Member Info for LuckyLuciano

Maybe just a wishful thinking but with Piedmont committed to buy 50% of production at prevailing market price and sharing 50% of total production costs, does it means that Piedmont will share also 50% of the costs for ALL 50% share of production?
So worst case scenario ALL will make little or no profit on 50% of production, but will pay only half of production costs on its 50%..?

Two benefit coming from Piedmont deals are:
1. by producing double the amount of ALL (50%) share, production costs per unit are lower, so All share of cost for its 50% is lower.
2.With funding already in place and flexibility in timing of execution, now ALL is able to increase resources and come up with a revised PFS which potentially might substantially increase production for ALL 50% share entitlement.

So lets say in the end ALL is entitled to sell 180k/t of 6% Spud at $5000/t
With such low costs net profit will come at more than 50% revenue....you do the maths.

Patience requited....
This company is still under the radar of many investors, what opportunity been able to buy a Lithium project (77% of it) at £7.5 millions, and much lower than its Issue price.
Coming assay results from drilling should confirm high lithium grades, similar to LEO Lithium (AUX) project in same geological trend....
Also very thick drilling intersection up to 20 meters, meaning lost of lithium down there....
Multiples of current price in the making.

...better not mate.

It seems to me many here are focusing on the cup been half empty, rather than half full.
Piedmont deal is old story, the market has already priced in or out this.
Catalyst are coming from revised reserve/resources and revised production rate all already announced in lates presentation.
As thing stand some 125k/t (50%) for All at $2000 profit is current ALL market cap, PE of 1, when spodumene is sold for 7/8000$/t

Summarising the deal with Pidmont
I interpret that Pied will finance and that a stake on ALL up to DFS, when and investment decision has to be made for building the mine...
the fact that Piedmont is getting shares in All at any of these stages is already a payback from ALL, which should allow All more control and freedom on the operation and timing of the mine.
I am not so sure but if Piedmont has the freedom to decide on final investment for mine project, or forfeit the initial investment, isn't not also ALL free to interrupt collaboration with Piedmont if they don't respect the terms and conditions?
And what about if All find a better deal leading to production...

I my opinion though ALL will be ready for production much before Piedment will be ready with refining project. This is not an issue though because if Pied is not ready to take our production we can always sell it someone else, there will be always some entity ready to buy our lithium at market price....
Then again if this is the case I am not sure if Piedmont would be able to stockpile the Lithium for when refining project is ready...again this is my perception. One think I wouldn't like to happen is having to wait on our project, for Piedmnot to build their refinery.......The fact that we are operators and have control of the mine possibly means that if there are issues with Piedmont, we can always look for other form of financing and go ahead with mine, without having to wait for them, but I am not sure about that....
Our project is too compelling and finding finances is not an issue, this is why Piedmnot has moved in earlier than moany other waiting and scrambling to find a similar opportunity.
Looking forward for a updated revise/increase production mining project, which capex cost shouldn't change much the original budget.

WOW had no idea that Neil Herbert was in Prem as well...
One more reason that align with my intuitions and confirm that ALL is/will be a winner and Prem is a dodgy proposition.
Also more connections between All and Firering all pointing gin the right direction....

I am with you on all you say GaiasKidney.
But most of all what kept me out of PREM was when AIUI came up with the cash and funded PREM for resource definition and DFS , and PREM with George Roach initiative, decided to spend the money in a pilot plan.
That was not AIUI initial intention, possibly they wanted a proper large scale mining project, but once Prem got the cash they did what they wanted, and I suppose now AIUI have to platy along this game because there is not way out.
The way the news flow printing press is overworking 24/7 at Prem looks to be a pump and damp situation, or possibly an attempt to issue shares at maximum price possible somewhere down the line, sooner than later.
Thing is even with all the cash of this world, the lithium deposit they have imo is not attractive and indeed the geographical location as well.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-62825830
Didn't know that battery swap EV. is becoming a trend...but it makes sense actually.
So for every EV car in the future they may need to build 2 Lithium battery not 1, sound good to me.
Also Chinese subsidy for EV car is ending in 2023, that will be something to watch....Is also true that some subsidy for EV are just starting elsewhere in the world, so it may balance out.

My apologies is this is not PREM board

I am not a Twitter person, even less now that Musk is in charge.....but via some link posted on this board, I cam across all the noise going on right now on Prem ....
IMO lost of FOMA is happening there....just wondering how are they going to get the ore mineralization some 200 meters down below ground and only few meter tick....
Strip ratio must be huge and given the relative small production rate, i wonder how long is going to be the payback timing. I am suspicious of the fact that pilot plant construction has started but DFS is not ready yet....Very difficult company to valuate on fundamentals...

bankrupty
if you allow me to point out....you should be more active in managing you investments.
5 years without looking or acting on your investment is admirable....not me though
I have the opposite problem, I whish I was more relaxed like you on my investments, would have made million by now.....maybe I have to stop drinking coffee. Anyhow
Now I do see where your interpretation of lithium uk stock been down when Lithium price is up, comes from....Pl don't mind me to say but you are missing the micro news specific to the stock and the inevitable trading investor reactions.
Especially in small cap companies this is a factor that often make the sp going in the opposite direct on main trend for a while...Add to that lack of revenue for the UK companies you mentioned and these companies sp become more news/sentiment driven than commodity price trend driven, eventually they will catch up and stay there, when fundamentals will become more a factor/reality than news and sentiments.
Macro economic becoming a liquidity problem could happen, but just recently UK proved that the money printing press is always ready to come out in rescue. Beside right now the market is ready to position itself for the Fed. pivot rate rise, when they will easy tightening, to jump in the stock market and possibly start a new bull run..
will be bouncy and slow but sone or later inflation will be under control imo...
But lithium is having a trend on its own to some extent, kind of unaware of war, covid and inflation.
The main factor is supply demand dynamic here and on this subject i am posting a link with a different view from last Goldmans "sucks" latest report that was predicting lithium price to come down right now...
When I read GS report I was invested in Sigma Lithium and down 20%, that read prompt me to sell for then see Sig going up almost 200%, believe me is a awful feeling...
One tend to respect and listen to reputable names like GS....never again.
The below sound a bit more realistic even if a bit dated.
Bye L
https://www.benchmarkminerals.com/membership/what-is-driving-lithium-prices-in-2022-and-beyond/

Was just wondering that my self.....this drop smells of North Eigg but is just my opinion, guess work.
Still with energy prices under pressure, Ruchi Sunak back in power and the risk of North Eigg gone wrong , no wonder this is tanking.

bankrupty
Nice honest assessment of current situation.
I am in the same situation, realising that technical, fundamentals, balance sheets and profits are often less important that, personal attitude to risk and investment emotions.
IMO for Lithium stocks the macro trend factor, comes mainly from lithium price rather than geopolitics and world economic trends.
Indeed prices of lithium shares have been going up against interest rate rise and the war in Ukraine.
So even if we were to see a further drop on main indexes it doesn't necessarily mean that Lithium stocks will drop...
Saying that Lithium prices can not keep going up for ever, one thing to look is how much it will retrace when it will happen.
I am trying to educate my self on lithium price trend as much as possible, without paying too much attention to the Fed. rate rise and economic macros, although they do have some kind of effect on the sector, mainly with China, Covid and how much the CCP is willing to prop-up the and support the Chinese economy.
I am a bit weary of lithium price keeping going up and I don't like it, I remember what happened with Nickel price not long ago. Thing is Lithium is not traded much a future on LME or other exchange (fortunately) so its price move more due to real fundamentals rather than speculations.
This make lithium price less volatile and reflects more the supply/demand dynamics...finger crossed on this.
I decided to be quite heavily invested in Atlantic Lithium, because at this price I see few factors coming together on the fundamentals and technical...
Indeed I have recently averaged up from 32p because imo 30p is a strong support level, if Lithium price remain at these levels...I know I have made a great investment and this is why I have committed quite a lot on this (for my pockets ..)
It is all to be see if after 50% rise I will have the balls to not sell, and hold for the big price.
Another positive development is the recent interview with Neil Herbert, hinting at the fact that resources could soon double and development to mine could be speed up with increased production and no need for a DFS.
And of course been near to port, relatively high grade, low costs and one of the safest African country for mining are all positives too.
On the financing I see it as a win/win situations so not too worry if Piedmont will bring the money on the table or not.
Indeed just imagine a feasibility study revised to 400k Spodumene production with $120 million needed for development.....who needs Piedmont with fundamentals like this?
I am not trying to convince anyone here to buy now at this levels in stead of waiting for a retrace.
What i see is that Lithium stock for the last year or so, in general have hardly retrace at all and the fundamentals for this commodity are still fantastic. For ALL with financing in place I suppose any retrace will be bought, this is why I think 30p is support. AIMO..

yes I read few posts on Hotcopper and didn't sensed any negatives, for the fact that our project is not in Aus.
Yesterday for Aus Lithium miners was a bad red day, meanwhile lithium prices keep pushing up, must be due to typical Friday sell off....

Anyone following ALL in AUS?
https://hotcopper.com.au/asx/a11/discussion/

Out of boredom I was looking at other Piedmont partner Sayona Mining currently valued at £1.3 billions.
They have I think some 75% of the Quebec North American Lithium' Authier projects, and Piedmont the remaining 25%, coming in to production begin of q1/23.
Sayona revised DFS of 2019 was to produce 114,116 tonnes (6% Li2O).
https://sayonamining.com.au/wp/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/SYA_ASX-Announ_20191111_Revised-Authier-DFS.pdf
But from Piedmont and other sources the offtake agreement is for almost double that.
https://sayonamining.com.au/wp/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/SYA_ASX-Announ_20191111_Revised-Authier-DFS.pdf
https://www.mining-technology.com/projects/north-american-lithium-project-quebec-canada/
https://piedmontlithium.com/projects/quebec-projects/
Indeed on the 23 May 2022 another PFS came out
https://sayonamining.com.au/wp/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/SYA_NAL-PFS_23-May-22.pdf
This possibly proves that production can start with just a PFS

Sayona has many other project as exploration licenses with great potential, but all at chip and sampling stage...

Mind you we will produce this staff at this Chinese price or maybe higher if you look at Aussie markets...
https://www.metal.com/Lithium/201906260003

I think the market is realising that the Lithium sector is an ever changing investment proposition.
With such a difference between cost of production and selling prices and such a strong fundamentals meant to last for years to come, we are witnessing a rewriting of business models and mining rules...
No surprise that many want to be mining companies, are planning to build pilot plants, for a quick cash flow opportunity, which imo is a waste of time and money, considering the low capex needed for a popper mining project plan.
ALL strengths is in been fully funded and hard rock high grade, no needing a DFS is clearly a possibility, would be nice to have confirmation of this, maybe they can produce something like an engineering scope study for higher production plant from current PFS....