Member Info for LuckyLuciano

Yes but I read somewhere that the 3 Andaman licenses have to potential of 6 trillion each.
I do think this is fantasy number by the way.....all will be revealed with next drill...
But at 50% recoverable 6x3 licenses make 9TTcft at 35% averages hbr entitlement for HBR is some 3TTCF or more than 500mbboe.
Only an appraisal drill confirming commercial find in Andaman by value should be doubling the sp...?

Anyone care to figure out how much reserve /resources will be added to hbr
if/when a second appraisal well will be drilled in the Andaman license?
Remember reading of a potential for 6 x3 = 18tcf of gas, in place?
what about oil? will it be at least 50% recoverable?
Timing for a resource update?
Anyone out there with more knowledge than me on the matter?
I am not talking about value...just ow much bboe will mean for HBR share interest in Indonesia...
Repsol high impact drill in on the way maybe results mid September?

Yes the charitable trust has begin to sell few week ago. Good timing i think they bought lower and now taking some profit, is likely they will leave a core holding free shares, invested in the company.
HBR sp is creeping up nicely, yesterday profit taking due to POO retrace, NOT change in fundamental for HBR.
These has to be a nice rise till results...

If was a sale, transaction was at 378,69, Friday close was at 380.80....it seem price has recovered already. Also since the Poo whent higher, me think Monday blue day, but anything is possible...

Hi BH
my assumptions are guestimates.....possibly the best approach would be to multiply $1.5bil x 4 and that's it.
Consider that the first quarter $1.5bil rev. is based on 215bbopde production which is very much at the top of full 2022 range (no matter if Tolmount or any other field has come in production) has it must have been factored in already in 2022 production forecast.
So really the big factor here is not really production (lets say top of guidance been 210k) but price of oil and gas. with almost 5 month still left I feel any of our guesstimates can easily be discarded possibly for a better forecast......and on this is likely the comes H1 there may be more positive updates coming.
Also BH you mentioned of:
EBITDA north of $3bn. FCF should be plus $2bn before tax. GLA====
But pl note that on May update it stated that:
At $100/bbl and 200p/therm average prices for 2022, Harbour continues to expect to generate between $1.5 and $1.7 billion of free cash flow (after tax and the $200 million dividend payment) with the potential to be net debt free in 2023.
====
So already forecasting $1.7/1.9 billions including dividends after tax excluding TW, which imv will have minimal impact..
All in all imv this talk about revenue is quite futile......Is probably safer to say though that given prices have improved from Q1 update, at lees comes end of the year hbr will easily make $2billion fcf , which normally is always considered to be after taxes, and also a better interpretation of net profit.
Hence we are talking about a tiny PE 2, with easily potential to double the sp by end of the year.

my revenue for 2022 is $5.7 billions
taking in to account Oil at ~$100 and gas at current 400p, including hedges.
Anyhow what a fantastic day...it was about time that the market recognise HBR potential.
Oil is bouncing off a descending trend resistance channel, will be interesting if we break that....for a potential move above $100. It would do wonder for HBR sp.....
I am quite confident soon hbr sp will be leaving 400p as support for the 500eds....
I am back on profit hurrraaaaaa.
Eagerly awaiting H1

More than 200k booe production, and lots of potential outside NS. IF Indonesia comes good reserves will shote up.... Interesting times ahead

95 next?

I see WTI price moving up to short term resistance at 92.6.......hop sorry just broken...

..plans are to clear 393 b4 results and then become support.

Yes but for 3 years production was a fraction of today and debit was a mountain.
Just think of debit of PMO compared to its production, no wonder the market was weary.
With so much debit and volatile POO the company could have gone down any time....hence so unfavourable hedges, just to stay afloat.
Now things are changing, higher oil price for longer and debit disappearing, there has to be a rerate.

Just about right and what many here predicted.....
Easley reachable comes 2023, just wonder where the gas price is going to be this winter....
Situation in Ukraine is getting worst for Putin, now Zelensky talking about taking back Crimea.
IMO likely they will close the gas tap to Europe..

Goldman Sachs starts Harbour Energy with 'buy' - price target 609 pence

With about £2millions available daily to spend on share buy back, I wonder if the company/brokers would be able to buy on free market and willingly push up sp?

This current price rise seem different from previous spikes higher...
It is more rise and retrace to consolidate and for a longer period of time.
It does look like price want to get higher and stay there for much longer....

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas

Is it looking for new heights?

...hopefully though by May TW start, the majority of capex still had to be spent or some $800 most of it in NS.
There is also the chance to bring forward some capex, but not sure about that.
All in all this year imo TW impact will be minimal, mainly because the introduction from May, next year is down to management but with plans to develop Mexico and Indonesia, will be a difficult decision.
So unbelievable that a tax because of high oil price/profit, is based on a time frame rather than oil/gas price.
So unbelievable that this particular point has never been discussed, possibly not even by those two candidates for PM job.

Hi onedb
two reasons why oil....not necessarily valid has you describe but at least relevant right now....
First the world is watching WTI and oilers companies sp are affected by it.
Meaning that if then at result report one realise that because of gas revenue results are better than expected.....even better. But for support/resistance and technical levels is WTI that mainly affect every OiL Producers.
Secondly, and on this I have to be frank and admit it, HBR revenue from gas, factoring in hedges will even slightly increasing on gas production in 2023, will be a factor as much as oil///Brent price, which hedges will reduce some 10mbbo in 2023.
These are very difficult calculations for many reasons but the main factor why gas doesn't excite me much is HBR hedges still in place in 2023. Now saying hat.....if UK gas price were to rise very substantially, like for instance exceeding previous high, (same for US gas) then it would be a factor to take note, for HBR. But for day to day techs. and sp is focus on WTI (for me..)
Indeed has you say
coming H1 are paramount for the BoD in communicating to the Pi plans and potential for HBR, particularly at this moment of sp apparent lack of direction.
We need visibility on future new areas of production and development, new drilling plans and plans to alleviate WT.
These are all areas crying to be explained by the BoD, much more important than the bottom line profit members.
I am sure the market is looking for these info, comes H1 results, in deciding thumb up or thumb down.....
Lets see what happens.

Tomorrow should be a good day especially if oil stay above $90.
Jobless claim may be a non event and PPI could be soft, reinforcing easing inflation...
It seems USD Index is looking for 104ish support which is good new for POO.

I would venture to say that POO atm is range bound 87/92, many contradicting news balancing out....
But only my opinion....