Member Info for Major4legs

Others with more knowledge than me might disagree but my understanding is that timescales on Dupax are predictable because the plan is to process the ore at Runruno once that mine expires Q1 2027. It will take 6-9 months to repurpose Runruno so Q4 2027 is best guess for Dupax IF it proves economical. We should get drilling results in 8 weeks. IF they show a resource of over 200k oz/pa gold equivalent as geological surveys suggest and a 10 year mine life in parallel with La India it’s a game changer. Highly speculative until we get results and lots of downside risk but potentially transforms MTL into a £1 share not a penny share over the next 2 years

The fundamentals will drive this share forward, newspaper tips help. Valuations are difficult because the sector and the region are both seen as risky but sustained FCF, dividends and resource upgrades will give us several multiples of the current price. Don’t rely on gold to go up in price. The latest IMF data and gold council survey shows central bank purchases have slowed and will only increase moderately from here. Unless we get another geopolitical shock, always possible with Trump at the helm, gold will continue to drift sideways. Fears of USD decline and debt are priced in now. Don’t hope for ever greater gold price increases cos it means the world is in trouble. THX doesn’t need a higher gold price and if everything goes to hell how are you going to spend your profits?

If technical analysis worked everyone would have 100% foresight. The Gold price moves on a wide range of factors but this bull run has been driven by central banks (not the G7 which haven’t increased gold reserves) so charts are useless. Fears of a USD collapse have encouraged central banks to increase gold reserves and reduce Treasuries but this has now slowed as fears of gold peaking and the apparent fact that they have now hit their reserve targets have taken hold. Most banks expect to moderately increase purchases next year which suggests gold will maintain current highs but not go much higher. I have invested in THX because it has a low ASIC and no debt and doesn’t need wild speculation of ever increasing gold prices to make a lot of money.

BP you are confusing ECB purchases with gold transfers from euro zone central banks as part of the euro agreemen- https://www.gold.org/what-we-do/official-institutions/central-bank-gold-agreements/european-central-bank-and-gold which began in 1999 - the value of this gold had grown due to the gold price but the tonnage has remained unchanged at 506 tonnes. https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/gold-reserves

Debt isn't a problem in itself for economists and from an economic perspective its not true to say that debt has wiped out growth but no doubt that the debt to GDP number is concerning. Interesting discussion but far too big a topic for this board. Everyone can do their own research. Happy to shut up and we can see what price gold is at Christmas! My bet is under $3,500!

Maybe - but why haven't we seen any increase in gold for 6 months? I agree the BRICS would love to break US hegemony and establish a new reserve currency but it wont be gold backed. Any one who has studied the reasons why the "gold standard" was abandoned knows that gold isn't capable of that anymore given the scale of world trade. I also fear that the effect on US living standards might have dire consequences for the world and anyone who has studied the interwar period in Germany might be concerned that Trump is merely Hindenburg and that in this case history will be repeated as farce first and then tragedy!

Maybe I am not an intelligent person but not sure I understand what you mean by "this century's entire US growth story is purely based on money printing"

Actual GDP growth this century is $20.08 trillion, inflation adjusted its $11.09, net QE following QT programmes means the balance sheet is now $6.6 trillion so I don't think your statement is accurate if I have understood it correctly!

Yes BP - the IMF publishes this data and other organisations like https://www.gold.org/goldhub/data/gold-reserves-by-country report on it. This clearly shows that G7 countries; Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK and USA have either sold their gold reserves or just maintained them between 2002 and August 2025. The world gold council ( a trade body which tends to be very bullish on gold) report https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/central-bank-gold-reserves-survey-2025 also shows that while most other non G7 central banks expect to increase gold reserves they expect to do so only moderately. There is no support for bugs assertion that they will abandon treasuries. This report provides evidence that the gold price is underpinned by moderate central bank demand and will probably remain in its current range under $3,500 unless we see a dramatic increase in geo-political volatility. US debt levels and the future inflationary big beautiful bill measures are priced in. I prefer this hard evidence to hill billy tik tok influencers or this boards bugs like DDD or LHC. Go back and research their predictions - they are always predicting a collapse in the USD and treasuries causing a massive spike in gold which never materialises. MTL doesn't require blind faith in a conspiracy theory. It has a proven track record of delivery, low ASIC, zero debt which crucially for an AIM share means reduced risk of dilution and impressive resources, its a strong buy at these price levels.

BP it’s true that many central banks have increased their gold reserves and sold off some of their Treasuries- that’s a response to volatility and yes it explains why the price of gold has increased. However with the notable exception of China the G7 banks have not increased gold reserves. Only the US and Germany have significant reserves. US gold reserves are huge but valued at $40/oz on their balance sheet. If they were to revalue them at market prices and start selling it would have a significant effect on reducing the price of gold - no suggestion that they will but highlights the limitations of gold as a reserve. My argument is not that gold isn’t used as a partial reserve by some central banks but that the bugs central argument that it will replace treasuries as THE global reserve is nonsense. For various reasons: liquidity, supply limitations, volatility, cost of storage, etc it can’t. Gold will only go up if geopolitical volatility goes up. $4 or $5k gold next year as bugs keep predicting means millions of deaths worldwide and the breakdown of the world economy. Not something I will wish for - even if it makes me rich! How will I spend my money in such a dystopian world!

What are golds merits exactly? - it doesn’t have any other than as a hedge against volatility, inflation and the USD - tariffs feed into this volatility so of course gold has benefited from tariff wars. My problem with the bugs posting about ever increasing gold prices and nonsense about the end of FIAT money is that it undermines the credibility of this stock which I am heavily invested in. Rational investors get put off by conspiracy theories and over look the sound fundamentals and incredible value here. Go and post your gold bug theories on conspiracy sites and stick to the fundamentals on this board. When you do I enjoy your knowledge posts about MTL

I am sorry my dear bugs, this is classic Trump misinformation. The FT article makes it clear that the White House has announced it will clarify the position, there won’t be tariffs on Gold! Trump did the same on copper announcing big tariffs before excluding all metals from tariffs. The copper price crashed 30% on the news! Let’s see what happens to gold when it’s announced. Thankfully MTLs low ASIC doesn’t require gold bug dreams to come true to see its share price rise.

If the market believes the forecast that there IS 500,000 oz of gold that can be extracted at the ASIC of $1,000 at an average gold price of $3,250 then the NAV is circa £1 billion and NAV per share is circa £1.60 - so in trading terms we have a potential 4 bagger !

I don't have todays numbers to calculate NAV but as of the last published accounts Dec 31st 2024 Assets = 279.07m CAD, Liabilities 77.82m CAD - NAV =201.25 and NAV per share = 201.25 m / 664.33m shares = 0.30 CAD which is approx 016 GBP so based on book value we are trading at a premium - not unusual for a mining share with no debt, low ASIC and an exciting portfolio of potential resources - but hard to argue that we are undervalued until these resources are proven and probable. In the short term strong FCF and the divi should under pin the share while management work to prove resources. One to hold for further updates and news

It all depends on your timing - the gold price peaked 4 months ago so you can’t factually describe it as keeping on trending upwards within that timeframe. We will see what happens. Still happy to bet £100 to charity with any gold bugs that gold is under $3,500 at Christmas. Doesn’t mean I am not very happy to be invested in MTL with over 4 million shares as long as ASIC remains circa $1,200 and we are debt free with low risk of dilution.

The big news was the crash in copper prices caused by Trump excluding metals from 50% tariffs. The real action continues to be around tariffs and dollar price volatility- expect gold to continue in this range while Trump is here.

Its not that straight forward and dishonest to argue that gold always goes up over the long term. If you bought gold in at its peak 1980 price of $850 it would have taken you 24 years before you made a profit in real inflation adjusted terms! If you bought gold at its peak in 2012 you would have made a loss unless you held for over 8 years!

In the very long term from 1971 onwards equities including dividends out perform gold. MTL is a much better buy than gold, if gold price increases MTL provides massive leverage, while if it decreases MTL provides a solid hedge with an ASIC of $1,200! Gold is not a one way bet!

Buying will continue here - thankfully demand for this share is largely detached from gold price spikes or retail psychology and charts - and based on old fashioned fundamentals. We have untypical buying action driven by Drachs that has accelerated our price to levels I hadn’t expected until the pour at La India was closer.

He is the non exec that Drachs appointed as there representative as is their right. Nothing unusual. Common practice

I think that Helga Evans at 88 is listed as the beneficiary but from what I can see her son Roderick as CEO runs the family holdings- either way I can’t find anything that makes me nervous about their involvement. It balances Candy and looks like a move to diversify their holdings into gold and helium (Helix) But someone with better financial investigative skills than me might be able to uncover more. Worth keeping an eye on. They have a very influential stake.

It’s a good idea for PIs with large holdings in MTL to find out more about Drachs. They have the right to a Non Exec on MTLs board and appointed Rob Marshall Drachs CEO - Marshall is an accountant - he has also acquired over 8 million MTL shares personally. Drachs is not overseen by Helga Evans but by her son Roderick (63). As a jersey based entity they are fairly secretive with a small online footprint but overall seem to take a strategic not a short term approach. Interview from 2012 in Yorkshire Post about having to be flexible to take advantage of opportunities and appointing leaders with the right approach for the moment to maintain the Evans dynasty. Its reasonable to assume they want to diversify out of their Evans property portfolio to build long term gains from the mining sector. If anyone else has found any other insights it would be helpful