Member Info for LunaNera

Hi Manutdbo12

You need to look at the prill split for the palladium impact on SLP.

A supplier suddenly coming off-line, so to speak, is good news for us. We had a similar situation not too long ago which cause the rhodium price to peak in the 30k's.

And our board is not asleep. They listened and provided a satisfactory update as to the prospects of their capital projects and impact on grow. Let that sink in.

Eventually, all this translates into technical indicators as well, and there are plenty of good comments on that as well.

Here is an interesting point of view. Someone once pointed out that in order for all countries to achieve a living standard like the UK (and we are moaning here), our planet would need the resources of 6 more. Now, it doesn't matter how accurate this estimate is, but the overarching conclusion is that thre will be a lot more competition for raw materials as we go along. Some of these will lead to war even.

Does this ring a bell?

I stay long.

Yup.

A long overdue upwards correction ;)

Additionally, it already exceeded the estimates for revenue, profits and eps and I am rather happy with Jaco's plans for growth.

Well, there is the PGM basket price. But that's not the whole story.

Look at the recent broadcast. Jaco shows succinctly the options for growth, the investment required and the expected inpact on delivery.

Bear this in mind. The operations move ahead. This is not a static play.

2.25 + 4.00p divi and SP at 92.5p. Do the math.

JM reports Rh@18,000

These are fine figures indeed ;)

However, estimates are estimates, and house brokers are never neutral (their research doesn't qualify as independent).

Either way, this is now a quality income play. I'm sure growth will come back into the picture as well over time.

Very happy with the shareholder returns to date. No complaints whatsoever.

For those who cannot believe it, here is a very educational video. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QTXyXuqfBLA

Whatever.... look at the shareholders returns. These far superceed price action.

The macro outlook is nothing to be sneered at either.

In the current climate, it's not a bad position.

Patience.

Patirence. Let the clouds blow over.

*If* the developed nations are indeed seeing emissions as threat to stability and prosperity, then there are some macro-economic factors to consider that transcend all considerations to market movements.

It is simply not yet practical to continue with a western economy without ICBs. We don't even know whether we have the infrastructure in place to support the migration to EV, nor do we know whether the supply of raw materials is secured or sufficient.

Never mind the impact of mining the raw materials. What powers that equipment?

And there is the elephant in the room of supplying 'green' electricity as well as recycling the materials.

Without a doubt. EVs are a great piece of equipment and we definitively should reduce emissions and improve air quality overall. I am all for that.

But how practical/realisitic is this right now? Arguably, it's not, or at least, not yet. Unless things drastically change -- which means subsidies and standardisation. These don't happen in that sort of time-frame, esp not globally.

So we either switch to burning ethanol for ICBs (hello Diesel engine), or see legislation demanding more powerful catalytic converters in all existing ICBs (that can be retrofitted).

Then there is h2, but that's still a bit of a pipe-dream as well.

Make your own conclusions, but as far at the path of least resistance is concerned (and a lot of gvts work that way), retrofitting ICB cats is the short term fix.

I could be utterly wrong of course. And if I am, I applaud the international will and engineering excellence that lead us there.

Historically, that would be a first.

Hi Nutmegmilk,

And... did you top-slice at 95?

100k. soz.

Why don't they give a 15 minute window to correct one's posts?

Whoops. It's Liberium. Apologies for the typo in the title.

Looks like the house broker had a change of heart and set the TP to 170p, expecting another windfall divi around 3.75p. Reson given for current rise in SP is increasing demand from OEMs. The auto industry hasn't hit this one yet :)

The same broker also recons (older analyses), that there is no incentive for the auto industry to seek alternatives to cat converters until the Rh price hits 100,000k.

Don't we love for the price to correctly appreciate whilst collecting hansome dividends?

Patience.

Hi Chatmandu

I agree (TM).

In the meantime, it's a great opportunity for S&P beating returns. It's a nice hedge against inflation too.

Best

Not without reason indeed.

Here is a bit of a background story to this

https://www.desy.de/news/news_search/index_eng.html?openDirectAnchor=2208&two_columns=0

If they can pull it off, ist great news for palladium indeed (or for PGMs in general due to their properties).

In the meantime, we might also enjoy a bit of an uptick as inflationary hedge.

Patience

It is a cash rich, debt free and good revenue generating company indeed. There are some questionmarks re future growth potential apart from basket price. But one has to trust the mantra that competent management (which it has) will over time provide increasing value for shareholders.

In the meantime, if last year's dividend yield is anything to go by (~8% incl Special divi), it is becoming an income play whilst we wait how the future direction unravels itself (if there is one).

I do appreciate that the board is not engaging in speculative phantasies about future plans. But I would expect some clearer picture to emerge over the next three years.

HNY and a prosperous one for all.

Hi bangrak, always good to read your thoughts...

Yes, the variant is losing strength and eventually even this will have passed. In the meantime, one can take advantage of market sentiment in various sectors.

De-carbonising energy is no easy feat indeed. Take Germany for example (a country that has led this sort of effort in Europe for quite some time). A recent study revealed that complete decarbonisation of this industry through the use of green electricity would require 600TWh of electricity per year, which on its own would double the demand for electricity in Germany. Currently, in Germany solar and wind generate around 200TWh of electricity.

Never mind infrastructure requirements to deliver electricity at a current suitable for fast-charging (A 13A household plug won't do). There is also the environmental impact of lithium mining and the difficulty in recycling batteries, although this can be overcome with improvements in engineering.

For personal use, EV's do have a place, but for commmerical applications this is simply not practical or mature enough at this point in time. There isn't anything concrete on the horizon either. So the best bet there still has to be hybrid. Or am I missing something?

Meanwhile, fuel cells, although great for platinum producers, have considerable engineering challenges as well. None of this appears mature enuough to indicate that any of the targets in eight years time are realistic.

The UK would certainly require a few more nuclear power stations and a considerable investment in infrastructure to make EVs a reality for the many.

Right now, it's a priviledge of the few.

And no. I don't look at Tesla drivers with envy when they stand helpless in front of a 'bricket' car.

Oh, and given all the brouhaha about inflation rising (who would see that coming with interest rates near zero. Really?) There is a hedge on precious metals precisely against that. At a P/e near 3-4, it's not a bad bet at all.

I wrote that down now.

We see next year.

I would not count on it.

There is still a lot of uncertainty surrounding the global pandemic. Although it doesn't appear as lethal as last 'season' , it is sufficient to spook market participants. I am not particularly worried about these short term price movements, unless I want to take advantage of discounts.

Every year I review my original position on my holdings. I buy every holding for a specific reason, and write that down.

My original position was that the move to EVS won't happen at the projected estimated pace . I am not even sure we will have the necessary infrastructure in place either, never mind the capacity to distribute that much energy. Although we should do our best to lower the emissions, we might only see about 10% of the worlds car pool being EVs in 8 years time.

So the demand for the world's rarest metal, Rh, is expected to increase as regulations tighten. In the meantime, I gratefully accept the value that the board generates in Form of dividends. Nothing wrong with that.

SLP being a low cost producer gives it a competitive edge and it is run competently.

So my original position still hold and I shall continue to hold the stock, welcoming any weakness in short term pricing.

At some stage, reality will kick in. That's when we see the rally. I have no idea when, but I imagine it is before the 8 years are over.

Hi Nutmegmilk,

Did we miss an announcement re a special dividend in February?

Chatmandu

No report ever mentioned appetite for growth by aquisition. It is indeed a terrible strategy in pinciple.

However, there are projects in the pipeline---mentioned. So it might we worth a bit of input about the boards strategic view. Another question would be how much more can the current process be optimised? Or are we looking at providing better feed quality by 'our own diggings'?

Reasonable questions, I would think. There are a lot of mentions but a bit of a clearer statement at some stage wouldn't hurt.