Member Info for Major4legs

It is binary in the sense that if La India is not built or delayed or something occurs in Nicaragua to stop production then MTL has no income- I agree that is unlikely but to a market analyst that is the binary risk and is much more important than the gold price.. It’s not what we think that matters here. Once La India produces and we have another mine that will change.

Gold is proving very resilient despite the strengthening USD - evidenced by rising DXY - in response to Warsh’s hawkish stance. Suggests the link to real yields continues to be broken- the driver for gold at the these and higher levels is central bank purchases. MTL is less volatile than GDXJ and less dependent on the gold price because it is valued on the La India binary risk not declining Runruno production.

Good points - we didn’t fall as much on the way down either and we have been less volatile , volumes have been very low and we are a very small company in an unloved sector. However, June 11th is not a random date picked to fit the numbers it’s the turning point for oil and gold based on the peace deal. The facts are clear. The majority of holders realise the current disconnect to the sector and short term irrelevance of the last RNS. It’s why we are here.

Since Iran war price trough on June 11th GDXJ up 20%, Gold up 6%, MTL up 4% - we continue to underperform the market because we are perceived as a producer (the name probably doesn’t help) - this is priced on a binary risk of La India - the next RNS on a shovel ready mine should move the dial

It’s all wild speculation- maybe wishful thinking on my part - personally would be happy to see La India built + the other shovel ready project and then firm up resources in Abra and new concessions and then sell out to bigger company.

Personally much happier following the AGM observations and RNS - we should be in a hurry in my view- the gold bull run and AI driven commodity supercycle is a big opportunity and we need to scale to take advantage before the cycle turns or we get left behind by bigger beasts.

Fair enough but my point is they went from a 6k granny loan to a property empire worth billions in little more than a decade - the luxury London market was awash with Russian and Arab money which they brilliantly took advantage of through their audacity. It’s a very different mindset to the steady engineering approach of the CEO. A good balance on the board but it would be good to know who is driving the strategy as it will influence investment decisions.

Thanks Aulnspired. Did you get a sense of who is driving the strategy. Candy seems prominent. He and his brother made their fortune flipping assets in a bull property market in London using Russian money in the 90s. Is this pattern repeating here using our FCF, is a discernible exit strategy developing.Build up resources and multi mine operation and flip it before bull cycle turns. Hope so. Looking forward to the next RNS

Lee what are you on about? I hold over a million shares. The RNS is good news as I clearly stated but it isn’t what you claim it to be. I remember that you also said Dupax was a certainty and insulted everyone who suggested it wasn’t nailed on. Now you claim that “intent” to explore a target and firm up resources in 2 -3 years reduces risk. The next RNS may well deliver the shovel ready project at which point I will consider buying more. My other big gold miner holding has gone up over 6% today, as has GDXJ without any RNS. Bullying and reporting factual posts won’t change reality.

The RNS is clearly good news for all of us. But let’s be honest- it’s not going to lead to a rerate of the share price . It’s good long term quality target not a JORC resource yet so can’t add be used in a valuation. Best news is that its capital light so no funding or dilution risk As I type JDXJ up 7% - MTL up 6.5%. The share will rerate on more positive La India news, an RNS about a shovel ready mine and when the 24 month trailing gold average exceeds $4k in the autumn.

Good to see the share price rising - I would be wary of associating the rise with the sky leak however- GDXJ is up 6% on the back of golds recovery and Iran deal. A leak of a new exploration area that won’t produce for several years is unlikely to move the dial much. Are we sure this is what Bowden promised in 3-6 months - it is most definitely not a shovel ready mine! Until we get an RNS I would be wary of making assumptions on this.

If true and its source is a banking insider this adds to risk - a banking source implies it requires funding! All speculation until we get an RNS

Quite right- I didn’t - just my usual knee jerk reaction when I see the word FIAT which is deeply triggering! But although no one knows I am pretty sure that in a general deflationary spiral of FIAT currency a share in a junior gold miner based in Nicaragua isn’t going to be much use - a shot gun or a machete would be better- sorry that was my general point!

Tornadotony why are you holding a share priced in £s if you think there will be a FIAT devaluation?

Hardly massive - in any case TSX is up 7% so should see us back in the 60s at least. If the deal holds back on track pre douta

Good news - is there perhaps a link between announcing a deal and the FOMC decision next week? Nice to see gold returning to it role as the Trump hedge

Steady on Sakura - this is a forum to discuss these things. We are all entitled to an opinion, as long as it is based on fact not belief. Of course no one, including economists, knows what will happen but that to my mind is what makes it so fascinating. Even Lee in his parallel world where the USD collapses “quickly “ has some interesting insights .

This drop is driven by ETF flows and Comex not the main driver for the gold bull run - central bank buying. It could go bear in the short term . The oil shock did cause some cbs like Turkey to sell gold but China, Poland and others continued buying. At higher prices they need less gold to replace treasuries in their reserves but US inflation and debt is up, which coupled with poor discipline in the Fed, will result in stagflation. My view is that AI super cycle productivity gains will come too late. In this climate cbs continue to buy gold all be it more slowly than the last 2 years. Fed rate decisions are the key indicator. If Warsh proves to be more disciplined than expected gold bears could win out but I doubt he will keep his job for long if he does raise rates. This is a reminder to all of us that gold is not a one way bet. We don’t know yet if this like the 1980s, where gold went nowhere for decades or like previous bull runs and this is a mid run correction

On these volumes I don’t think anyone is doing anything! Just waiting

Real yields haven’t reacted- at least not yet - which keeps indicators bullish for gold. If Warsh bottles it next week a recovery could be on. Markets expect a qtr point gain before Xmas - but he has time. He can probably get away with a hold and keep his job.