SP4 Nov 2022 09:07
Good start of the day, things are settling down after fantastic news of assay results with highest lithium grade to date....
There may be few weeks of calm here and some bored traders may sell out, but on the other hand there is a short term rebound on lithium share prices on the AUX market started from yesterday, which should support ALL.
As mentioned a close today above 46.80 would clear out recent short term resistance opening the way to next target at 66.60 day close and all time day higher..
More drill results assay to come, imo will push ALL sp slowly up to 66.60 resistance for then go past that with new upgraded resource that should be in the 50 million tones....
I have been trading shares for 30 years, made a return of 800% in 2020/21 on biopharmaceuticals and yet have to concur with what I read in books and analyses, that the maximum return on investments is to buy and hold for the big price.
So its clear that trading is not trying to make higher profit, but purely for the fun and excitement that one has when gets it right....Is a tricky business every time to read correctly market sentiments, but surely make one feel clever when it happens.
Then there is the main underlining trend, macros and all that...try to trade against the main index and see what happens lol
In the pandemic when I was investing in biopharma's I would have sp opening 70% higher on the day, or prices that would more than double in 2/3 day time, I have no regrets having traded those shares in stead of holding them, after all the general market was one of doom and gloom, and yet little I knew that Novavax sp for example would go from $17 to $330 or Inovio from $3 to $33..all in the space of less than 1 year.
Unless lithium prices collapse, I see small lithium mining companies going trough the same cycle of rerating like the big Australian companies out there.
Allkem for example is comfortable trading at a PE of 20, Albermarle PE is even much higher....
I have refrained from doing the maths on this board (I do do it secretly) on what should be the sp of ALL in 18 moths time with a production entitlement of say...180k/t and a PE of 10....possibly is anyone guess. But it seems that people out there want more and more EV so lithium prices will likely to be much higher that one coming from ALL PFS.
With Sigma lithium I remember their PFS was revised again and again during its sp rise...they not only increased resources but also the economic study, by rising substantially the selling price of Spudomene, even if they too have some take off agreement in place.
So yes trading is fun but remember if you want to make the most of your investment, is buy and hold.
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