Member Info for Major4legs

I am heavily invested in another mining stock and was looking for other Gold miners with no debt when I found THX so late to the party and invested at 34p. Less concerned about an entry point and not kidding myself that my view will have any influence on the SP but genuinely concerned that POG is unsustainable

The POG is feeling a little toppy to me - when the herd all gallops towards me I get nervous. It is beginning to feel like a bubble, a few trade deals, some good news on the geo political front and it could change and retrench to the mid $2,000s. Has anyone stress tested MTL if gold is $2k/oz. I am heavily exposed here and see value and good fundamentals but also some risk - mainly that we still have to dig out the stuff at La India but also the threat of lower POG.

JW330 poses an excellent question. Are we in Tulip mania territory? We dont know but the signs are there! All the analysts (who just follow the herd anyway for fear of getting sacked if they say something independent) predict higher POG, retail investors are buying Gold ETFs and mining stocks, central banks have stocked up on Gold. As Buffet says we dig gold up from a hole then put it in another hole and pay people to guard it but it never grows! The point is you dont know you are in a bubble until it bursts. At some point it will. What is fair value for THX at $2300 Gold? 35p or more? Can they still pay a 7% dividend at $2,300? If the answer is yes then I might have a bigger punt here.

We are in charted waters re POG and global geo politics I don’t think anyone has a clue where we are going. Which usually suggests POG will go up but on the back of such a strong rise - who knows. I think a 30% retrench is possible but unlikely. Still worth stress testing mining shares especially if you are betting the farm on them

So what’s stopping it - fear of political interference and jurisprudence in Africa? Or that POG is inflated and might fall 30% on more stable global outlook. Or usual doubts over mining and projected production? Too much risk even if the upside potential is huge?

A lot of emotion here - the current fundamentals don't support further share price gains. For a more balanced account try here https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/more-50-month-going-greatland-070000860.html

Growth has been based on the POG and the POG isn't a one way bet. People assume gold is a hedge against global recession or the collapse of the monetary system . Historically gold wont help you much in the former and if the latter happens you will need a bow and arrow not share certificates! If you want a better long term investment in gold check out MTL. No debt, £100m free cash generation very low market cap and high value proven prospects at $1,100 ASIC.

So for a company with zero debt EV should equal Market Cap + cash or 900USD /700GBP = MTL market cap in Q1 2027 if we don’t dilute and Gold price is 3000 then share price will be 30p +

Yeah on reflection I agree - did he mean $1 billion turnover - in which case the mcap would be $5-10 billion and the share price £1.50 to £3!!!!!!!

That video is impressive - $ 1 billion mcap with $500m free cash flow by 2028 - and paying a dividend! I hadn't considered dividends here.

Given $2,800 gold price, 1.27 xchange rate and the projected $500m cash flow, $1b mcap and number of issued shares, a 1.5p dividend on a 5% yield and share price of 30p is on the cards - thats huge for many of the long term MTL and CNR holders - anyone got any other thoughts.

Where do you get £200 billion from! He sold £2 billion at roughly 1/10th of today’s value ! You are also not including the increase of £21 billion that Brown increased the reserves by buying foreign bonds. Anyway it’s all just an accounting issue given the size of UK cash flows and QE.

Oh not that old chestnut. Brown sold 400 tonnes of Gold to buy foreign currency bonds which increased the liquidity and value of reserves by £21 billion at a time when Gold was both volatile and illiquid and not fit for purpose It was the right decision. It’s not material anyway as showed by subsequent QE. Macroeconomics is often counter intuitive

Who cares about the mill or what CNR were going to do.

ASIC is under $1,200, Gold is $2,900, production in 3-5 years should be $145,000 per year = $246 million net profit per year, normally that equates to a market cap of $2.5 to $3.5 billion - 15 to 23 times bigger than our current market cap! Thats just la India. So either; the resource forecast is wrong, the gold price tumbles or sanctions make it impossible to sell the gold or current holders will make a lot of money and see many multiples of the current share price. Nothing is certain but I for one am quite pleased my CNR shares were converted!

In my AJ Bell SIPP and ISA as well. The end of a frustrating journey - managed to make a few quid at the end by buying more at 15p. Now have 1.4 million MTL shares + cash to come next week which depending on news tomorrow and share price in a week I may use to add more

There are lots of options and given Candy’s political views I might decide to take them. Depends which way Reform now goes. We all have to accept a level of hypocrisy. It’s always a balance. For me it does add another layer of decision making over the financial risk. I still think it’s possible his politics might influence sanctions on Nicaragua so not necessarily all bad.

Like all CNR holders I am disappointed that my gamble hasn’t paid off, luckily I have got my stake back and will put it on MTL. We roll again. If the market believes MTL won’t run out of resources at current cash generating mines before it can bring on La India we will see a big multiple all be it with a Nicaraguan discount. Logic is clear. Worth a punt. I do feel a bit grubby though backing a Candy financed operation.

Sorry not Trump they met Musk - does saving the West include easing Nicaraguan sanctions?

Candy and Farage met with Trump and released this statement

“We had a great meeting with Elon Musk for an hour yesterday. We learned a great deal about the Trump ground game and will have ongoing discussions on other areas.

We only have one more chance left to save the west and we can do great things together.

Our thanks also to President Trump for allowing us to use Mar-a-Lago for this historic meeting. The special relationship is alive and well.”

Voting yes. Condor was too risky for anyone other than MTL who were desperate with gold running out at their mine. We get some cash and get to roll the dice again. PIs should be warned off AIM. The risk of dilution and white collar fraud from dodgy directors makes risk reward here worse than a casino

Yes but Trump doesn’t think like you or me. It’s all transactional

Anyone else seen MTL backer has left the Tories and joined reform as their Treasurer- this opens up possibilities for lobbying Trump on Nicaragua sanctions. He is a mate of Farage who is a mate of Trump