Member Info for LunaNera

Value trap would be a bit of an exaggeration.

What raise my eyebrows was that guidance for this FY is flat (ie same as last year), alas at less enthusiastic---but still very good-- basket prices. That there is a decrease in enthusiasm is understandable.

My question is? What are the future plans? I am not advocating growth at all costs, but is this it? There are projects in the pipeline but it would be useful to hear a little bit more about where the board wants to steer the company going forward.

Hi ic152

BABA = Ali Baba
V. = Visa

Hi ic152

Fretting about share prices on a daily basis isn't very good for one's sanity.

There are really only two options

1 - get out
2 - stay and take advantage of negative sentiment (market inefficiencies)

But then, that's me. In the meantime I am rubbing my hands watching BABA and V. becoming cheaper and cheaper.

Best

Oh, yes please do.

Last lockdown led to to a squeeze in PGM supply. Worked out rather well.

It's virus season. At least in this continent (Europe)

Nervousness, maybe. Anticipation of the past replaying itself? Probably.

Keep your eye on the facts and the practicality of things. When sentiment (we make most of our decisions emotionally) swings unfavourably towards inevitable facts.

Well...

That's the disconnect one can take advantage of, or just wait.

How much infrastructure do we have to support alternative means of keeping the lifeblood of commerce alive (transport)?

Look at it from this lens and one can see that so far not a lot has moved apart from a few more toys for the entitled. Unless we see substantial investment in infrastructure, what are the probabilities now?

Add to this the rather low cap of SLP, swings do not take a lot. Not by institutional standards (read: volatility).

My question to the board would be: Whats the future for SLP? There are capital projects, but they are long in the tooth and I apprecicate the regulatory and capital investment impact. But it would be good to hear about a vision going forwards. Are there any plans to grow? It could do with a bit more of a comittment towards shareholders outlinign their thoughts and strategy. We've waited long enough.

bangrak,

Many thanks for your critical input. Not sure about everyone else, but its definitively a point of view that needs serious consideration.

Best

Our organisation is very involved with the NortH2 project. It is a very good resource if you are interested about reliable information on the role of hydrogen in the decarbonisation plan.

"The decision of the German Federal Constitutional Court on the Climate Change Act will probably also lead to climate-neutral hydrogen becoming even more important. A study by the chemical industry from around two years ago shows that the industry itself, as a customer, views it this way too. The study revealed that complete decarbonisation of this industry through the use of green electricity would require 600TWh of electricity per year, which on its own would double the demand for electricity in Germany. Currently, in Germany solar and wind generate around 200TWh of electricity. From this alone it is evident that we need to import climate-neutral hydrogen: we cannot meet this demand strictly with electricity generated in Germany."

Full interview is on https://www.north2.eu/en/blog-en/in-gesprek-met-prof-dr-ir-christian-kuchen/

Hard to see PGM demand slowing or eroding.

A lot of 'enthusiasm' (irrationality/impracticality) is still riding on EV vehicles.

I do like the tech, but the realities of Lithium mining (huge footprint -- whichever way you look at it), impractical ranges for commercial use and whatnot, are still not in the generally perceived picture.

And that's where the opportunity lies -- pending on your view of future developments.

Fuel cells have the potential of replacing ICEs, but they are (still) extraordinarily difficult to engineer, never mind infrastructure.

So the best bet for most commercial (or most) users, is hybrid.

I let you draw your own conclusions.

Currently, the vote (sentiment) is against this proposition/reality. Once the practical implications set in, that picture shifts.

In the meantime, it's just worth holding SLP for the dividends and cash generation (and shareholder value focus) alone.

Let that sink in.

So, once the picture becomes glaringly clear, where does the valuation go? No idea. But it's most likely better than now.

Taking advantage of people's misjudgement and unfortunate sentiment is what value investing is really about. Do you have the stomach/temper for it?

Patience.

Ranges of EVs are quoted for an average speed at 45mph. If one drives motorway speeds, it nearly halves.

Peugeot has a nice range calculator online.

Dear social media generation.

Life is not an Echo chamber where mediocrity is applauded ad continuum. Not too long ago, in Europe we burned people alive on the stakes whose opinion we disagreed with and who challenged the echo cambers of their time.

Please, lets not return to that and celebrate free thought and critical thinking.

Investing is an activity where a lot if this is quintessential. One always has to consider the bull as well as the bear case. I am always happy and interested to read the thought from both sides. Over the last 30 years it made me a much better ---and richer--- human being (not only financially).

To be clear, it's utterly stupid to bully the few who are brave enough to voice doubts about current status quo and herd thinking.

In this game, it is absolutely necessary and encouraged.

So please, don't be daft and filter messages or petition against shorting. None of this will improve your score here. However, the abscence of critical thought will guarantee only one thing: an even worse performance and abject intellectual poverty.

Please, learn how to be responsible for your decisions and learn from mistakes instead of blaming third parties for your mistakes.

I shall never sign a misguided petition like this.

Hi Nutmeg

You want to keep an eye on the Rhodium price, since that's the catalyst (pun intended) for the share price.

There are some articles about chip shortage lasting into 2023 which might spook some.

Hi marineclark

I am not sure where you get this reference from, but Charlie and Warren are rather outspoken against leverage.

Warren has spoken about the dangers of using leverage.

"But to make money they didn’t have and didn’t need, they risked what they did have and did need. That is foolish. That is just plain foolish. It doesn’t make any difference what your IQ is. If you risk something that is important to you for something that is unimportant to you it just does not make any sense."

“If you’re smart you don’t need leverage; if you’re dumb, it will ruin you.”

"It is crazy in my view to borrow money on securities. It’s insane to risk what you have and need for something you don’t really need… You will not be way happier if you double your net worth."

"Leverage can magnify returns if you are right, but it can also lead to ruin if you are wrong. If you invest smartly you don’t need the leverage to begin with. And if you do use it, watch out below. "

“My partner Charlie says there is only three ways a smart person can go broke: liquor, ladies and leverage,” he said. “Now the truth is — the first two he just added because they started with L — it’s leverage.”

I'm not advoacting it myself

Yep. I actually sold a position that nicely appreciated by 25% (it would be hard pressed to go further) and bought SLP with the entire position at 86.0p. So I'm rather happy with the current run.

But then again, that one was a no-brainer.

To put it in context, cash position in 2020 55.7m, 2021 107m, 1st quarter 2022 130m + ca 50m receivables.

That special Divi will be interesting.

So, who wants to cash-adjust the EV on this one? Do it.

Insanely ridiculous.

EggScotch

Yup. That's what it means.

R I D I C O L O U S

According to Liberum "The company still sits on another c.$50m of trade receivables."

I am now adding ridiculous to the earlier insane.

Jut look at the increase of the cash position this quarter. Insane.

It needs a lot more than a new chairman.

The fundamentals are horrid.

ROC -18%
ROE -47%

Forward P/E 190
EPS -66p

Im not surprised people are shorting this. And yes, the revenue grows. But at what cost and where do the profits go? Negative EPS is never good news.

This will take years and a deep cultural shift to mend.

And a US listing won't favour this one either. SEC terrirotries have the tightest regulations on this planet. US markets don't like loss making, mature businesses either. Rest assured.

Shame. The potential is there but there is no evidence it will be realized in the near future.

I'd remain cautious.

There are a few, but not for the best reasons.

Ratios, valuations etc... are very useful filters. But it's important to look at the business and wanting to be part of that. Phil Fisher has a great body of work on qualitative aspects of businesses. And in the end, that's what matters the most.

Setbacks happen. Environments change.

To navigate capricious waters, one needs a stellar crew on a solid ship. The P/E is just the starting point.

Quality matters as much as does valuation.