Member Info for LuckyLuciano

...I was just wondering what is all about....
with huge increase in US job report the market and oil down????
and there we go, up and away

...also after reading this, one has to wonder how much more development renewable energy still need, to become a solution in energy supply.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-08-04/european-energy-crisis-germany-s-switch-to-diesel-comes-at-a-cost?srnd=premium-europe#xj4y7vzkg

Enquest update out...Disappointing sp performance possibly helped by OPEC...
They have currently same debit than HBR, for a quarter of production. Not sure their oil/gas production ratio but it seems the market is pricing in a reducing/depleting producing asset and little exploration licenses prospect going forward?!

100% Twice2
It has been a while now since the market is selling non revenue companies of even astronomical PE valuation like techs.
Of late the selling is accelerating especially for cash strapped business models, even in the O&G sector.
Pure exploration company are suffering and couldn't be any different....
Inflation is high and cheap cash is not there anymore....
Enters HBR, cash generating, inflation indexed, currency exchanges positive business, just awaiting for the Tax levy to be lifted.

Lets put it this way, even with current down trend on POO and ignoring the gas price, is a fact that HBR poopbe for 2022 will be $100 or above.
This means we are coming out of 2022 possibly debit free and with a new huge potential oil/gas discovery in Indonesia.
News flow going forward will if positive, will add to the sp exponentially, then it comes the POOE in 2023......
Now, will Putin decide to open the tap to Europe as before, knowing that will cause a drop in gas price, after Russia has been sanctioned and billions of $ have been frozen and confiscated by our leaders?!
Maybe yes.......if Putin is mad that is!
Naaaaa is my believe that energy prices will remain high and maybe even very high.

https://www.investing.com/analysis/natural-gas-bulls-vulnerable-to-more-market-swings-as-us-heat-peaks-200628051

Indeed there is a huge disconnect between US gas price and Europe.
The idea that US gas price have been pushed up by the need from Europe to buy more US gas, is valid but irrelevant, because in the end short and possibly long terms, the amount of gas US will be able to provide to Europe is ridiculous.
The fact is that recent increase of US gas output of 3 bcf/d is a drop in the ocean, compared to Europe needs.
Europe imported 150 bqm of gas from Russia in 2021, supposing a 50% reduction going forward, equate to a reduction of approximately 7 bcf/d.
Moreover the recent US increased production of 3 bcf/d is surely not all for Europe export and also in the for of LNG.
But i am also reading that:

UK natural gas futures were trading around the 350-pence-a-them mark, a level not seen since early March, underpinned by uncertainty over Russian supplies and elevated demand from the EU. Russia's Gazprom said it would reduce flows through the Nord Stream pipeline, citing issues with turbines, delivering only 33 million cubic meters daily, roughly 20% of its capacity, forcing European buyers to find replacements like LNG. Still, the channels linking Britain to the EU have been working at maximum capacity. The UK has been using its excess regasification capacity to import more LNG and resell it as natural gas to Europe. .
================================
Two takes from the above reading from https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas:
First is that if current gas flow to Europe is actually 33 mcm/d or some 1.2 bcf/d, this compare to last year 14 bcf/d is equivalent to actually Russian, having already closed the supply.
Secondly is that the current price of £3.5/them is much cheaper that USA market at current $8.5/them......on this not been familiar with these metrics I would be happy to get, reply and confirmation from the board...
But if I got this right, indeed there is a huge disconnect between the two prices, implying that imv is likely that any realignment of these two markets would see UK gas price increase further and US gas price reducing a little.
Moreover the dynamic is in place for a higher UK gas price, considering how little gas right now Russia is pumping to Europe....

https://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_1e7c4b59ae2aa2e2457ee4a803d0c232.png
Uptrend support so far is intact.
I done my final top up yesterday making the stupid mistake to buy too earlier at 360p, when saw the POO spiking up.....didn't follow the chart but followed the gamble and made a mistake.
My original plan was to buy below 350....
Up and way to H1 blue sky, with 3 weeks left to result IMO there is a good chance that we will break strong resistance at around 400p, which then will became support, for a push to 530ish.....

Thank you kign for the links.
Indeed my question was if Rencong-1X the Repsol is currently drilling in Andaman 3 is not successful, it doesn't mean anything for our licenses because with Timpan-1 we have already established that it is commercial.
I was invested in a Nickel mine producer in Indonesia till recently.....the Indonesian Gov. allowed zero Tax rate for 10 years to this company, on new projects. Just wondering what would be the Indonesian Gov. involvement from the financial and tax aspects on Andaman development, considering that it would be of great national and strategic importance.

Pearls....another wanna be trader that decided to go short because OPEC increased (apparently) 100k production...
Haaaaa good luck with your gambling folks. Me I suggest the roulette, odd even or black red, there at least you have almost 50% chances to get it right.
I respect anyone decisions on investments, and actually any information is helpful when is truthful and accurate, but to spread around false information for personal gain is pathetic and shameful.
Another filtered on ignore.

..a new shorter has just landed on this board.
This guy? is short on HBR and long on IAG...lololol going round saying that now IAG will make lots of profit with cheep airplane fuel lololol
on Ignore for me. No worth reading his posts designed only to suite is trading and not bringing any meaningful information to the board.

also..
https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/432955/liz-truss-rishi-sunak-aberdeen-north-sea-oil-and-energy-plans/
this is subscription content.
But I have the feeling that the WT may be scrapped.......more and more conservative are backing Liz...

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/asia/299746/repsol-and-petronas-set-for-key-wildcat-in-indonesias-deep-waters/
.......if Rencong-1X is not successful, doesn't mean that Andaman won't be commercial right?
Mubadala is also planning a probe on its South Andaman Block, which it shares with Premier Oil.
....When Mubadala is going to drill this well?

But even with Brent price
HBR is trading at same levels of 2021 when Brent averaged $70, since then market has also to factor in debit reduction.
I am expecting a POO rebound soon, OPEC 100k is a non event, winter is coming and is more likely Russia will close the tap to Europe.
So far HBR uptrend resistance level intact, possibly tomorrow a blue day with oil rebounding.....up and away to results.

Question please
Where is going, how is cashing in the actual money used for share buy back and cancellation?
Is it the market maker ?

Thank you for the info BH
Whish I have Upstream web site subscription, but too steep a price for me, maybe I should...
Pl keep feeding info when you can.
POO rebounding showing strength, might be a bit volatile next few days with Opec meeting on Wednesday, ready to buy more hbr below 350, if it gets there...

BH hi
not so sure about depleting assets in next 2 years though. It seem production is increasing and workover maintenance is ongoing, is likely that depleting assets would affect only capex, which with Tax levy will become tax efficient....all depending qualifying costs and all that..
But indeed Andaman has to be brought forward to 2024/25 max. BP and partners will have no problem to make cash available for rapid development, maybe a question make will come from Indonesian GOV. but anyway these are all conjectures, so many moving parts and unfortunately so much guess work.
Lets hope H1 wont disappoint on the info side....In will be furious if the Management will not communicate properly and extensively plans for the future, given recent events.

Sorry I don't agree.
BP is divesting if I read it correctly not investing, they are concentrating on high margin activities in NS possibly fixed costs to profit infrastructures.
HBR as far greater opportunities in Indonesia, best capital employment right now is more exploration drills away from NS.
Yes 95% tax allowance for NS capex is generous but are you going to trust these politicians? Do you think they really care about oil national security, or even the poor people paying over the border for energy bills....
This is why BP is selling $10bill asset in NS, even though their tax payment or debit repayments may be different from HBR, hence different cash flow needs.
We have to speed up with a production drill in Andaman and more exploration drills on licenses we already own.

Yes had a look at Andy Mayer news round , you're correct his answer are balanced and informative.
What gets me is that even after his replies, some journalist and other seem not been able to register of comprehend, what his's talking about.
The conundrum or irony of new tax levy, lies on the fact that NS oil extraction is more expensive than before. In this form this tax is a lose lose policy, because in the end not enough revenue will be generated to help pay household bills.
Probably this is why by some has been called smash and grab, indeed who should be paying more taxes are the super rich individual and companies, not specifically those companies that from time to time make large profits.
I am just wondering why Governments make it so difficult to help people in need. These politicians have degrees and mingle among the most intelligent minds on the planet, is it possible that they are hunted by guilt and despair?

.....My simple idea which is surely already happening somewhere, is to build lost of desalinising complex to start.
Water shortage is going to be a huge problem in the near future and plants need water.
Plants also is the best way to absorb co2 and also it create an ecosystem for biodiversity.
Desertification is happening right now including deforestation, if we what to keep our standard of living or even improve it, we have to invest in these area.
Why invest in desalinising project? Because global warming is accelerating, Why planting more trees? Because a tree can outlive a human been .....what a beautiful gift to live to our children, and what a cheap way to do it.
...and so once we build desalinization farms we can plant trees in deserts and capture co2, but we can also do much more.....Like improve international relationships between countries, create employments and produce more food.
It may be too simple approach to calculate how much co2 a plant is able to sequestrate, but why not if is also the cheapest way?
Pace and love.

Sekforde great points .
No doubt since WT and Timpan discovery, finance allocation for the company has changed.
Let see what happens....one would think and hope that given the extensive experience of the BoD in finance, they will be wise and fast reacting to the new situations. For sure more capex to offset WT is doable although I don't know what are the criteria for capex to qualify for tax reduction.
On this please, if anyone has a link that explain in more detail what capex can be offset against that new tax levy.....thank you.
I have also raised a point with the company, for a better employment of funds towards Net Zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2035.
In my view investments in carbon capture and sequestration is a waste of money. Below is a quote from the company website:
"Our strategy also includes carbon capture and storage. In the UK, we have the potential to use our infrastructure and offshore depleted reservoirs to store massive amounts of industrial co2. Today it is not clear whether investment in these projects will make commercial sense. Nevertheless we are moving forward with preliminary engineering and technical studies while we seek clarity on the regulatory and commercial framework, with the hope to advance the projects towards investment decisions in the coming years. In parallel, we have committed to acquire high-quality carbon offset credits over time to address our residual emissions so that we are Net Zero by 2035.
========================================
Two points on this.
"Today it is not clear whether investment in these projects will make commercial sense."

Right....so one as to wonder if the company approach to zero emissions is correct.
Are they investing for commercial reasons? Because last time I checked we are already doing it with oil production/profit. Are these people serious about reducing co2? We should question this with the company because money are going to be spent anyway, why not invest them wisely for something that last, is cheaper and everybody can benefit from?
My second point is about investing in Carbon Offset Credits.
This can only be a viable alternative toward zero emissions, if the money invested in COC is wisely and cheaply invested in reducing emissions.
I am not familiar with COC but my understanding is that they are tradable financial product, therefore its value fluctuate due to financial speculations among. Its unlikely that money spent on COC do not reflect the true value/cost of CO2 emission.
Yes sure they may do the job from the Gov. legislation side of it, but are they cheaper and more effective than alternative kind of investments?
To conclude I think the company together with other peers in the industry, should actively engage with the UK Gov. in a new system, to value the damage that green house gasses emission cause. Something that is not regulated by market forces and that is global.
Follow next post...