your risk/income appetite

Who knows but at some point it’s in all parties interests - apart from Isreal where the regime need a perma war to survive- when it does in Q4?we should have an alignment of 3 key factors to boost the share price. 1. Gold bull run resumes with steady growth driven by non G7 central bank purchases to hedge US policies, 2. Junior Gold miners rerated as 24 trailing average exceed $4k 3. MTL RNS on new mine and/or La India commissioning

This won’t have much effect on the demand drivers - it would improve liquidity and the efficiency of the wholesale market but the key driver of gold remains non G7 central banks. Good news today- Iran peace dividend pushing oil and DXY down and GDXJ up - should see a small MTL rise off the back of this.

I think you just proved my point Lee.

We should be encouraging diverse views and debate. Greater diversity leads to better decisions, well proven by research. We couldn’t get anything really new in the presentation as that would have broken financial regulation- significant news requires an RNS. On the hand we did get a better steer on the direction of travel which on balance was positive but it does mean that this’s share is unlikely to rerate for at least 3 months! The incessant ramping of some is very tiresome and I hope that Sakura, EL, Surrey and others continue to balance it with thoughtful constructive criticism. When I first joined this board after the Condor acquisition I was shocked at the constant uncritical ramping and conspiracies from Lee and his acolytes and was genuinely shocked. I dont think these discussions make much difference to the share price but I am sure some rational investors have been put off buying because of the “cultists” ramping.

We are all looking at this from within our bubble. This is a small share, small MCAP in unfavourable highly risky sector, very low volumes, very low liquidity. All the marketing in the world wont help us. Having now watched the presentation I like the strategy to get a 2nd mine in another jurisdiction, pay dividends and move to main LSE 2028. If we do all that and meet execution targets this is a 4 bagger in 2 years. There is always a chance of known and unknown risks ruining the party and frustratingly it won’t move for a few months. Nothing much happening here until RNS on new mine or gold pour la india

I think the presentation was neutral- only an RNS with confirmation of new mine and / or further progress in La India will move the dial. This move down is sector wide due to Iran war - GDXJ down over 3%. It briefly looked positive last night before war went off again. Trump and his friends are making too much money out of the volatility to want it to stop!

CFC I am sure that’s right. I am happy with my current holding and average butmight rotate out more from other high reward opportunities later. For new investors this does now seem a good entry point - risks remain but are being mitigated and 30p + Q1 27 and 50p + Q4 28 are reasonable targets

Fair to say we were both very wrong on the gold price Lee! Happy with my investment decisions - so far it’s worked out well. Lots of opportunities out there! A new mine in 2028 might persuade me to rotate some back but need more info on funding, location, size etc. like EL I could pull the trigger early but still see a bigger upside with lower risk elsewhere. Good luck with your all in approach, it’s not a zero sum game if MTL wins we all win.

We have been here before but crucially it is Iran and not Trump claiming that an agreement is close and the straits will open within a month. Oil is down 4%. If it holds the direction of travel for gold should edge back upwards. If Stagflation wins out over AI productivity gains the bull run could well regain momentum. Timing for La India could be perfect

The brokers will also be using a gold price of $2.5-3.5 ! The war does seem to have established a new floor of $4.5k and by first pour the trailing 24 month average used by analysts will be nearer $4k. Predicting future blended ASIC across a 10-12 LOM is as accurate as Lees gold price forecasting

Agreed this is the big news - 2nd mine working in SE Asia in 2028 is very significant- no RNS for 3 months is very frustrating. Couldn’t listen to the presentation- was this in Q&A or main body- any facts ? How is this to be paid for -FCF will be tight- loans - dilution ? Location? I guess non of this was revealed so we will all be guessing for a few months!

MTL now has a bigger concession agreed with Ortega regime so they probably need to drill that before the rest of the Condor land. Not sure we will see the 2nd CVR.