Member Info for LuckyLuciano

..sure spread betting providers have to make money some how.
Catching inexperienced traders...I wonder how many shorters have been cough out, now is going to be volatile for a while to get more punter both ways....
Dangerous game future market and spread betting. Not for me.

There you are 5.458 Million barrels

most likely, but still this is the agenda of Biden to curb inflation...
In the other hand lower inflation should burst consumption, albeit much lower....
Many fragmented and contradicting info out there, I wouldn't be surprise if Oil inventory numbers come out negative for POO, and the price start rising back to 92.

Yes so far is frustrating the sp reaction......
Have to say HBR and oilers of late have been a bit disconnected with inflation, USD and all that. Kind of moving more on inherent news flow and POO of course.....
But was hoping that POO with USDindex dropping a full point, was going to react........
Never mind uptrend intact away to H1....

Hopefully at US market open in 30 minutes a nice push to hbr sp.......we may close above 366.2?

Indexes are flying....blue day coming.

Came out better (lower) than forecast....
Rate rise probably still on the card but USD lower should support POO....and main indexes.
Lets see....US oil inventory out later...

Blame..talks of Ofgem rising the energy cap another two times, to £4200 by January????
IMV this levels are much too high and doesn't reflect the profit upstream companies are making right now.
So what is happening?
It appear that the Gov. is allowing whole sale energy traders, and utilities providers to make very comfortable profits, on the back of inflation and Ukrainian war.
The is no way back, can't see household energy prices to come back no where near levels seen in 2021or before.
What it means is that it would be unthinkable that POO one day may come down to say.... the $60 levels and still providers charge these exorbitant prices, similar scenarios should be for prices at the pump.
In a sense Ofgem and the authorities are already predicting higher prices for longer....much longer.

....most likely.
And Gov. will find the £5bill to give to poorest for energy bill from other sources.
A scrap on WT on the base of national security and energy independence, will still be viewed favourably by the populist out there, that on the other hand condemn huge oil companies profit.

Plebleems I am with you on all you say...
Indeed 365 range is a congested area that has been traded a lot in the past year.
Yesterday uptick is a positive....we really need a close above 366.2 and today may not be the day.
We have widely watched CPI at 13,30, any softer numbers would show inflation easing which may push up the main index together with HBR sp, but at 15,30 comes out Crude Oil Inventory in US which is expected to show a surplus...negative for POO.
Still with H1 out soon possibly this week we are going to move above this 365 range...let see.

https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/russias-transneft-says-it-stopped-pumping-oil-through-ukraine-blames-sanctions-2867883

True is true....apparently.
If it goes on for a while I suspect it will affect oil price. Also lets see what happens IF cpi comes out softer than forecasted

..meanwhile Ukraine is bombing Russian air base in Crimea.
Unfortunately can't see this war ending anytime soon.

....We forecast the spot price of Brent crude oil will average $105 per barrel (b) in 2022 and $95/b in 2023.
https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/
All to be taken with pinch of salt....
But for HBR Brent at $95 for 2023 plus gas prices, means around £3billion profit.
Quick calculation is this year profit at little more than £1billion, plus debit repayment at the rate of $600million per quarter, equal £2 more billions, then there is cash from dividend and shares buy back going against tax levy and any capex...and also 10 more millions booe unhedged for 2023. Very rough calculation but with Brent at $95 in 2023 we will make £3billions. hurrraaa

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9mOJMaNRwe0
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Whats-Really-Happening-With-Gasoline-Demand.html
If you believe in some conspiracy theory....
No so conspiracy if you consider that with Fed rate rise, is very unlikely that US will manage to curb inflation in any meaningful way.
They need lower prices, Biden is trying to lower oil price anyway he can, even going begging to SA for more supply, when the day before was calling the regime murderers...
Very humiliating and revelling how determined is the administration to twinkle with POO.

..have to say this is a bit silly from Ukraine.

Is it today the day we break 365? Poo is up Us Energy Authority out with report at 5pm.... Hbr sp is recovering I have a good feeling....

Yes saw that forecast......
No doubt the winter cold will be a strong psychological factor for POO/GAS. Apparently UK consume double gas volumes in winter compared to summer period.
Can't see gas prices easing any time soon because of winter coming and Russia/Europe supply...
Oil price is soft right now, albeit with a support in the 80s, if this is the average price in a period of apparent recession, any sign of economy expansion and the price will shot to the roof...

....yes is positive.
Bo doubt the Barclays “We calculate the new Energy Profit Levy increases Harbour's cash tax charge by US$2bn over the 3.5 year lifespan of the windfall tax,” analysts at Barclays said in a note.

Is very much arbitrary in that it all depends on POO and what the management will do to mitigate the tax levy.
On this I would be very disappointed if at coming H1, the BoD doesn't explain extensively that are the plans, to alleviate the tax levy.
IMV there is the opportunity to pay zero tax levy this year and possibly half of the $2billion that Barclays forecasted.....again also arbitrary assumption especially for next year onward.

from 2021 financials:
In 2021 we increased our proven and probable (2P) reserves on a working interest basis to 488 mmboe at year-end (2020: 451 mmboe), reflecting a 2P reserves replacement for the year of 157 per cent, more than offsetting 2021 production. This increase was driven by the addition of the Premier portfolio partially offset by a downward revision at the Tolmount field based on the outcome of the development drilling programme. Our 2C resources were 460 mmboe at year-end 2021 and include the addition of the Zama and Tuna fields from the Premier portfolio============

I cant get info for PMO and Cry separately, on what P2 position was at the begin of 2020.
But according to the above was 451 mmboe P2.
In any case I agree, hbr need more reserve and possibly Andaman in Indonesia will be a game chager.

Management here has been very quite, considering all the events taking place and potential for HBR....
Even Timpan-1 discovery was somewhat an anti-climax. possibly trying to keep the sp suppressed to allow for share buy back to end and hopefully after that, they will start the press.....