Member Info for Major4legs

Not sure what fact you are referring to! Gold is a hedge against inflation but so are equities and other assets. Over the long term equities are a better hedge than gold. Even this century equities have outperformed gold and don’t forget that between 1980 and 2000 the gold price halved. Not suggesting that will happen now given current geopolitical volatility. I agree gold miners with no debt and low asics are undervalued based on fundamentals but that’s because the market seems them very risky as mining is a risky business. I invested in MTL for the high risk high reward so am quite happy here thanks. Just don’t believe in the gold cult. Sorry it’s rude to challenge someone’s religious faith so I shouldn’t question your beliefs. My apologies.

I know gold is usually described as a commodity but it isn’t really. It has very limited industrial use and could be described as “fiat” in that its value is taken on trust, as it has very little intrinsic value. If it was valued on its utility it would be a tiny fraction of its current value. Not so different to fiat currencies which at least have real economies backing them up rather than just cultural and historical concepts of wealth based on nice shiny metal!

Just because it’s in a book doesn’t make it viable! “Broken Money” like most of its genre is simplistic and highly speculative- doesn’t it advocate crypto not gold as a replacement for fiat currencies. Isn’t this all wishful thinking on behalf of right wing anti state anarchists. If Trump succeeds in trashing Bretton Woods the most likely replacement for US treasuries will be other fiat currencies! Equities, Gold and maybe even Crypto might play a minor role as they do now but reserves will remain largely fiat currencies. In any case the value of gold is “fiat” anyway as it has very little intrinsic value. All interesting stuff while we wait for MTLs value to be realised. We can have 2 years of this conversation!!!

You can’t explain how a physical illiquid asset with a total above ground value of $20 trillion can replace fiat currency treasuries worth $130 trillion. The gold standard was abandoned because it couldn’t support the massive growth in the global economy in 1972. 50 years later it doesn’t have a chance of even coming close. Japans has functioned with 2-300% debt to gdp ratios for 30 years because most of it is domestically owned. The US can cope with 120% quite easily just as it did in the 1940s and 50s for the same reason. Debt isn’t the problem here, especially as because of QE most of the debt isn’t owned by the central banks. Gold bugs don’t understand history or macro economics and their conspiracy theories and weird cult like beliefs put off rational investors.

POG is just moving on newsflows - Trump announces tariffs , Ford and GM announce lower profits on films POG goes up 2%. China trade deal or Ukraine peace treaty POG will fall 10-20%. No evidence of strategic central bank purchases. It’s ok we don’t need a bubble and a crash- anything above $2500 provides MTL with massive 10 year sustained profit one La India pours

The divi is 2% per quarter 8% per year, still better than you will get in a savings account. Bit more risk here given jurisdictions and mining risks but with no debt and low asic it’s a better bet than most mining companies

No country uses gold as a reserve currency. It is used as a hedge but it is too illiquid and there isn’t enough of it! Gold has peaked. Debt is no higher than 1948. Armageddon is t around the corner. Which is good news because if it was you wouldnt be able to spend your MTL profits in 2 years!

US debt is $34 trillion China holds $ 750 billion about 2% and about the same as the UK holds so even it replaces all its USD bonds with gold it won’t make much difference . Total above ground gold is about $20 trillion, US bonds alone are worth about $30 trillion and all global treasuries about $130 trillion! The numbers clearly show that gold bug conspiracies are nonsense and a return to the gold standard is not feasible. If US bonds are replaced as the global reserve it will be the Euro, the Yuan or a new BRICs currency not gold

Ultimately it will be growth and inflation that resolves the debt crisis not a return to the gold standard. The reasons the gold standard was abandoned are still pertinent. It won’t work. Post WW2 debt was paid off by the growth that followed the investment There is huge opportunity in Africa and the 4th world to generate growth. China is going to reap those rewards in Africa as the US has withdrawn. The west is ignoring the power of redistribution . MAGA and project 2025 and European inertia is gifting China the future. It’s all good for MTL.

Debt is high but not much higher relative to GDP than it was in 1946. Goldbugs Armageddon forecast isnt going to happen. Hopefully gold will stabilise around $3k and Trump will continue to backdown when bond markets oppose him and MTL will make us all loads of money. No need for goldbug conspiracies, just good old fashioned value investing principles

Is there any way of identifying who the big seller is and how big there holding is? Assuming this is one big seller

The RNS stated that shares from treasury were used to pay off a £5.5m bridging loan. Why did they use issued shares to do this if they have cash. Wouldn’t this have suppressed the SP? Good news the debt was paid off but might partly explain why we stayed below 7p for so long.

The mood has changed and the market now believes that the bond markets have tamed the maga 2025 project and the most likely medium term scenario is that tariffs will be low and manageable with a more gradual decline in US hegemony and lower global growth but no recession. In this climate gold will probably float between $2.5 and $3k and the USD/£ around 1.30-34. Gold bugs hoping for armageddon will be disappointed but its good news for the rest of us and doesn't change the exciting long term opportunity for MTL

JW330 you misunderstood my point. I don’t believe MTL is a bubble, I am heavily invested and see it as a great opportunity. Like others I think gold is entering bubble territory and like other bull runs it will end in a 20-40% retrenchment. We have to wait 2 years to realise value in MTL so it is relevant. MTL will still be profitable at a retrenched gold price - that is why I am invested here. Gold bugs and others fostering conspiracies about gold replacing USD treasuries do more harm by making MTL look like less attractive to serious investors. Getting off AIM and away from these distractors will be a big step forward for MTL

Whether you agree with Twain, Marx or Churchill on how history repeats itself most know that all bull runs eventually end. Gold is no different. No one knows when the bubble will burst. But it will. Gold bugs can’t answer how a physical illiquid asset that is expensive to store can possibly replace US treasuries. We are in danger of collapse no doubt and the days of USD hegemony may well be over but it won’t be gold that replaces it. Fortunately MTL doesn’t need a gold bubble to succeed. Like all well run businesses it needs stability and predictability not volatility and asset bubbles

No offence taken- a FTSE tracker isn't for me and certainly not in the current highly volatile situation and I am happy to hold a large position here but yes I am nervous about the geo political outlook. Gold bull runs 1971-81 and 1999-2011 both ended in a retrenchment so gold is no different to any other asset in that respect. MTL doesn't need a higher gold price to achieve multiples of its current share price and as a higher gold price from here will only happen if global volatility worsens so why would any sane person want the gold price to keep rising.

Be careful what you wish for! The POG and lower USD is indicative of a loss of confidence in US bonds - if this continues gold may go higher in the short term but it cant replace US treasuries as a global reserve - the numbers are just too big for an illiquid, physical resources that costs a lot to store. If the sell off accelerates in the worst case scenario we face global melt down and shares in a gold mine wont help you. Its more likely that the bond markets will force Trump to behave and we get less radical trade policies - this is what is currently happening - if it stabilises and deals are done then gold will probably retrench gently by 10% to where were before the trade war began. Worst case is that volatility continues forcing gold up significantly before it crashes along with everything else!

Generally agree with that, although more nervous about gold going above $3,500. MTL will clearly benefit if POG goes up but not if it goes up and then crashes, holders wont see a tangible benefit - unless they sell - for 2 years as we wont get a divi before them

Claiming gold should be $40k/oz to match the expansion of money in circulation puts the cart before the horse! One of the main reasons the world economy has boomed in the last 50 years is because the Gold Standard was finally abolished in 1971. If the USD had remained pegged to gold then expansion on this scale would have been impossible. The Gold Standard and Bretton Woods were too restrictive to allow the growth we have seen. We may now be seeing the birth of a new system that replaces US treasuries as the worlds reserve but it wont be based on gold. Its just not viable in the modern world. China now holds about $760 billion in US treasuries, down from 1.3 trillion - if it held $760 billion in gold it would weigh 6,500 tonnes, thats about a third of all the gold held in vaults globally! Gold has kept pace with inflation since 1971 but now is entering bubble territory. Gold has a role as a hedge against volatility as a store of wealth and as long as people believe someone will buy it but it has very little intrinsic value or use. MTL cant realise its value potential until Q4 2026, holders wont gain much from a rising gold price until then but they could lose a lot if we see the bubble burst before we pour at la India. It would be best for us if gold stabilised now. Gold isn't sustainable at $4k - it may get there but if it does it makes $2k much more likely which would be bad news for MTL holders. Be careful what you wish for.

DD the man in the street isnt buying gold - most barely have enough left over after rent or mortgage to buy anything - but retail investors are - north america and asia have seen large inflows into ETFs from listed funds which make up pensions and retail investments. Central Banks have bought gold but and this is part of whats fuelling the bubble. Current sentiment is driving the POG higher thats the point! Because gold has very little utility or intrinsic value it is very susceptible to sentiment. The herd and just about every analyst under the sun is predicting higher prices! Surely this is the definition of a bubble! An asset with limited real value being driven by sentiment. No one has any idea how far the POG will go but I would prefer if it stabilised at these levels. It could go higher if we see increasing geo political volatility and escalating trade tariffs but the downsides of that include depression and war and will far outweigh the benefits of a rising POG for holders of MTL.