Member Info for LuckyLuciano

Is all about sentiments right now and the prevalent one is fear...
Volumes have dried up everywhere and in this scenarios even tiny sells bring down prices.
These can be opportunities to invest, but one has to be careful about which sector to go for.
IMO a good approach is to look at the PE or NWV.
SQZ is doing very well on NWV, £272millions at 2021 plus all the cash made in 2022 is more or less the current share price.
The fact is that energy prices have spiked so high so soon, that now sentiments are changing from greed to fear.
Indeed this is what is making current sp.
I read that if Putin would stop completely gas supply, Germany reserves would deplete to zero in 2.5 months.
I read that LNG supply was already tight before the invasion of Ukraine.
On thing is for sure and that is Putin tactics to play with the gas tap has backfired.
He is now holding on to the last drop of gas flowing trough Ukraine, not sure what to do, to close or not to close.
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https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/no-stream-eu-gas-markets-brace-for-price-surge-after-latest-russia-gas-cut-2885565
Klaus Mueller, president of Germany's Federal Network Agency energy regulator, said in August that even if Germany's gas stores were 100% full, they would be empty in 2-1/2 months if Russian gas flows were halted completely.
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Assuming that the above estimate was made in August, if that was before recent closure of NS1, comes winter Europe gas storage situation will deteriorate.
For SQZ though 450p is very much resistance and possibly 350/450 channel is established.
All IMO

Hi sasa43
I am looking at HBR shares buy back plan and it seem they are buying more and more shares as price get more and more expensive, one legitimate comment should be WTF!
Surely some £600/700 millions cash should generate a decent income return for shareholders, while biting some time for an acquisition..
The truth of the matter is that this BoD has already made so much money with SQZ, that they might have become lazy and unmotivated.
Lets ear what they say about future plans comes the 27th. The failed attempted reverse acquisition of KIST, IMO was a good sign that there is a will there, to create shareholder value but not at all costs.
Indeed one would be excused at current energy focused asset prices , if is going to just sit on the cash pile and do nothing.
Fist and foremost focus right now should be on mitigating WTL and make sure that North Eigg completes lol.

BoD strategy here has to be going in only 2 or 3 possible directions.
Either waiting for license round to use the cash pile for new explorations (risky approach)
or waiting for acquisition and cheaper price (wiser but more unlikely)
Third option been returning huge amount of cash to shareholders, they could be giving £1 per share tomorrow and still operations and cash flow wouldn't be affected (impossible scenario)
But the most likely decision from BoD will be to do like many companies are doing right now, shares buy back..

wow 200p swing in 5 days.
In the last year any price swing has retraced back to 160ish, but interesting after the Putin madness, the price swing has widened from 800 to 114 for example at the begin of the conflict.
It look like fundamentals have been replaced by sentiments of late, with consequent erratic market behaviour.
For example when recently Gazprom close completely NS1 gas tap, price has carried on falling.
In this environment I wonder if is anymore possible to read some technical on gas price based on fundamentals and market dynamics?

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/eu-propose-crisis-measures-curb-energy-price-spike-2022-09-14/
So what a joke...They talk about decoupling renewable sourced electricity from gas, by setting the cap at 180 Euros x MWh.
For start is likely that access revenue above 180 E won't be enough to pay not even for my personal electricity bill.
Secondly by setting a cap so high, unless they stop completely any subsidies for renewable, it is still bonanza profits for reenable electricity generator and though time for upstream O&G.
Anyhow looks like is 33% for Kist.

..still £70millions drop for a extra cost of £3 million incurred?!
first 5 trading minutes a drop to 360ish with tiny volume.
The mm is laughing.

Maverick7
is most likely what you are saying, though the Europeans have been talking about heavy Tax levy on Oilers for a while now.
Yet current SQZ sp suppression is surely down to LTH selling.
Notice in absence of top slicers how fast sp when from 350 to 390ish...there must be a huge order sell at 390.

meanwhile Kist down 10%....will this hold?
lots of top slicers going on probably LTH, the same people that say, hooo Serica lots of potential going forward....meantime they sell.

....moreover they clearly stated that interim dividends will be 6p...so no need to rise false expectation with 9p dreaming..

Yes what about if SQZ buys Chariot....

Again lost in translation...
The £170 billion mentioned was about this year assumed total profit from Oil companies......
This amount change many times depending which Labour clown is speaking......

https://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chart
further more find above possible price action for WTI (I know SQZ sells gas so it shouldn't be taken negative)
WTI price just re-entered descending channel looking for second support (red dotted line) also Fib 0.786.
It will likely not happen because I am expecting Putin soon to completely stop any energy supply to Europe, including possible OPEC actions, but as mentioned before POO of late as been reacting strangely to macro news...we will see.
If that happens then POO may be looking for the $60ish strong support level.

700% return in last 2 years not exactly a loss and sorry if I can't be bothered to read all your posts.
But back to oil price
I made a kind of pertinent question at the begin of this tread, been why POO/GAS is going down when Putin just announced that will be stopping supply gas/oil and coal to Europe? Odd.
All I got back is "you can't predict price of energy"
I am not pretending to do that, just trying to rise a very pertinent fact of current market, but apparently people are so busy to ramp up their investment, that the best answer you can get is that....is impossible to talk about this, please shut up.
The fact is that UK gas price is lower than when Putin/Gazprom said we are not reopening the gas tap to Europe, lower than since Liz become PM with pledge to no more new tax levy for O&G.
You say you cant predict energy prices, but is it not the very reason you are invested in this company? High energy price.
Or are you just investing based on fate and luck?
Let see IF gas or oil price keep falling, how much higher the sp will go.
My initial post was based on the fact that if a while ago Oiler companies sp was reacting ditto to energy price rise or fall, right now I see a disconnect from microevents and between share price and energy prices.
This normally occurs when something got to give and apparently it is not the best moment to trade long terms....
Your advises on investing long terms and cutting out the noise is all very true and thank you, but this is in normal times.
If you call this normal times or if you have the balls to invest long terms right now....hey you just get my admiration and respect.

Right and what about Thg, Krs, Clon......Haaaa let me stop there please.

Thank you for advises.
I know they are genuine even if biased because you are invested in SQZ, but it couldn't be different.....
We all have our investing strategies and we all make sometime mistakes, the game is to get it right more than wrong.
I don't agree with the statement that short terms gain is due to luck, because if one manage to make long term returns with short term gains, must be doing something right and not just be lucky.
Possibly my problem for long term holding is that I do too much research and sometime come across contradicting information, that change my investment decisions.
Above all though a good investment decision, starts when one has the right feeling of the general market sentiments and trend, never fight the market.
Back to the energy space I am not excluding reinvesting in SQZ , but looking at the price action in POO/energy and single shares for that matter, right now is anyone guess, especially after meteoritic rise of energy prices and current government measure to tackle this.
I am not bitter crawshaw (or whatever you mean with that) is just that I like to feel free to speak my mind, who know maybe someone could pick up something useful from what I say, after all I have been reading about economy, finance and politics every day for 30 years.
I get that is just by remaining invested long terms that one gets the most returns, but I suppose it as to do also with at what price level one enter the investment.
Right now and with current macro events, including gov. interference I personally don't see O&G companies as long time investments, but trading opportunities.

Any prediction for Oil price going forward, gas also is looking down.....
Why?
Didn't putin closed the tap indefinitely?
Crawshaw care to comment with your extensive knowledge?

Is people like you that make me bizzare.
...going round telling people what they should do or not do with their money?
How you dare telling me, what I should say or not say on this boar?
How you dare telling me what kind of investment style I should adopt?
I do and say what I f@ck like to do and say.
You come here playing the super hero protector of humanity and make me look like the villain?
When your contribution on SQZ knowledge base has been neat zero?
I don't mind your psychopathological attention seeker issues, but don't try to patronise me as well, with your advises on what I should and should not do.
I do and say what I like...watch this space

Thank you for your advise mate
I know is not genuine interest of yours on my investments, but just hoping for someone to tick up your post, but hey...!
What is it? Difficult childhood?
Did you suffer a lot having parent never appreciating you, or complimenting you that day, when you made that little paper boat at the age of 5?
Hooo poor thing I am sorry.
For what it counts for me you are the best crawshaw,
amazing and fantastic.....I love you.

crawshaw
bought with some expectation on news flow and events that never materialised, had to sell because been risk adverse can take been invested at a loss, sorry.
Before anyone starting with me ramping and deramping a share, as it suite me, please note that I am not commenting specific of SQZ (which I find still undervalued) my worries are more about political developments and the market in general.
Moreover as mentioned I had an investment plan that didn't pan out...hence getting out.
What is left is SQZ results some 3 weeks away, but with current volatility who know where the sp will be in 3 weeks time, meanwhile POO is tanking...but again could reverse trend anytime.
Will monitor the sp for a lower entry if that happens...

The way is moving could be 10%up one day and down the next without apparent reasons....
Will stay away at least till next week to see what effect Friday European Union meeting on energy price, will do to the market.
Is safe to say thought that all fundamentals and huge profit narrative is out of the window....this has become a trading share. Too much volatility and political interference out there for any commitment possibly on any share, right now.