Member Info for LuckyLuciano

https://www.investing.com/analysis/the-fed-battle-against-excess-global-captial-continues-200627833

I wonder if a stronger dollar beside improving net profit and financials for HBR, is not also attracting US capital investments to £ stock markets.....Possibly HBR dividends are too low yield for US fund manager, beside the fact that we are now out of FTSE100.
Anyhow difficult conundrum for the Fed, in that is not clear the cause of current inflation.
Many factors out there, including war and geopolitics for energy prices, supply constrain, bottle necking, production disruption and price control, by many producers and in many sectors.
Also pandemic, which although initially would cause deflation, in economies with very little inventories has cause the opposite.
Best guess would be the FED with rate rise is accumulating ammunitions for then do more QE, when growth and deflation will start bite?!
Thing is...although recent US GDP numbers have come out negative, if adjusted for local currencies they might even better then many other countries worldwide....
There are many angles to look at where the economies are going, and none of these is correct...lol

And what about if HBR would sell the lot in Mexico for $2 billion and move on to develop Andaman?
For us shareholders would be better in a sense that I wouldn't like for HBR to open new debit, especially in a high inflationary environment, to develop new oil fields with revenue far away and at unknown POO, say in 3/4 years time....
Less debit better it is.

Done my top up at opening and already plus 2.5%, I am puzzled why other peers are not rising as much as HBR lately, especially with POO higher....
IMV the market is starting to realise potentially how big is the recent Timpan-1 oil discovery found in Indonesia.
So far the company as not mentioned any numbers of reserve to confirm if Andaman license is commercially viable, but the market is sensing that yes it is and yes it is a big find.
But as important if not more for HBR imv is, the partners we are with in Indonesia and the easy logistic for development.
If I was Linda in stead of go shopping for the 40th bag and 30th pair of shoes, I would bang heads together for imminent next drill .....By the way we are still awaiting more news on Timpan-1 or not?
When they say===
A full data acquisition programme has been completed including wireline logging, 240 feet of core recovered and a drill stem test. =====
Do they have to analyse further these data? What about porosity, pressure etc?
Anyhow with POO at this levels is possible the market is starting to price in reserves as much as FCF, and HBR find comes exactly at the right moment...
As said before lots of positive news flow coming out soon, whereas financial result for obvious reasons may be the lest price sensitive....
Nice rise today pl keep it up HBR

Suiciding move me think.
Only yesterday I was watching something about Chinese property market ....scary.
Is GIC maybe a hidden move from the CCP to support a sector about to collapse?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dnp_MxXY9qs

Thanks Schlum
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G9Q0Me8VO7Y

Interesting data out today.
US GDP out at -0.9% forecast was for -0.5%, but previous Q number came out at -1.6%, hence an improvement on that...
US main index opened with a drop for then reverse up, now +0.5%.
A little disappointing where US initial jobless claims, slightly higher than forecasted but still lower than previous week.
POO didn't registered any change out of negative GDP numbers from US, which is a positive, indeed its little higher today, just wondering when some positive GDP growth will come out, what POO will do, (very bullish right now)
HBR sp closed at new day high since begin of July, today statement from Liz Truss is a big one for the NS, I am almost certain she will become the new PM.
Lets remember that this year hrb will make some £1billion profit and pay down another £1.5billions in debit, add to that dividend pay out and less oil price hedges for 2023, and potentially we have a company that will make easily all its current market cap in cash flow.
POO is set to remain high, among all commodities is the one with best fundamentals, but imv its high volatility among other thing keeps investor weary on been fully committed on the sector. Indeed these are new times where the economies have to adapt to new higher energy price levels.
I remember already moths ago when my energy contract expired, that something was changing in the market...
It was not possible to make any price comparison among providers with platforms like, comparethemarket, or uswich etc...
As if free market has stopped and a price cartel had been put in place, soon ofgem will rise even further its pricecap, there is no turning back, not at the pumps not for household prices.
The US recent release of 20mil extra barrels oil has pushed up POO in stead of bringing it down, and rightly soo.
This is not increasing production to the market, this is drawing down strategic stock that soon or later will have to be replaced. Then there is Europe and the winter coming with Russia ready to close the gas tap.
I am planning to sell some shares to top up on here, I will be super over weighted on hbr, but there are too many potential positives lining up for letting this opportunity slip past me. DYOR

Bipolar or split personality, where the second person is an identical twin...

We should organise a nice group to attend the next general meeting.

What should be investigated, is if its legal to be awarded free shares, been able to transfer them and then sell them, without a minimum holding period or a minimum set price.

Sorry children to intrude..
Are we talking about who is the strongest and the weakest?
Because for me Spiderman is the strongest of all....If he catch you with its web you are done mate, finito.

https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Production-vs-Oil-Consumption-in-the-world-1965-2020-Source-Made-by-the-author_fig1_357405912
Talking about Energy Supply constrains.
For POO to stabilise production should increase as much as consumption.
From the graph above it shows that since the 80s consumption has overtake production.
What is interesting to note is that this deficit (80s)came about after a sharp drop of consumption, where production never recovered.
Post pandemic we are facing a similar situation but this time from already a position of deficit in production.
This is why I am quite sure that energy prices will settle at much higher level for ever.
Only a truly transition from fossil fuel to renewable can reverse this trend, but for that to happen world population as to stop rising and massive spending in infrastructures and logistics as to occur, to bring renewable energy to consumer.
Then there is still the conundrum of market price, where renewable has to be priced competitive to fossil, we all saw coal consumption increasing during high POO.
One way or another we will be transitioning from fossil to renewable, but it looks like is going to happen because we are running out of fossil, rather than because we can do that as a choice.

The way I read it is the EIG boss transferring to close associate, wife, lover or somebody that can't be named.

Stevo12
can not agree with you more, this is HBR situation with WT and this is why initially, when WT was announced its sp didn't drop.
First market impression was that HBR was the least affected by WT considering, the large capex commitment in the NS.
Eventually also hbr sp dropped together with other NS oilers due to sentiment, but potentially is still out there the possibility that by managing capex going forward, the WT will not affect hbr bottom line profit.
The way I interpret WT it means that some capex recorded on accounting periods after 25th May will qualify for rebate.
Also (and on this please correct me if I am wrong) the type of capex doesn't have to materially increase production, it can be workover or other other...
HBR has spent only some 10% of this year capex in the first quarter, with the majority of it been spent after the WT came in to effect.
Guestimate calculations are that if at 100$/boe hbr will make £1billion net profit, 25% WT would be around £400millions or $500mil, when HBR still had $1 billion after WT introduction for rebate, less non qualifiable items.
Does anyone know if NS capex for WT rebate can be brought forward?

Judging by POO reaction to news flows, it looks atm supply destruction and recession fear balance out, undersupply and Ukrainian war.
Given current geopolitics, imo it will take a strong and prolonged recession to bring POO at lower levels for long....

https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/crude-tumbles-as-us-to-sell-more-reserve-amid-worsening-economic-stats-2854324
Not to bad POO performance considering that US is releasing another 20mil/boo.
Next few days might see HBR sp easing, big data and sentiment change potential.
I wonder how much longer can the US go with releasing strategic oil reserves, they are not South Arabia and their fracking production doesn't seems to be able to substantially increase production.
If they won't succeed in lowering energy prices, they might have to stock up back reserves at much higher price?!

now skyrocketing and how knows when it will come down.....
But I am looking at the difference in price between UK/gas and international gas price which is traded in dollar but I am not sure if it refers to the US market and if for export or internal market, or is European gas price.
Below the links to these two prices:
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
https://www.investing.com/commodities/natural-gas
Dollar gas price is about double that of UK price, is it possible that there is so much difference between the two markets?

no typo
is that these sharks are trying to get away with it......
If the authority where to do their job this would not happen but also, is surprising that HBR like any other company listed in the sock exchanges, doesn't actively monitor which and what kind of trades take palace, on its own listed shares ?!
Wouldn't be in the interest of the company to monitor if any illegal trading is going on?
Someone could contact the company out of curiosity to listen what they have to say......

lol...today I find it difficult to focus.
Seriously what is all about trade for 440k at 421p, fat finger typo ?
Could it be someone going long?

Probably again some Directors cashing in on the opportunity of their life time.
Its ironic in a way, that on the cusp of hbr sp rerating (imo) the same architects of this creation of wealth are taking the back exit door....

Please what's the connection between BOA buying shares of HBR and handling the sale of CONCO PHILIPS assets?