Member Info for LuckyLuciano

I mean I remember little while ago posts from lth declaring to reduce or sell out for retirement funds..
Some were reducing gradually to get best price possible, but after yesterday unexpected drop, I suspect this exit has accelerated.
Have to say disappointed to be in the red today, as gas price is back up, then again it could all be different comes the week end, if Liz get elected and Gazprom forgets to reopen the gas tap to Europe...
Lots of if...I know.

Soooooooooory

Riiiiiiiight

crawshaw
where is gone the freedom of speech?
We are not in Russia or China you know!!!!

yes for SQZ a bit of downwards pressure from lth wanting out......I wonder how much more they have to sell for retirement lol
450 nice round number to crack. As said b4, Liz election and sqz results should push the sp in the £5. Good to see UK gas price retracing a bit, lets see where it settle, is still more than double serica H1 average realised price.
BP new sp high make me think serica will soon follow

Naaaaa...upomega IMV too pessimistic.
I like to think that if/when Liz will be elected, given the unprecedent further rising gas prices, at budget time, they will dice to print money to set up a temporary fund to help people with energy bill, like they did with furlough during pandemic.

Interesting day for SQZ sp
UK PM election and OPEC+ meeting.
Meanwhile today POO pushing higher despite strong $....Oil looking like want to find the round number of $100/b.
Many might disagree but I still think that if Liz get elected O&G shares will benefit, then we have the Iren nuclear deal approval, balancing out with Opec threatening to cut production.
All in all many variables and very unpredictable for POO/GAS, including an end of Russian war.
Anyone able to correctly predict all these scenarios and compute them to come up, with POO predictions for the next year, is a genius.
And yet imo, looking at how much higher gas price is right now, been so early in the winter high consumption short supply cycle, one has to wonder how much will gas price retrace from here?
Possibly even if is likely it wont make any material change to fundamentals, only an end to Ukrainian war could bring gas prices drastically down.
And even then it would depend on how the war is ending for sanction to be lifted and gas to start to flow again towards Europe. But imo decisions have been made from both sides and there is no way back, for Russia is now more convenient to play with the gas tap on/off to keep prices high and for Europe new supply and arrangements have been made for Russian energy independence.

middleEastMoney I whish I was able to make such precise prediction of the future.....
IMO due to unprecedent times for the energy sector, main indexes and O&G shares have decouple and somehow even become a contrarian bet...
In a way it makes sense, as high oil price and high inflation, means rate rise and recession. But beside all that correlations POO/GAS is what count especially at these high levels..
If there is a brief sell out of HBR shares at opening tomorrow will be due to post result profit taking, not the DOW.
Still there is an unknown event coming down the line next week, been PM election.
I still think that Lizz becoming PM will revitalise O&G shares, but maybe is just a wishful thinking...

NormaStits Please take my post with a great pinch of salt.
It was more designed to stimulate a feed back, from others more experienced on the company finance..
One thing is for sure...just yesterday on Italian channel news they said that, Russia treated to cut completely gas flow to Europe if Europe don't stop to collaborate with Ukraine.
In my opinion the Russian will play with the gas supply as long as they can, as this is their game and their war to keep energy prices as high as possible....and South Arabia/Opec is with them.
It will be a game of opening the tap and closing it again throughout the winter, which will keep prices very high, how high is anyone guess.
When we hade the run in Nickel price recently on the LME, what made it come down was a short squeeze on a big investor...I guess that was a completely different situation from the gas/oil and energy market and trading exchange.
Meaning that prices imo could be allowed to go much higher without affecting any trader participant.
The only people affected by it is us that will have to pay the bills.
On this is my guess that at one point, if not already happening, the governments including UK start to borrow money from banks and print fresh billions to help families.
It will be cheaper and better because banks in this way will make a nice secure profit margin on interest, but at the same time avoid many bad debits and write of coming down the line from people not able to pay energy bills and high inflation issues.
I think the UK budget is due after the elections, if Liz Truss get elected she may just do that...print more and everybody is happy again.
All my speculation based on zero facts.

This subject must have been commented already so many times, that I suppose can not be even considered anymore an attempt to ramp up the share.
In any case, and because price of gas is in constant dramatic change (I mean up 3 fold from 200p/T in the last month), I have come up with a rough estimate of 2022 revenue before hedgin, with H2 Therm averaging 377p and oil $105.
Revenue could be £1.3 billions, for net profit is anyone guess really...
Shall we say £500mil?? Will the tax levy be still in place, will it be higher or last longer....
But if we strip the current market cap of £1.2 billions from a very possible cash end of the year of £700 mil, this leaves a company valued at £500 million that just made £500 millions in profit.
Half of that profit for 2023 would still make a PE of 2.
Unless some catastrophic event occurs, I think is worth hold SQZ till H1 results, waiting for some guidance on revenue/profit at current gas price, and maybe with a sp uplift from Lizz becoming PM.....if that will occur that is.

Sure upomega
I do understand you point and do share the thought and explanation of some lth, on why they have sold/reduced etc...and why the feel the need to post it.
It is a bit like saying sorry folks I have to sell some now, but in the end its me that tuck the risk to hold for so long this share.
Some are personal reasons and it all make very much sense to me, I only wish to have the skill to hold for so long, to reap the rewards.
Is when people sell and then say negatives about the share that I don't get....
This regardless if there is some truth or not about what they say...
My last reply and apologies if been misunderstood.

Sorry to say but on this point I think ripley94
comes out cleaner and smoother than many here.....
Don't get me wrong pl....is utterly boring having to read 65 posts about one trading history, surely this board is about SQZ and not a personal ripley94's Facebook page, but hey...anyone is free to say what likes, is up to us to chose what we read right?
I have been accused to be a ramper and deramper....but I just wanted to make the point that yes, I do ramp up a share I am invested in, but when I sell, you won't read posts from me saying why I sold, because I don't feel the need to justify why I have sold and because it wouldn't be fair, for the people in the board still invested in the share.
But I do understand the some time we all need someone to pack our shoulders and say "well done".
Surely don't expect this to come from the stupid people, still invested in the share you have just sold....
Does it make sense now?

Thanks...I was using £ because on below it is quoted in £.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
By the way just making new high at 647p
Therefore 647p x 60 therms=boe making £ 388.
Anyhow seriously? 28k boe less the oil bit% less hedging at £388?
No wonder the sp keeps creeping up and any lows get bought.

Question Pl. If we assume that a Therm is 100 Qfeet and a boe is 60 Therm or 6000 Qfeet. At 600p therm is a beq sold for £ 360?

Thank NewKOTB... I am trying my best. I like to think that with my ramping, I am contributing a little on the knowledge base, towards making a sound investment decision for other.... I you don't like my posts though, you can always read "ripley 94" posts 65 and counting... Wow

Indeed BLK reducing and JPM adding
I interpret the BLK reducing just before SQZ price reaching all time high resistance, as a technical profit taking not based on fundamentals.
UK gas price just reached 600 yesterday, an all time higher. The gas price chart is making higher highs with no intention to retrace all the way back to the H1 levels.
Gas price is now more than double of what SQZ was selling for in first half.
Recent gas price rise has been more a gradual rise, compared to recent two spikes up with inevitable strong retrace,
imv a strong support base is forming at much higher levels than H1 and it couldn't be different, considering that we are approaching winter...
Maybe too soon too fast but is hard to see a way back.
A bit of nervousness due to Iran nuclear deal, but hopeful soon we may have Liz as PM, and the long awaited SQZ results with forward guidance for H2 at double gas prices...wow
Is not unthinkable that by year end at this gas prices levels or even lower, SQZ share price will be double of today price.
Every small sp daily retrace is been bough by the market, possibly in absence of any major event, this will carry on till H1 results....
DYOR...just my opinion

I suppose what I am trying to say is.........Yes well done you sold and made a profit, but please keep the reasons why you sold for yourself..
Otherwise they could be interpreted as deramping, and it wouldn't look good on you....

Anything to say to those people that felt the need to tell the world, they have now sold because ..... bla abla bla bla bla?
I don't know folks! Liz may be going to power soon, results coming shortly (look what happened to HBR)
Gas prices at all time high.
By end of the year likely SQZ with £700millions in cash for a market cap now 1.5 that amount.
Sure a profit is a profit but by telling everybody you sold what do you expect? A pack on your shoulder?
Or maybe next are you going to invite everybody to the pub for a round, to celebrate the profit?
Naaaaaaaaaa I don't think so....

Not sure what it means, are they saying that Unrealised gains from Hedging will be recognised to be offset against the Tax Levy?===================================================
Had the EPL been fully enacted before 30 June 2022, these half-year results would have included the recognition of an estimated additional one-off non-cash net deferred tax asset of $1.0 billion in respect of the EPL through to the end of 2025. The anticipated additional net deferred tax asset arises mainly due to an increase in the deferred tax asset associated with unrealised derivative balances of $1.6 billion, offset by an increase in deferred tax liabilities associated with the carrying value of oil and gas assets within fixed assets of $0.6 billion. The deferred tax asset associated with the unrealised derivative balances held at 30 June 2022 represents the estimated reduction in EPL liability that could arise if the fair value loss on those derivatives crystalised and reduced taxable profits subject to EPL in the periods to 31 December 2025.
The amounts disclosed above are provisional and the overall current and deferred tax impact for the year will be included in the full-year result====================================================

.....so this might be the master plan.
I was reading on "the guardian" that Scottish Power Chief proposes capping energy cost at £2000 per year.
The difference between cap and free market prices, will be payed by a special emergency fund, created with money lent from banks to UK Gov.
This is just a proposal where everybody is a winner....
Although I hate banks...I would even be ok with this all depending on at what rate the Gov. has to pay back this debit.
IMV this is a very likely scenario, even a very much needed one, considering that there will be huge amount of bad debits for banks to write of, if people have to borrow to keep the house warm.
In the end for banks is better to lend to Gov. than to private citizens and for the system unfortunately, is better if the financial system keeps working....