Member Info for LunaNera

A lot of money is flowing out all across the board, not just SLP.

There is some nervousness around govt support ceasing or reducing and the impact on consumer spending thereof.

Eventually, the chickens come home to roost.

Which will be the best made nests? You judge.

Carpe diem.

The chronic contrarian in me always feels like a kid in a candy shop when things like this happens.

I am always surprised when other's cannot emphasise with my joy.

What's there not to like? Paper losses? Give me a break! Like with gains, losses only happen when they are realised.

One has yet another great opportunity to purchase a share in an extremely well run company (with excellent community relations too) at a severely discounted price. Take it or leave it, but this is not the time to panic but to cheer this extraordinary event.

Markinvestor

It's not a good idea to purchase securities on the advice or opinion of others. It is important to have ones own framework and estimations if intrinsic value.

Frankly, whatever someone's opinion here is, has very little influence on my decisions. So they can happily troll away.

Thus said, thanks to all this I managed to scoop up a meaningful bag of shares for 97.75p thus morning. Never thought I would have that opportunity again. Thank you Mr Market.

What's the problem? Today I backed up the truck and loaded up twice as much than usual. ;)

Never thought I'd get to purchase at this discount again. Ah well, not the first time I've seen this over the years....

FYI - I've got Rh at $19,300 today

Hi Chatmandu,

Isn't that what the lockdowns are for? xD

It's pretty clear that they attitude is what George Orwell aptly pointed out in Animal Farm.

"All animals are equal. But some animals are more equal than others".

Hi stoodio.

Unfortunately, common sense is very uncommon :P

Not sure I'd class SLP as black and white (or binary - a single bit)... But it's pretty clear what all this is about and that's the securities I'm interested in.

Since I don't diversify (I tend to build positons in companies over years), situations with obsious outlooks are important to me. Otherwise, I just park the money in and index tracker until the next, crystal clear situation comes along.

In the meantime, when the market ---for whatever reason--- gets the situation wrong (they often do), I politely say thank you and back up the truck.

Indeed. And let's not mention the carbon footprint of making the batteries in the first place. It's huge!

I do like the propositon though, but to replace ICBs by the quoted timeframe looks ambitious.

Hydrogen looks the best contender here. Alas, no infrastructure (yet)

This is not an unrealistic estimate indeed.

I' ve looked at cars to by and, naturally, one looks at EVS. Here is the catch. The ranges quoted are assuming an average speed of 45MPH. Ok. For city driving only that is a reasonable average. For long distance driving however, this quota nearly halves if you go 60-70 mph average (motorway).

So what did that tell me?

For commerical vehicles or people with long distance needs, elective vehicles are not realistic. The only options here are to stick with combustion engines (more Rh demand), hybrid (more Rh demand) or Hydrogen (no infrastructure yet, more Pt demand -- unless tech changes).

It's hard to see a bear case for Rh in the next 3-5 years.

Hard to say when what will happen. Yes, one can try and exploit cyclical behaviour and try and time entries.

But that's reasonably easy when a security (like SLP) is undervalued and is well run.

"Numbers will confess anything when you torture them long enough" -- WB on the Lehmann collapse

One thing I do know however, is that it is very likely that the price for a share in this business will be higher in 6 months time than it is today. The longer it stays low, the better actually. I welcome bargains.

Carpe Diem.

I'd pass on Helium. Thanks for the plug but this one is a dog.

This price is very hard to resist.

Well, the basket price enjoyed a rather spectacular run. If we agree on that, it is not too exuberant to suggest that downside risk on traded security increased. If you are ok with that view, then it is not a surprise that there is downward pressure once the rosy glasses came off.

So far so good.

However, we are looking at a company which repeatedly demonstrated growth when basket prices where rather modest.

Of course, this past performance does not indicate future direction, but probabilities are that even events like this are well managed and anticipated even (read the few last ARs carefully).

To sum it up, I still see a business that is well run and in a market where, one a 2-3 year horizon, there is a deficit in the product they offer. Whatever sentiment indicates, the economic realities (supply and demand) are not something one can dismiss outright.

Lower production of vehicles in general, is surely disappointing for some expectations. And there are rather good alternatives around. But transport of all sorts is still the life blood of the economy. It will be difficult to transition way from it in a short timeframe.

This uncertainty of events causes market volatility, in that the views on how this may play out in the near future is something that is not established. It is only now that fingers point to the ecological problem of lithium mining, and the recycling of EV batteries at large via more accessible channels to the public at large.

I'm just going to ride this out and take advantage of overselling.

It is impossible to predict the future, but a well run company at a valuation rather favourable to the defensive investor, it is simply a matter of "just riding it out". The only other consideration is to increase ones holdings further or to simply do nothing. We shall all know approaching December when the next AR is due.

Hi ic152

Market participants buy and sell securities for a plethora of reasons, it doesn't necessarly have sinister motivations. More people sell, the price goes down. Maybe some has an expensive divorce? Maybe there is profit taking for their performance review? Maybe the company is doomed and only every found old chewing-gum instead of precious metals? Loads of reasons.

The fundamentals in SLP are intact however. The valuation is very favourable and the business is well run. You can see that it has excellent and sustainable quality metrics and an enviable operating margin.

So why complain when the price goes down? After all, if you wanted to purchase a house worth 500,000k and someone offers it for 400,000k you would welcome that opportunity?

So when a security worth 200p goes on sale for 120p, why do you feel this is a negative?

Its an opportunity. Seize it or not.

Although revenue shows good increases, there is little left over once we come to net profits, or free cash flow. The shareholder returns, such as ROE or ROIC, as well as the operating margins, are in double-digit negative territory.

It is important that a company demonstrates it can return value to shareholders.

Growth by aquisition is a dubious strategy since integration and the amortisation of the purchase price can take years to complete. Is it really best use of funds?

The jury is still out, but there needs to be substantial improvement on the fundamentals should even current valuations remain justified.

Velo,

Nothing wrong with 'trading around a position'. There is always some 'play money' for these sort of things. The percentages are up to you, but I see what you are trying to do.

I am not sure I fully grasp the patterns of SLPs movements. But if you do, there is no harm in trying it out.

Best

...yup. Additionally, there is no clear path as to how decarbonise transport either. EV's have a huge issue with recycling the batteries, and hydrogen requires substantial infrastructure and may not necessarily be green either.

We might need to go along with CBEs for a little longer than anticipated...

Yup. But it's not just about Rh demand is it? SLP is a lot more than that. Proof? look at how well they ran their ops before there was a squeeze and spike in demand for PGMS. Tells me all I needed to know.

Rubbish in, Rubbish out.

Still holds true.