Member Info for longtermthinker

We should be aware that potential is the operative word here, potential. We are in a great position with 100% but we have to accept the reality that we are not going to keep it and will get bought out or form a partnership.

I am hoping that Navitas or another player comes in, allows us to keep 25% ( afraid 35% like RKH wouldn’t be on the in the cards, as RKH had over $1b spent on appraisal and a FDP/EIS all but completed). Even so, 25% carried with an appraisal campaign would be a fabulous result IMHO. We would be over 10p in a blink on such news 👍

Now if someone comes in and plans a couple of exploration/appraisal before Navitas starts drilling SL, which will most likely happen 2nd half of 2026, then it’s game on. Imagine if they drill a exploration well and not only prove up Darwin West, but snag the edge of the deeper prospect like Stewart and suddenly they have 2 billon barrel recoverable, a load more look a like prospects, it would be like what Exxon found in Guyana! 25% would be worth $$$$$$$$$🤑

LTT

It would have to be post FID, imagine buying out RKH now, then Shenandoah gets delayed for one reason or another, oil price drops as Trump says drill baby drill and brokers peace with Russia and Ukraine, then FIG end up in court over emissions, etc, etc. Not say any of those will happen, but if you did take out RKH and then you are stuck with Navitas kicking the can down the road as per PMO, talking FID in mid/late 2026, your really would look foolish!

So post FID to my mind, but with OM coming and funding news on the cards and contracts being sorted in principle, the share price should rise further so a take out becomes more and more expensive.

LTT

I cannot see how Borders can do any drilling, never mind producing before 2028 at the earliest. Once FID is done, then we are on track to first oil late 2027 and that would mean FIG would have its hands full sorting SL. Not to mention supporting a second rig in the south whilst SL is being drilled in the north, it would be impossible.

However if someone were to take out Borders, say Navitas and RKH offer 5p a share cash and RKH shares, that could be a goer IMHO. Not ideal, being a Borders shareholder as I am, but would give Borders shareholders cash and a near term upside with SL going into production. Then after the first 11 wells, they get a higher spec rig to tootle down to Isobel to appraise it, then it heads down to Darwin to pop a hole or two down there, to test Darwin West and Stokes or Stewart underneath.

The reason I see Navitas taking them out or partnering is, Gideon would feel a bit silly if he let another player farm in to Borders, they share a rig down in 2028 to drill Isobel, then Nav let the rig go down to Darwin West, but they snag the edge of the deeper prospect, say Stewart and suddenly they have 2 billon barrel recoverable, a load more look a like prospects similar to Exxon found in Guyana! Gideon would have egg on his face! Can he allow that to happen? I think not. 

Just some musing, but anyway, back to the Rock, onwards and upwards.

LTT

Seems like folk are waking up to the reality of RKH finally getting to FID, and this is without the press banging the drum!

Once the news of OM drops, and then Navitas talks about funding and FID gets closer, we could blast through 50p in a blink!

Then we should get some news on all the things that have been going on behind the scenes as contracts get signed off once the money is sorted.

Fingers and toes crossed.

LTT

Made a purchase this morning around 9am to 9.30am, but it hasn't shown up yet, not a big purchase in the scheme of things, but pretty big for me. I wonder how many more buys haven't been shown.

With RKH going from strength to strength, Borders can't be held back for much longer! We should be at 3.5p to 4p by the end of the week, minimum!

LTT

On the Bid, maybe it’s today, then on to 3p next week.

It’s about time!

LTT

Hi BrightSpot,

It is interesting to hear there are several interested parties, I cannot blame them, with the U.K. pretty much suffers death of a thousand taxes, I’m not surprised. Also to add in something Gideon said from the transcription, Argentina has said they wouldn’t black list anyone coming onboard. Not that it changes much as on any political party changes, anyone involved could end up back on the naughty list and worst still have asset’s ceased if they have any in Argentina. Still it’s good to hear.

LTT

Hi JEBR,

Oh right, I was paraphrasing LOL, but I’ll stick at 75p FID if that’s ok.

Maybe we should try and have an FID party in London or the midlands where the winner doesn’t put their hand in their pocket for the whole evening! Only if it gets to 75p that is! 😉😂

LTT

Hi JBER,

I was putting my end of year target as 91p, not sure why you have another one at 75p! I'm not trying to cheat.

As for a first oil target, I'd actually go for £1.57p (not the £1.10 I was suggesting as following the pattern of Navitas, increasing 4 times for the current share price). However if Navitas does pop an appraisals of two in Isobel before, then all best are off and I can see us heading to £3+ and then some. One can but dream. LOL

So just to be clear.

EOY2025 91p

First Oil £1.57p

KR LTT

Sorry, gdo Dumd Spill Heck!

;-)

Meant "OM dropping"

LTT

Buffet, all I can think of is the recent Navitas presentation and the prospect if ON dropping at any moment. They cannot drag this out too much longer and therefore I imagine once the annulment committee get back into the office next week, they will have this on their agenda to put to bed. IMHO

LTT

Will apart for gripping on to (or clutching at........!) my 57p by the end of the Chinese New Year 2025! ;-)

I am trying to work out what the share price reaction will be. If we look at where we are, on nothing but Navitas knocking back FID to mid 2025, a 16% upgrade in resources and the 3 phase plan, then OM coming in could add 5p to 10p depending on whether we get 33m or the full amount. Then funding news and maybe a 20% partner coming in could possibly take us 50p+, as FID would be a forgone conclusion.

Even so, FID would be an amazing news worthy event and we shouldn't underestimate how the media can cause a frenzy, so we could see 75p on that new. Then I see a bit of treading water and a little bit of a fall back as we await further news, and knowing how Navitas works, that will be few and far between. The next big news is possibly the rig getting booked/setting sale, which could be back end of 2025 if they plan some appraisals on Isobel prior to starting Sea Lion! Hmmmmmh, maybe I am clutching are straws again. LOL!

Ok so my end of year target is 91p, but to be honest I' be happy with any of the guesses, the main things is getting FID, once that's in the bag and Shenandoah is pumping, it really is game on, then I would probably hang on to first oil, as even with a conservative rise following the pattern of Navitas, we would be at £1.10 at first oil.

LTT

Can't understand why this is being kept down! Is it so someone can make an offer when the time is right?

Giving a 100% premium at 2.5p is better than having to give it at 5p a share! I just cannot see another reason this is not flying with RKH and Navitas moving from strength to strength! Hopefully something will have to give sooner rather than later and we can start on the road to reflecting so semblance of the value that we have here!

Happy new year everyone.

LTT

But Space, I was working to the Chinese New Year 🤔 so it’s all still to play for in my books! 😉

LTT

Meant to say;

Happy New Year to one and all, let 2025 be the year of the Rock.

Have a good one.

LTT

Well not my biggest regret, but I got into Desire from a news paper article about Desire Petroleum way back in the mists of time before the rig even set sail, think it was a tip in the Daily Mail LOL! Anyway I got quite a few Desire and then when RKH came into being, I think I thought Desire was getting a bit pricey so bought RKH. I had about a ratio of roughly 10 Desire to 1 RKH. My thoughts were that surely Desire couldn’t miss and therefore by default, RKH whom had the acreage all around Desires would get carried along with it. I even bought a few more RKH in the flash crash for anyone who remembers it, when RKH dropped like a stone and then shot back up!

Who would have thought Desire would miss everything and RKH would come in, being on the basins margins! Of course now I have been educated by the likes of Oil Brat, Marlon to name but a few, it stands to reason the fans would be around the edges of the basin! DOH. Hindsight is a wonderful thing. It was more timing than good management, but managed to take about £25k out of RKH to renovate a house at around £3.50/£4.00 a share, and then foolishly held on, selling on the way down as and when I needed a bit of cash, until I was selling at a loss, always hoping they would come back, but I should have listened to Stu I think it was, who once PMO farmed in said it was the worst decision RKH could have made and he was off. He correctly predicted they could never FID and take it to production.

I sold the last batch, probably 6/7 years ago and never looked back, thought it was over. Then, in mid 2019 I had a bit of spare cash and started buying a few stocks again in my ISA and I noticed PMO making strides forward back end of 2019, bought quite a few, then in early 2020, (lucky again) I sold the lot before Covid hit and got back into RKH, thinking with Navitas as a partner and PMO on the up, what could go wrong!!!!!!!!!! Then, when PMO went under and Harbour took over, I was convinced Harbour would push forward with Sea Lion, so much so I bought even more. Couldn’t believe my luck to get a reasonable stake so cheaply, even took up the warrants. I did sell a few on the back of the first OM news saying we won, and went on to make a few ill advised investments here and there that came to nought.

So here I am, more RKH shares that I had way back when with the incredibaly strong possibility of Sea Lion actually going ahead. Harbour did us a big favour walking away, Navitas is in a fantastic position to take this forward. I had thought they would bring in a partner to be operator, but after reading the transcript of Gideon I realise they have got Ian and Team to run the show, they intend to remain operator and call all the shots. So any partner coming in will have to just come along for the ride on the cash cow. Going by how Navitas’ Unit price has risen over the past 5 years, riding shotgun is not a bad place to be if you ask me.

Happy New Year to one and all, let 2025 be the year of

I was just looking at Beacon Offshores media page, they have some great images and a cool video of the FPS being built and loaded onto the ship for transport.

https://www.beaconoffshore.com/media

In the press release it they talk about the FPS arriving;

"in TX in the middle of February for limited final preparations and regulatory inspections to be followed by wet tow and offshore installation at the Shenandoah Walker Ridge project site."

"First oil for Shenandoah remains on track for the second quarter of 2025"

So, first oil is coming, barring any knock backs, may be April, only roughly 3 months delay, I wonder what the share price of RKH will be then!

Onwards and upwards.

LTT

Cannot understand why we are not moving up here 🤔 RKH’s move upward has to be mirrored here sooner or later.

Hopefully 2025 will be the year Borders gets a deal or taken over, of course a deal would be preferred, but I just want something to happen, seems like the board are just twiddling their thumbs. Why are they not shouting about Darwin from the rooftops!

LTT

Nice one lufc4eva, but would like to think there would be a share split at some point if RKH is still around, double or triple the shares in issue once it goes above £3 and the dividends are rolling in! One can but dream.

LTT

Hi Croft, well after the 11 wells to get SL pumping the rig will have some free time before the next 11, so why not appraise Isobel then🤔.

Although I would like to see the rig arrive early and do a couple of appraisals on Isobel first, that way they can think about the “Next, Next Big Thing”, but that isn’t really in Navitas’ remit. Although Navitas’ pie chart showing their resources would be 90% in the Falklands once Isobel is appraised! 😳

Gosh, is it really happening!

Here’s to a VERY Happy New Year

LTT