Member Info for LunaNera

Totally agree with you craig.

One has to have ones own thesis and valuation.

It always good to hear opposing views too. Every now and then, there is a nugget of interesting stuff on a BBS. But mostly, it’s just BS.

Best

Having another opportunity buying a share at these prices is an incredible opportunity.

Fear? Naaaa, joy!

For the rabbits out there: the business is not broken. The annual growth was stellar and the car industry is booming FYI. We looked at a Toyota Hilux (need a bigger van when backing up to load more shares) and the wait time is until. March.

Yes, chip shortage is a temporary setback, but that will resolve it nicely.

Oh, and don't bank on H2 and EVs soon. H2 corrodes pipework (ask Robert Zubrin at NASA - he worked with it extensively) and EV ranges are no where near good enough (these are quoted for 45 mph, halve them for motorway speeds).

So all that is still at least 3 years out, if not longer.

The only alternative is a hybrid. And that one requires a catalyst with Rh.

One really has only two options in scenarios like this. Sell or increase position. Doing nothing would be worst.

With only 285m shares in circulation, some manipulation is to be expected.

But then, riding that is just the fun with them small caps.

I don't always get the timing right. But boy is it right this time round.

Run rabbits, run.

Ambush alert! ROFL

Don't ya love it when the market keeps bowling ya these things?

Boom

Hi Velo

Ambush? Moi? Never! XD

The last tranche for SLP is due soon (in auditing, we have our bonuses this time of the year and not earlier like everyone else). So I'm rather happy to 'ambush' SLP soon (at heavily discounted prices).

There is something to be said about unemotional, systematic portfolios. On the other hand, these can do without certain rather poor choices that need adding just for the sake of having a sector covered. Some sectors are best not covered, like energy perhaps?

Either way, I would not be surprised if you would end up with a list similar to mine ;)

I’m sitting on most satisfactory returns on this one. Thanks to two huge panics it allowed many to enter this one at huge discounts.

The only question is when to top up. This one is a great performer for the patient who will let it compound for years to come.

Please don’t. I’d rather hear about opportunities relating to the up and coming global water crisis.

As far as activity here is concerned, there isn’t a lot more to add apart from patience.

Jeff Bezos once interviewed Warren Buffett. He asked:

“Warren, your investment thesis is so simple, and yet so brilliant. Why doesn’t everyone just copy you?”

He answered immediately.

“Because nobody wants to get rich slow”.

Now if anyone wants to present the Rhodium bear case for the next three years, I am all ears.

In the meantime I’m enjoying the many discounts the market lobs into my lap.

But this isn't a tech stock. It is RETAIL.

Or do you believe the THG bots posting on here? Have a look at Glassdoor and you will notice a strange pattern.

Shame, because the potential is there. I would wait for institutionals to push for a management shakeup.

Currently, the owner earnings are abysmal and the company behaves like a sieve. Aquisitions are expensive and take years to materialise. I'd rather they start returning value to shareholders. That will move things.

Velo

It's a nice game. Your chances are still 50/50 unless you want to throw in a hold into the mix ;)

I've had to sit out quite a few great positions who suddenly discounted (welcome to the builders).

Yep. There is a wobble. How is it all progressing short term?

No idea.

How will it be long term? Most likely favourable.

Patience.

I see it more as the overhang from the COVID lockdowns in manufacturing.

Chip shortages and lower production overall, not just chip-related, due to staff shortages and outages. For e.g. we looked at a Toyota Hilux, the wait is until March next year, same with quite a few other models. And it's not just with cars. It's overall with industry (china had quite a bit of a lockdown as well), and without enough products to sell, commerce takes a hit.

So it's temporary. Expect Rh shortages sooner than later and enjoy the weakness for those who are still building positions.

It's across the board for quite some time. I am over the moon about recent weakness with NYSE:BABA - which is high up on my watchlist, for e.g.

It's very hard to see a bear case for Rhodium over the next 2-3 years.

One thing I should not have done is liquidate a position in AMZN which I took in 1997. That was way too early tbh. It thought me that long time frames in great companies are a rather important factor. It may surprise one what good management and leadership can do over time. It's not a regret but I would have done a lot better in the end. But such is the game. As long as one makes more favourable decisions than unfavourable, the outcome is tilted towards a good experience in the long run.

Even at high valuations, great companies with good management will outperform in a 10-20 year timefreame. Even though it may produce some uneasy emotions at the start (high valuation => downside risk).

Best is to make as few decisions as possible.

Hi Velo

Time. Time is the important factor. It truly anihilates all 'ripples'.

Although one might think that valuations and ratios are the determining factors, it's all down to management in the end.

For as long as I have confidence in SLP's management. I will hold. It's as simple as that.

No regrets.

I'd recommend this one for the reading list :)
---
Bull! : A History of the Boom, 1982-1999: What drove the Breakneck Market--and What Every Investor Needs to Know About Financial Cycles
Maggie Mahar

https://www.abebooks.co.uk/Bull-History-Boom-1982-1999-What-drove/22404403877/bd

ic152

What's the interest rate on a mortage nowadays? 1-2%? Can your investments beat that? Say you only own one stock. SLP. And your average is 112p purchase price. In three year times you can cash in at 200p. Which one is the better investment?

That's how I would look at it.

And remember, risk comes from not knowing what you are doing ;)

ic152

I invest money that I don't need for 10 years or so. I live below my means and invest or save any surplus. I'd just save a cash reserve (if you can) and let your investments run. This one will reach £2 a share. I just cannot tell you when. Probably in 1-3 years time. Say this is £2 a share in 3 years time. It's a market-beating return. And that's all I care about. The rest are just the cherry on top of the cake. Sometimes, they turn into a black-forest gateau (see my position with AAPL), but that's never something to be expected.

Hi Velo,

There isn't much to say tbh. You know I don't think much of diversification.

In 2005 I ran the figures on AAPL and noticed that PEG < 1, ROIC > 15%, no debt and they grew their net profits by 20-30% each quarter.

Situations like this don't come along very often.

It was a classic Ben Graham play. What was interesting is how prejudice prevented many from seeing the exceptional situation at hand.

I sold in 2012 because:

1 - I made a large puchase
2 - one key component of my thesis disappeared (management/innovation). Steve Jobs died and the company went nowhere. I would not invest in AAPL today for eg

What did I do during the 2008 crash? Nothing. I may have bought a bit more but I don't remember any more. I definitely didn't sell. I 'sat'

So it pays to wait and let compounding perform it's magic.

I meant leverage is a bad idea.

Thus forum software is awful.

@Chatmandu

Indeed we don't know about someone's circumstances unless disclosed.

All I have to add is that it is a very bad idea.

Patience. Patience is one of the most overlooked traits for successful investing.

I know it will substantially grow over time, but I cannot tell you how much it will be by when.

Some of the old masters at this game expressed it rather succinctly.

“The stock market remains an exceptionally efficient mechanism
for the transfer of wealth from the impatient to the patient.”
— Warren Buffett

“In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.”
? Benjamin Graham

“Investing is where you find a few great companies and then sit on your ass.”
— Charlie Munger

And whilst I am “sitting”, the only consideration is whether current prices warrant an expansion of the position.

Amazing how people are spooked when good companies go on sale.

For what it’s worth, I pointed this out on a different forum when a good company got a haircut to 350p, only to be branded as dishonest by some tormented soul. It’s trading at 850p now. The same with another company back in 2005, where I published my thesis only to be branded as fanboy. Imagine having 50% of your portfolio in AAPL stock at 2005 price levels holding for 12 years.

Patience pays off.

A business like this doesn’t change overnight unless there is an extraordinary global event. And nor will car tech and global logistics.