Member Info for LunaNera

Valuations are a futile business and it highly depends on the buyer for whom the valuation is made.

You can use ratios to compare and estimate, you can use DCF or whatever else (I use a modified version of the Graham formula). Whatever one does, the resulting figure will be a guess.

That's why I prefer to have a margin of safety. Usually, 30-50% -- which incidentally is my guaranteed rate of return when I'm right, and a sensible protection against downside when I'm wrong.

Thus said, if one cannot see that a business that is debt free, has 100+m cash and trades at a P/E around 2 has at least the margin of safety mentioned, well then I am truly perplexed.

Hi Velo,

Numbers... Will confess anything when you torture them long enough ;)

Hi chloechaos

That's precisely what I meant by 'integrity issues'.

Best

ic52

We are in the 80's because Markets are inefficient in the short term. In the long term, they tend to price things correctly.

Or, as Ben Graham once quipped: "In the short term, the (stock) market is a voting machine, in the long term it is a weighing machine".

Patience.

Hydrogen fuel cells use platinum, although other materials are possible nowadays. The engineering challenges are substantial though. The US attempts to build a hydrogen economy since 2003 and it's still not delivered and far into the horizon.

Electric tech is very good and nice, but one needs quite a bit of fossil fuels for the batteries, and there is the recycle problem. On a practical level, the range may not be enough for a lot of commercial use cases and it would require a substantial investment in infrastructure (of which I haven't seen much yet). So it's ok if you live in an urban area and have off street parking and can run a chord to your EV. For others (most) it's not so practical unless there is a change point at every single parking bay.

"Investing is finding a great company, plonk the money down. Then sit on your ass and wait."

Charlie Munger

Priceless!

How long is the chip shortage expected to last and what's the long term outlook?

From a reputable source: https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prAP48247621

Indeed, a lovely opportunity.

Hi ic152

I have no opinion on the company being bought. I do have full confidence in the management though.

Nice to hear you like the book. I loved the read.

Best

A question worth thinking about is: "where will this be in two years time?"

Guess its the 'momentum factor' influencing these 'ratings'. Quite happy with contrarian stocks btw :)

Meanwhile there's been a few bloodbaths in other intersting stocks. Watching the corpses. Maybe there are some scaps left?

"furlough freddies" is indeed a good one. Made me chuckle humbly.

Something is cooking though. Interesting to read about progress on their projects, albeit the language is very restrained.

Don't want to set the expectations too high, don't we? At least, not before the chickens are roosting.

Good management has more legs than a good valuation. Have both? Lucky us.

Hi raxfactor

Precisely. It is this discrepancy that makes for lovely opportunities when the market becomes grossly inefficient.

Happy for the Market to offer me further discounts until the chip shortage is resolved :P

There's a lot more cash waiting for you, Sylvie

And...

We had a top up opportunity around 84p!

4p Divi exceeded my expectations.

In the mid 80s this one is a no-brainer. It should have never gone to that level in a rational world. But since humans make decisions (mostly) emotional, so be it and I took good advantage of it.

Say 132p from there? What's not to like? Nothing at all.

Thank you very much Mr Market.

Stocko shows the estimated EPS as 37.4 for this year. Obviously, this might be a rather optimistic view, given the setback last Q.

Might explain the (irrational) selloff (or not, ha!).

But that would bring it into the 200p range as well.

Monday will be interesting.

Quite happy to take a P/E of 5.262 as ballpark :)

And whats the reason for using a P/E of 4 pls? Really depends what multiple you see fair. A P/E of 4 is cheap in my books. 7-8 more likely, which gets you into the 200p ballpark (with an EPS of 25.3)

Oh, it is on my radar alright. I takes me quite a bit of time before taking a position. I’d like to get to know companies a bit better before I invest….