Member Info for Major4legs

You are all experienced investors and know that tomorrow is a Q1 results meeting- without an RNS they CANT make any significant announcements tomorrow- why are saying you “hope” or you “believe” that they will- you must know that is impossible!

Sorry 24 month trailing average should be over $4,000 not $4,500

I agree with your points ISA & Timid but at some point if the gold floor stays above $4,500 the majors are going to have to do something with their huge FCF! Either M&A or buybacks. By the autumn trailing 24 month average should be over $4,500. This and/or a majors bidding a 50% premium to buy a junior could be the instigator for a massive rerate. Pressure from some investors to sell at that point could be decisive

Wouldn’t a buyer prefer to see Thor take the risk and build the mine first?

Yeah all the indicators are pointing to stagflation = lower real interest rates which historically is good for gold. It depends on non G7 central banks - gold sell off by Turkey and Russia to fund FX but others seem to still be buying to decrease dollar reserves

We all keep talking about macro and micro motivations for buying or selling this share but the reality is the volumes remain tiny - it’s only us - a few retail investors- and the big guns Candy and Drachs - personal motivation of them is more important than Iran. What is their end game?

I agree and think most investors on here realise that we don’t need an ever increasing gold price to see big returns from MTL. De-risking and thereby increasing the FCF multiple/decreasing the NAV discount would provide much more leverage

Watch GDXJ and GDX - if that rises while gold is flat it’s a good sign of a rerate. Autumn should see a big rerate as the 24 trailing average should go above $4k. Agree that Iran war and seasonal issues are a drag on gold. Stagflation looks more likely in medium term which is good for gold

Hardly crashing! No visible structural mechanism here - real interest rate indicators are flat. Looks more like ETF flows, and maybe more central bank selling from Turkey and others to fund FX crisis

Can’t speak for others but yes I get it. You may not have claimed MTL was risk free but others most certainly have claimed just that. This board was rife with ramping and claims that there were no risks, and that anyone who thought that MTL and gold wasn’t a one way risk free bet was a moron. The level of invective aimed at those who disagree was indicative of a cult not an investment board.

Likewise - I have lost a lot of money in the past - believing in “inevitable risk free” mining shares - in most cases my holding was diluted away. Its failure not success that makes me wary.

There are a lot of “straw man” arguments on this board. I don’t know if any ex Condor holders are bitter- I am certainly not - personally I was very glad it was bought by an actual producer, otherwise we would have been diluted into oblivion. As per other posts the price was “fair” as that was the best available. It’s been a good deal and I have made a good return. I am surprised at the level of emotion expressed by many MTL LTHs - it’s understandable given the phoenix like rise but not conducive to good decision making and makes me highly sceptical of future prospects. Still heavily invested but uncomfortable with my exposure as a result of all the hero worship and ramping expressed by some.

Back to Sakura’s pertinent question- any insight to when next drilling results will be released? Don’t know why anyone reading this board would have such insight?

We will see - HMRC found Rayner not guilty - 2 independent bodies: the parliamentary watchdog and electoral commissions will decide if Farage broke rule five of the code of conduct which obliges MPs to “fulfil conscientiously” requirements relating to their registration of interests. It states that new MPs must register all their current financial interests, and any registrable benefits (other than earnings) received in the 12 months before their election. This must be done within one month of their election, and they must register any change in those registrable interests within 28 days.

Maybe directing your forensic lens towards a party whose leaders have been convicted of taking Russian intelligence bribes, been regular paid contributors on Russian state media and accepted millions in private donations from foreign crypto billionaires would serve democracy better

You had better hope not - last time this happened Thatcher and Howe followed Volker - rates went ballistic and the gold price fell 65%

We better all watch out for the dip at 25p! With our liquidity that could set us back a few days!

We have discussed the risks and most agree the probability of La India pouring in Q4 are good) 70-99% depending on your judgement) so what price do we expect Jan 27 and Q4 27 based on what we know - not what we hope for!

All indicators are positive here. Medium term indicators for gold are also bullish- post war stagflation will benefit gold and a sector rerate is on the cards when 24 month trailing average goes through $4k in the autumn

It’s all positive - not the Douta construction and permit or Oxide resources confirmation we are waiting for but indicates that Phase 2 is viable and builds the case for upscaling THX to mid tier multi jurisdiction miner