Member Info for longtermthinker

Daikihaku1

Basically RKH have benefitted from the 45m first tranche which paid off the lawyers and the folk that put up the cash to fight the case and we kept approx 15m. If the annulment goes in our favour, we get another 65m Euros in our account before the ink dries!

Then I believe the 3rd part is we get a share of the left overs once they have received 200% of the money they have paid out. So RKH get 110m Euros, the people that bought the payout, pay, say another 10m to force Italy to pay up in one year from now.

"Tranche 3 - Potential payment of 20% on recovery of amounts in excess of 200% of the Specialist Fund's total investment including costs."

So they will have paid out 120m, so that means they keep 240m and anything above that we get to keep 20% of. Therefore if in a years time they get paid out 260m including interest, then we get 20% of 20m which is 4m Euros. Of course they could do a deal with ROI to get paid sooner and thus take a cut in the amount they receive, say 200m, then we wouldn't get anything in the 3rd tranche, but it wouldn't effect our 65m payout, we get that no matter what deal they decide to do with the ROI should the annulment go in our favour.

Either way, we will get 31m euros whether we win or lose, Sam has got us covered.

LTT

Just maybe we are settling at a new norm, 20p seems to be holding and volume is still around 4.5m shares, so it's all good in my books.

A great break out point for further news, be it OM, Funding or a partner. If we'd been at 12p or 13p when some further news hit, we would have been lucky to breach 20p, put this recent update has pretty much surprised everyone!

The future looks clearer and bright, things seem to be moving a pace and with OM due anytime from now to Q1, things are looking better and better. OM, then funding/partner and then BOOM with FID, plus we will have more than enough cash to pay our share even though first oil costs are up an extra $200m. More so with a partner on board, which lets face it, as DEM said, it's not in Navitas MO to do things on their own, which by carrying RKH they would basically be doing.

I see a partner coming in to the tune of 30-35%, maybe becoming operator down the line. I wonder how it will work though, surely a partner couldn't just come in at cost, with Navitas having done all the work, maybe they get 35% of everything for paying 45% of costs, but who knows.

Kinda glad we have taken a breather with the northern trajectory, much prefer the up, take a breath, then up some more, rather than a huge increase only to come back down with a bump. Still, I would like to be in the blue again tomorrow, I'm sure you'll all agree, it's nice to see ones RKH shares heading towards break even territory are even into profit!

KR LTT

Like the cut of your jib Rookie1, 20p a share would be AMAZING!

Still cannot see where it will come from, but then look a RKH an push back of FID should have seen the share price back to 11p but the reserves upgrade and a plan for 3 phases flipped it on its head!

Many Borders should commission such a document with a more accurate plan of what it would cost to develop, giving a couple of scenarios, going it alone or sharing a rig. This might entice folk to look at Borders more closely.

LTT

And also because Navitas will need finance to get FID over the line, thanks Thenorseman, it’s good to hear the US and in particular Isreal are receptive to investing in oil and gas.

Many thanks

LTT

Nice one Space, great minds think alike, I got my wife 50k in a ISA, bought them out 15p some time ago and she has forgotten about them, hope to give her a Christmas surprise when she logs in! I won't be saying how may I have in my ISA though ! "I have just a few more than you darling!" LOL

LTT

I was expecting Borders to rise in tandem with RKH, as what's good for them has to be good for us.

A big partner coming on board for RKH has to bode well for getting to FID and boots on the ground in the Falklands and surely a well or two on Borders prospects to check it out before sealing a deal. Are people selling Borders to buy Rocky, hope not as a sniff of something positive here and we are off to the races IMHO.

Fingers and toes crossed that we are on RKH coat tails.

LTT

Hi Thenorseman,

I think we are heading up to break 20p maybe today/tomorrow, can't believe this rise upon rise, it seems the break of £100m market cap from the resource upgrade and the plan to develop to Phase 3 and beyond has given some real clarity to investors and they are coming onboard.

The positive, although not a positive for those still underwater, is the price is having to rise because no-one is selling in any quantity, and as they reach and surpass break even on this steady climb north, I like, many others am thinking this is just the beginning.

As you say, we are in a HUGELY better position when we are at 20p way back when, and we still have so much news to come! What a great base to start from, maybe 20p+ and then OM comes, then partner/funding and then FID. It's all to play for, I wouldn't want to be out this year!

;-)

KR LTT

Morning Paul,

Yes it’s been a while and I thought the ICSID were upping their game, being more prompt with updates and with moving forward. Not sure who it was, but remember someone gave examples of previous hearings with rough timelines and predicted we should hear something December/Jan if they kept to the same pattern! 🤔

Still, I’m not complaining, it’s good to see we still have forward and upward momentum, pretty high volume at 9:30am on a Monday morning and a MC over £100m so it seems like we are settling at a new level to move upwards from.

I wonder what will come next, OM? funding? partner? Or will they wait until Q2 and have a big blowout RNS saying not only are the ducks lined up but they are well and truly paddling away!

The good thing is, from this new level, if it’s on the back of the resource/development plan upgrade, the OM result going in our favour should take us to the mid 25p point. Then should we get a heavy hitting partner, I see 50p+ as funding and FID would be a done deal. IMHO

LTT

CJ, I’d like to think if it’s Murphy who farm in, they will have being doing due diligence as they have gone along and FIG are too busy getting oil ready to be bothered by Navitas and RKH chopping and changing.

I’d like to see Murphy farm in to Navitas percentage to the tune of 30-35%. Navitas could sort that with minimal paper work and bother to FIG. Start slicing up RKH and taking over as operator is a different matter, and why do it now, why not share the costs and the risk and get Funding, FID and first oil over the line. Then take at RKH, yes they would pay a good deal more, but the risks would be gone as oil would be flowing.

The Falklands is a greenfield site, there are a lot of knows but also a lot of unknowns. Ian is on the case and Murphy will trust him but there are still things that can go wrong, just look at Shenandoah, 6 months delay due to a tragic accident, and it was totally out of their control.

Anyway it’s all up in the air, the ride might just be due to OM dropping, who knows, it’s exciting all the same.

LTT

If Murphy come on board, the ramification are immense! Not only would they take 30-35% but most likely they would become operator and they/we would have the added benefit of Uncle Sam keeping an eye on things. Argentina wouldn’t dare step out of line . Not that they can do much anyway apart from spitting the dummy.

If Murphy comes on board you can say hello to 40p in a blink if you ask me. The papers would go wild with headlines such as, “The Yanks are coming”, “Uncle Sam takes a stake in Falklands Oil Bonanza!” Etc.

Plus no to mention funding would be so much easier with an experienced player onboard, and the amount needed buy Navitas and by default RKH would be much less. I have always enjoyed Borgos Jack-an-nories, taken with a good pinch of salt. But how you have no idea how much I’d like him to be on the money this time around.

Have fab weekend all. Looking forward to seeing what next week brings.

LTT

Could it be Repsol? Or with it being US, could Noble come back into the fold?

"Spain’s Repsol has reached a deal to sell producing oil and gas assets in Colombia to Latin American producer GeoPark for $530 million, as part of the overhaul of the portfolio of the Spanish energy major."

They will have the cash after this deal, that's if they don't have to give it all to shareholders! If it's Noble, maybe they are sniffing around Borders too, after all they were interested in the Southern acreage last time!

Interesting times indeed.

LTT

But Unionjack, you might kick yourself if you cashed in 100 shares now for a pint, like the guy who bought pizza with Bitcoins!

" In May 22, 2010, a programmer named Laszlo Hanyecz made history by spending 10,000 Bitcoins to have two (large) Papa John's pizzas delivered to his door".

Interesting to see Borders and RKH in the top 20 risers today, last time I looked Borders was 4th and RKH was 16th, but realise that can change in a blink, but still great to see.

LTT

Silver, I think you will get there and then some. If everything plays out, funding, FID next year, Rig getting booked, FPSO going in for a refit, and all the news headlines making fun of UKGov and their Net Zero car crash and the Falklands becoming the equivalent of the Saudi Oil barons, buying solid gold houses ;-) etc, the problem you will have will be do you sell having doubled you money or let it ride!

Good luck with your investment what ever you plan to do. Oh to have such a dilemma!

LTT

We have gone up 4p in one week, last Friday we were hovering around 13.75-14.00p now we are heading over 18p and who knows where we will end the day.

If anything I expected the Navitas update to cause a drop in the share price with FID being delayed to mid 2025, or are the very least, with the positive upgrade in resources and the game plan to go for a 3 phase development, to tread water. I never expected this kind of rise.

So either something on funding is coming or OM is going to drop in December, with the annulment team maybe planning to have their Spring clean early and get a few things tied off this side of Christmas.

I also like Jocks comment that maybe some folk are buying due to contracts for work in the Falklands being signed off, maybe with boots on ground from Q2 2025. I have to admit, if I got a memo that I was heading down to the Falklands on a 6 month rolling contract to build on the site next to the docks in preparation for drilling supplies, I would be weighing in for a few shares, and telling a few mates, to "fill your car up before Friday", nod nod, wink, wink, say no more!

Is anyone planning on being out for the weekend!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?

LTT

Not sure what the board have in mind for Borders, but it must be ripe to pop up a bit. RKH is heading north and it cannot be just because of a reserves upgrade. If anything they should have fallen with the FID being pushed back or at the very least with the reserves upgrade treaded water!

Something is afoot and it’s more than 12 inches! Hopefully the positives will rub off here.

Good luck to us all, I wouldn’t want to be out over the weekend! 😉

LTT

Hi Much,

Good to see you posting, you can’t blame some people for selling, if anyone got 100k shares in the 9p warrants, they may have their core holding and want some spending money for the festive hols. Such a gain is not to be sneezed at in the current climate and RKH could sit around this level or even come off the boil with no OM news this side of Christmas 🤔

That being said, I am holding through to funding, FID, the FPSO getting signed up…….. “To infinity and beyond!” 😉 well maybe not till quite then, but you get my meaning.

Many have a little play with 10% of my holding but that would be it unless circumstances change.

KR LTT

Hi Space,

I think Dem said, once the 100m MC was broken it would allow certain investors to buy or at the very least, bring RKH onto the radar of new investors who don’t look at anything under a 100m MC🤔

It seems, was on the money.

LTT

But when I check the share price and seeing it is 17:00, I keep thinking it’s going down, it means it’s only 5!!!!!!!! LOL, 16:85 seems bigger!

I must be going crazy or maybe my mind doesn’t comprehend that RKH is finally on the up, I haven’t seen such high numbers in quite a while, maybe I’m suffering from number dyslexia 🤔

Still it’s really great to see. Onwards and upwards I say, but cannot see what the trigger is, it was said on here that nobody would buy with FID and funding kicked down the road into 2025 and beyond. Surely it can’t just be because they have got 16% more resources and they are developing to phase 3 and beyond. The small and low cost start seems a distant memory!

LTT

Hi PortStanley,

haven't seen you post in a while. Hope you are well. Any word on the street of outsiders drinking at the bar with oily overalls! ;-)

Ok, maybe a bit too soon for that, but anything happening on the ground? Construction of prefab housing, movement on the land near the dock that has been earmarked for the oil industry?

Suppose as you say, nothing can move ahead until the Funding has been signed off, Prax cannot release the Aoka Mizu; a shovel can't break the ground, a rig cannot be booked. It's all MoU's, LOI's, Letters of Comfort and maybe long lead items getting pencilled in, but nothing can move without the money. Come on Navitas, show us the money! LOL

Best we can hope for to keep the momentum is OM dropping, surely they will want this put to bed before the New Year!

Also, it might be worth keeping one eye on Borders, anything positive on funding and a partner and they could shoot up also. IMHO

LTT

Think if it stays about 100m MC, it might just entice more investors in.

Bloo with regards the offer I think Anadarko walked away after they were in the news about discussions, and then the best offer of the bunch was PMO. Hindsight is a wonderful thing.

If only I’d bought more or got rid of more at the key moments, if I had I’d be a millionaire!

LTT