Member Info for LuckyLuciano

Indeed but there is a difference between "no more" and no extra or additional windful tax. lol

for clarity here current current tax levy at 25% still applies, but no new taxes as suggested by Labour...

We must be looking at different datasets as it came close on 15th but not close enough
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No we are talking about the same gap on the 15th yes gap was not closed, but lower price was below higher price on the 11th...but I don't think that count.
Thing is that seemed to me a Continuation gap, which I read don't necessary get closed....

Well lets recap where we stand and what will be announced tomorrow and beyond also from Europeans...
If a price cap will be announced, that will mean free gas market still working and gas price in access of cap level, will be payed by governments. (This should be good for Oilers producers and for household bills)
Most likely tomorrow Liz will announce more money for anyone to pay energy bills....anything else??
To set a price cap for energy and pretend that suppliers stick to that price, is not going to work, because there will always be someone ready to buy at higher price, if the market say soo...
Then we have speculator and traders on energy prices, here imv it get a bit more worrisome for Oilers.
If Europe...and that is a big IF, intervene on Dutch trading house/hub where TTF Gas is traded it could be a scenario like Chinese Communist party actions on Iron ore, coal and other commodities, where they successfully managed to curb the prices lower.
Another area where we will surely see some changes is the separation between renewable prices and gas prices. Every country is talking about it and for me is a good thig and about time it happened...
Renewable energy these days is much cheaper, but the effect this will have on gas price and household bills is anyone guess. It all depend what Gov. actions will be, for start thought Liz said she will scrap Gov. grant to renewables and spend it on energy bills. Let see what happens but hopefully no more taxes coming NS oilers way.

..is it because low 312.5 and high 313.5 prices overlap, even if no time frame close at that prices?

Is it support 350 or looking to fill gap at 312/313 ?

Europe among other measures is contemplating intervention in Duch/Europena gas trading market, to stop speculations on price.
Indeed imo traders speculations and volatility is a bigger problem than, Putin playing with the gas tap...
All will be revealed...interesting times ahead, but for now it looks a correction is still in play.
I mean not even recent OPEC+ 100k production cut has helped POO....

Many lth have already declared reducing or out completely.....
For sure upside from here must be unappealing, compare holding from long time backwards, then it all depend overall profits and if one has been trading this or pure holding the share since below 10p.
I am not the right person for any advise in this area, as I can hold my breath longer than holding a share. I am very very risk aversion kind of investor and probably shouldn't be here at all, still one way or another managed to make some profit trough the years, but have to admit lost many trains that could have been life changing opportunities.
One thing I like to say though, if I was invested from penny levels I would be out of SQZ for a while by now.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m001bv5w
This program gives a good feeling of what is the current situation with high energy prices.
People (including politicians) paying the bills are really pi@@@sed off about O&G companies, but fail to make a distinction between Upstream and Integrated companies and also all the many participant to this profit bonanza, including energy traders, providers and the renewable sector. Let see what Liz will come up with...I doubt she will change the tax levy.

First I have heard or read re offsetting hedging losses. Not sure would work tbh as they are a mtm loss until crystallised although I guess you could offset crystallised losses but then what about gains? Do you take them off in future years?
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This because our great politicians that have studied in the best university of the world but are not able to use their brain properly.
If in stead of setting a new tax like the levy, based on a time frame 2025....they would have introduce a tax based on BOE price, where the tax is applied above a set price per barrel, then the hedging gain or loss issue would have bee resolved.
A loss on hedging would have been offset against the new tax, and a gain on hedging or higher price realised above a set BOE price would have been taxed. Moreover it could have been a tax valid also for the future and adjusted from time to time depending on profitability of O&G companies.
Someone on this board when I posted a similar idea said that this would distort the free oil market, well what about a gas price cap then?
Is it not worst regarding distorting the market? Beside the fact that it will not work....

Right this is an extract from HBR results, it mention the word "derivative" and honestly i am not sure it refers to Hedging..
Is anyone there able to decipher what this all means regarding the tax levy?
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On 26 May 2022, the UK Government announced the introduction of an Energy Profits Levy ('EPL') on the profits earned from the production of oil and gas in the UK with effect from that date. The EPL enabling legislation, the Energy (Oil and Gas) Profits Levy Act 2022, was substantively enacted on 11 July 2022. The EPL is charged at the rate of 25 per cent on taxable profits in addition to ring fence corporation tax of 30 per cent and the Supplementary Charge of 10 per cent.
As the legislation was not substantively enacted as at 30 June 2022, the tax charge in the half-year results does not include the impact of EPL for the period which will instead be reflected in the second half of 2022. If the EPL had been considered in the interim period, an additional current tax liability of an estimated $48 million would be expected to arise from business performance in the period 26 May 2022 to 30 June 2022. The EPL tax is a temporary measure and as enacted will cease to apply on 31 December 2025.
Had the EPL been fully enacted before 30 June 2022, these half-year results would have included the recognition of an estimated additional one-off non-cash net deferred tax asset of $1.0 billion in respect of the EPL through to the end of 2025. The anticipated additional net deferred tax asset arises mainly due to an increase in the deferred tax asset associated with unrealised derivative balances of $1.6 billion, offset by an increase in deferred tax liabilities associated with the carrying value of oil and gas assets within fixed assets of $0.6 billion. The deferred tax asset associated with the unrealised derivative balances held at 30 June 2022 represents the estimated reduction in EPL liability that could arise if the fair value loss on those derivatives crystalised and reduced taxable profits subject to EPL in the periods to 31 December 2025.
The amounts disclosed above are provisional and the overall current and deferred tax impact for the year will be included in the full-year results.

Sure Soder but none has been saying explicitly that will remove tax levy.
I remember reading (also from HBR result is interpreted correctly..) that hedging loss will count against the tax levy, but please don't take my words for sure thing, but check it out yourself.
Thing is removing current tax levy would be very unpopular doesn't matter what and it could also jeopardise, next general election, I honestly doubt it will happen.

No much reaction so far, new was much anticipated. I suppose market awaiting concrete words on O&G sector, where tax levy is expected to remain but not increase. This is what I got from news flow and only my opinion (tax levy)
All eyes now on imminent measures on energy bills, gas cap or whatever she will come up possibly this week.

So in short.... Nothing to see here. Russia pulling on one side and the west pulling on the other side with China India etc in the middle. Funny and worrying thing is that actual gas/oil price are moving on day to day news and don't reflect fundamentals.... Which by the way nobody really know where or what they are.. These days making investment decisions on current news flow is becoming a huge gamble in short but also in long terms. I am starting to become detached by what news or geopolitics or even sp and market fundamentals are, possibly looking at technicals is the best bet for not getting burned. Are we really serious about investing in a share (any one) with a view of what earning will be in 2023 or 2024?? What about when I was invested in Nickel Mines (AU) when nickel price was going from 20k/t to 100k/t in fiew days, for then crash to today level... Is it going to happen also with gas or oil... I don't know anymore. Anyway strange times indeed.

So in short.... Nothing to see here. Russia pulling on one side and the west pulling on the other side with China India etc in the middle. Funny and worrying thing is that actual gas/oil price are moving on day to day news and don't reflect fundamentals.... Which by the way nobody really know where or what they are.. These days making investment decisions on current news flow is becoming a huge gamble in short but also in long terms. I am starting to become detached by what news or geopolitics or even sp and market fundamentals are, possibly looking at technicals is the best bet for not getting burned. Are we really serious about investing in a share (any one) with a view of what earning will be in 2023 or 2024?? What about when I was invested in Nickel Mines (AU) when nickel price was going from 20k/t to 100k/t in fiew days, for then crash to today level... Is it going to happen also with gas or oil... I don't know anymore. Anyway strange times indeed.

If I was in charge of SQZ
with Liz going to power there may be some opportunity in a new round of license offers in NS.
Thing is with such uncertainty and volatility of POO/GAS and at current inflated asset price, not to mention the ambiguity of the Tax Levy, at best any upstream O&G would be best to sit tight and make the cash till the sun is shining.
People talking about too much cash been eroded by inflation, fail to remember the favourable exchange rate £/$...
Better wait and see where all this goes, trying to cushion asap the tax ley.

I have posted recently a link from a professional fund manager stating that the energy market is "broken" not functioning anymore.
IMO this is something not to underestimate....I have noticed that O&G shares prices of recent, doesn't react/respond any more to commodities prices as they should or have been doing in the last months.
This could be a worrying sign, if Oil companies sp get disconnected from energy prices, the only direction for the market is down. I am watching carefully not how much higher gas price can go, but how much it can retrace, because right now its price should gradually make new lower high. Winter approaching, Russia closing the tap is enough to keep the gas price at higher levels till well in 2023..
Two previous gas price rises came down even lower than where it started, IMO would be unthinkable to see gas below 200therm for the foreseeable future now...but better to keep an eye on it...

https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/hedge-fund-manager-pierre-andurand-says-oil-market-is-broken-2883540

This looks a retrace that will hit some fib levels before moving higher.
currently at 0.382 with day candles RSI still not in oversold position...
Luck of news flow for rest of the week make the sp wanting lower, but then comes next week we have potential Liz becoming PM and Russia forgetting to reopen the gas tap for Europe, all positive for SQZ sp, on the negative is always the officialization of Iran deal...It looks as if the media try to find any and every possible news to create volatility.
Or maybe is just me overreacting to events, but just look at SQZ sp in the last year to have an idea how volatile the whole market has become.

Black Rock has been reducing of late.....including some lth, gas price yes is at new highs but has come down from 650ish to 450ish that is hell of a drop.
Yesterday I read that an Iranian TV source said, the Iranian nuclear deal has been approved by US....No names of the source was available.
Lots of noise and rumours are becoming more relevant than POO/GAS . You can't trace or draw any technical on news flow, hence many people have no clue for direction.
Also I read that the oil market is broken...volumes are at historical lows and price move a widening, making it very volatile.

upomega
I think you misinterpreted my post. I am not blaming anyone for buying or selling whatever they like.....aren't we all here to make a profit?
Having said that inmo it would be better for the sp if someone wanting out would just get on with it, rather that selling in small lots to get the best price possible....but hey! How am I to say what people should be doing with their money?
On the O&G industry plenty information are available online, for those whishing to have some knowledge base for investing, and yes investment board are also very useful albeit often biased toward ones personal interest.
On gas price today is back up in UK and Europe, I suspect it will stay high awaiting what Gazprom will do in 3 days times....potentially a delay in reopening the gas tap to Europe will skyrocket the gas price from an already very high level.
INMV the question here is not how high gas price will go, but how much gas price can retrace and where the price average will be in say...1 year time.
As posted b4 SQZ is set to be £700mil in cash by end of the 2022, by then is anyone guess to forecast where gas price will be for 2023, but it will still be middle of winter with lots of potential news flow in favour of high gas prices.
In the near term I still think the aftermath of Liz election will be positive for O&G shares and then we have SQZ H1....