Member Info for Major4legs

Of course animal spirits and sentiment can drive shares beyond fundamentals but IMHO MTL isn’t undervalued. The key is the multiple- once in full production we derisk significantly and go from 3 to 5 or more pushing fair value much higher. Anyone know what the tax situation is likely to be, some goldies seem to have had nice tax breaks in Nicaragua

Doesn’t matter what we think - juniors are being valued at $3,500 gold, so forward earnings at 145k oz ASIC of 1,400 discounted FCF and multiple of 3 - high risk pre build and 2.92b shares = 16p

Tikitaki junior goldies are not valued on forward cash flow using spot! Generally the market uses a mid cycle average - about $3,000. if you use $3,000 and a discounted multiple to FCF for Nicaraguan risk you will see we are not as undervalued as you think. Gold will probably be $4.5-6k by the time we are producing 145k in La India and 2028 should see shareholders get fair value then - but not yet

Track GDXJ and it’s easy to separate the local noise from the macro sector trend. GDXJ up 6% this morning

Gold is up 3%, GDXJ +3% Oil down 3% DXY down 0.6% 10yr Treasury yields down 1% all the indicators moving in our favour- share price will follow eventually- but like all populists Trump has to sow chaos and claim only he can fix it so watch out for Cuba which will hit us hard - but that too shall pass. I suspect we will be on a rollercoaster for a while

Aulnspired - we need more analysis and diverse views on this board. There is far too much “groupthink” and attempts to shut down debate. It’s understandable as many LTHs have huge amounts invested here and are very emotionally attached - both very dangerous IMHO but obviously entirely their call. It can lead to poor judgement though. This is a high risk high reward investment and as such it’s not undervalued as people keep insisting. Calling someone a bed wetter because they are aware of a risk and not afraid to call it out is not only silly it’s dangerous from an investment perspective. Let’s keep the debate going based on facts not just beliefs!

Something must be very wrong in the universe as I find myself agreeing with Lee! I trimmed my exposure after Dupax failed but MTL remains a major part of my portfolio and will for at least 2 years. That’s when the share price is important not now! All the macro indicators Gold, Oil, DXY, 10Y gilts and treasury yields are up! Which is weird and points to stagflation! Which points to a rising gold price in the medium term. Our ASIC will be higher but at anything like these gold prices FCF remains impressive

That looks reasonable - you can add in some fundamentals depending on your investment time line and then model against different assumptions against that . POG, ASIC, production, the P/FCF multiple. If all goes well 2028 should see 145k oz, ASIC will almost certainly be higher than $1,200 give stagflation risks and POG who knows? Currently I would apply a multiple of 3 but by 2028 with full production and a stable Nicaragua this might be higher- may 5 or even 6. The maths is simple but lots of risk around assumptions- that’s why it seems so cheap right now.

Isn’t a low share price a good thing right now? It means we can get more shares into our ISAs in a few days time

Ok that doesn’t help us but what I have been able to verify is that the government did take BHMBs processing plant claiming that BHMB did not have a concession - BHMB claim they didn’t need one because they were just processing artisan miners ore! So yes I agree it looks bad. But other miners have had good relations with the Ortega regime and we know MTL are good at this sort of thing. Not sure this changes much for MTL - their board is not naive. What’s your point?You are a Condor investor so its not a moral issue We know Nicaragua is risky, we know MTL is high risk high reward - that’s why its undervalued on fundamentals and that’s why we love it! What is your point? you must know de-ramping on chat boards doesn’t work!

B88 you would be a lot more credible if you quoted credible sources. La Prensa is a highly prejudiced anti Sandinista propaganda outlet funded by US agencies like NED and USAID. Anything you quote from La Prensa can be instantly dismissed as propaganda I am afraid!

MTL like most junior minors is massively undervalued on a forward PE if you assume a) that gold will be at the current price in the future and b) that a junior miner with a single mine in a high risk jurisdiction will get more than a PE multiple of 3. Point a) is moot, no one knows but all junior miners are currently valued as if gold will be a lot lower than $4,500 in a year. IMHO the POG will remain high, gold bugs say even higher but the market currently disagrees. Point b) isn’t contentious. Fair value is more like 3 or 4!

The meeting in Nicaragua was possibly linked to an acquisition of sorts - Ortega has released political prisoners and cancelled visas for Cubans,Haitians and Venezuelans to appease Trump so the political risk may become lessoned - both leaders like a deal!

Looking at the markets I think everyone is spooked and no one has a scoobies! Our bond vigilantes and hedge fund managers are causing mayhem! Post Truss they see smell blood and are pricing in interest rate rises . US 10Y treasury yields are also up again approaching 4.5%! Gold has been sold off to raise liquidity and the USD index continues to rise. Unless you have cash or need to liquidate to pay bills it’s time sit on your hands - maybe take up a relaxing hobby like gardening and come back in a few weeks

The good news is we can get more shares into our ISAs after April 6th - not great if you need money now and with rising real interest rates and strengthening USD gold may be under pressure for some time. Hopefully by Q4 things will have settled down. Good time to be holding cash - I’m not- but as most of us are here for long term paper losses now aren’t material. A lesson for anyone who thought gold and junior miners weren’t risky assets.

Good point Chilliboots - all views are welcome and we shouldn’t filter contrary views - we should welcome them as honest debate that helps us all. Especially from people living in Nicaragua. But we should also be sceptical of sources wether that’s a right wing US backed outlet like La Prensa, You Tube gold bugs or the FT!

I take your point about colonial arrogance but your sources are not verified or credible- Richard Grenfell is no longer a high ranking US official- there are several allegations against him. Nicaragua is already heavily sanctioned by the US. Trump doesn’t seem too bothered about politics or ideology- he is transactional regardless - he is happy to do deals with Venezuela, Putin, Mandani etc. If Ortega is willing to engage he might have a better relationship with Trump than previous administrations. Wether that is better for the Nicaraguan people is a different question.

You don’t need to be an expert in charts to see the likely impact on gold of this war. History and orthodox economics, not the YouTube end of days stuff, suggests that gold will rebound as policy makers struggle to react to stagflation caused by rising oil prices. The initial flow into the USD will reverse and real interest rates will fall as the need to balance growth and inflation hits home. The key metric is now US10 year treasuries if this rises gold will follow

I am not sure you can verify anything in La Prensa which is a highly prejudicial source. Clearly there is much to criticise in Ortega's regime but it should be balanced against the good relations Mako and Calibre have with the regime. There is always moral ambiguity involved in investing in such places.

I would be suspicious of anything reported by La Prensa - its got a long history of US backing and opposition to the Sandinista regime. Like wise Richard Grenfell - lots of allegations against him! However it does highlight risk of doing business in Nicaragua and not aligning closely with Ortega. Which is why the other video with Candy and the regime is so important. Mako and Calibre have done ok so it doesn’t look like a sector wide issue. Not sure it’s so different to the US, Trump has threatened quite a few companies that don’t do what he wants; CNN, Anthropocene etc