Member Info for longtermthinker

It just seems like a down day while we wait for the notice of AGM.

Only smallish trades going through so probably they are just making a market, seeing who has a loose grip or needs to sell to get some cash. Have to admit, I was thinking of selling a few to put into Eco as they are heading down also, but decided against it. I have more than enough RKH and Eco to be comfortable with even on a drop back to the 60's. Of course the paper loss would be painful, but then, nothing fundamental has changed, Navitas are working in the Falklands, or should I say cracking on down there; they have an MOU on another FPSO which if it comes good gives us access to to 63k per day in the future; a rig is due to be down their in 6 months drilling development wells, the first of which is targeting a 55m barrel prospect and the FPSO we have secured is heading for Singapore, so where is the panic?

Also, I stumble across a post about Harbours purchase of LLOG, they had production of 35k per day, 2P reserves of 270m barrels, and they paid $3.2B in cash and stock. I know we may have further dilution down the line to fund the fast track drilling and 2nd FPSO, maybe that is what is causing the weakness. However, 3-6 months after first oil we should be able to get RBL, which may not require further dilution.

Anyway, make of it what you will, but it gives an idea for what a takeover offer could look like IF we get past first oil with a line of sight to upping production to 63k barrels per day.

LTT

It's interesting, I would imagine they would need to check the hull and give it a good old scrape after being on the Lancaster field for what is it, 7 years. Could be a load build up a the hull that could effect its passage to Singapore. Sure there will be someone more knowledgeable who could say for sure that cleaning the hull reduces drag and will save $200k in fuel costs and lost time!

Does anyone know if the Aoka moves under its own steam or will need a tow?

LTT

Well that’s interesting, I’m with Jimmy, 2 Israeli board members seems most likely, but it could work in our favor, it will while away a couple more months for them to get their feet under the table, which is a couple of months closer to the rig setting sail and first oil.

On the matter of the share price drop, I’m with boot on this, it will all work in the favor of a bidder if they try to take us out, a 30-40% premium to the average over the preceding 3-6months, a low of 73p a high of what was it, 93p 🤔.

Still, with the new board members coming in, surely there cannot be an offer kicking about.

LTT

Hi Paul,

I did notice that, imagine the PDF was made prior to the change, but still whether its Q1 or H1 2028, it makes little difference as long as we get there in the end. That is if we are still around, looking at the PDF we are looking very tasty now, with Phase 1,2,3 following on after each other and upside with Isobel, someone has to bite. 63k per day, that's over $800m a year working on an oil after costs of $35 a barrel (oil price a conservative $65) however before royalties and tax.

Then there are loads more targets to go at! 😅

Good to see they are cracking on with work in the photos too. As I have said before, Navitas are a can do/will do outfit, they don't hang about. I see Phase 2 being sanctioned prior to first oil on Sea Lion, as was the case with Shenandoah.

LTT

Https://rockhopperexploration.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/2026-Final-Results.pdf

LTT

So it would seem they are making a market by taking the share price down, no real selling in quantity, no real buying in quantity. Both Eco and Borders are the same, even Serica whom had a Capital Markets Day yesterday are down 3%+.

We are just treading water until the next bit of news, but what a place to be, around 75p, that's not bad to my mind, with first oil slated for Q1/Q2 2028.

I know Divi likes to be on the negative side and this is to be taken onboard (when backed up with insight and reasoning), however Navitas are on the ball, they have already changed the refit location from the Middle East to Asia, it shows a proactive team who roll with the punches and adapt, not keep their fingers crossed that Trump will end the war and things will be back to normal! Ok, it's costing $45m, but what would be lost in income, in person hours if they waited until September or the end of the year! No, better to bite the bullet and keep everything on track.

On top of that, they have signed a MOU on another FPSO, not a small one either, 125k per day. What is not to like?

Hopefully we will get some more insight into what's going on at the AGM, and as always it will be a good chance to ask the board face to face.

LTT

It would be good if such articles stated the 2nd FPSO bring forward increased production to 180k barrels per day, meaning 63k barrels per day to RKH, with upside.

Let’s take a moment to take that in, if Navitas go ahead with that plan, we will be producing 63k per day! We would be taken out long before then, but even to be on that track is amazing compared to just a couple of years ago!

I’m looking forward to the AGM, I cannot wait. 😊

LTT

🤔 Yes, it is a little misleading.

It's still very early days with regards to the 2nd FPSO, they have a MOU, then I presume they will need, some designs working up and FEED, basically what happened with the Aoka, so they won't need that cash until way, way down the line for the refit.

Still it is exciting and the market seems to have missed it, that a huge amount of barrels and being bumped forward, no drilling 3 years after first oil, they will just continue. I expect the rig to stay down there till the end of it's days.

LTT

That would be great Paul, we might lose 7.5% but we would gain MILLIONS of barrels being booked and brought forward by a number of years.

LTT

I cannot see it myself, unless someone tries it on sharpish. Anyone buying us out wouldn’t get much change from $1B, then they would have to pay their way on this project as the loans would be lost from Navitas. I cannot see Navitas just passing the loans across to the new partner, not when said partner would be stumping up $1B+ for RKH. Of course, it would be easier for a major to do it, they wouldn’t worry about that sort of cash, but a mid cap player, I’m not so sure.

RKH still, just about has the cash to get to first oil, a partner could come in for say 30% and share the load, there is plenty of oil for everyone, particularly if fast tracking with a 2nd FPSO, plus the partner wouldn’t be just getting 30% of RKH/Nav’s acreage, they would no doubt take 30% of PL001 also. If said partner is interested in gas, they will have more than enough on their plate to worry about taking over RKH whom are fully funded to first oil.

Just my thought on this, plus I really want Sam to hang on till first oil for himself and shareholders. It would be incredibly sad for him to give up everything when the finishing line is in sight! Although I suppose the cash he would get might sway him.

LTT

Cheers Samula,

Did I also read somewhere that the system has been overhauled and they have to make a decision within 3 years?

LTT

Seems like it’s just a ridiculous spread, is it being held around these levels 🤔

LTT

Is that just a glitch? Seems a high price to pay, surely they could have got them for under 12p at this current time. 🤔 Still not a large amount, maybe someone just put in to buy without getting a quote and got stuffed!

LTT

Hopefully the partner comes in and the shares rerate as we move towards first oil, then the partner makes an offer for an undervalued RKH, but fingers crossed at a much higher share price than today.

I wonder what is happening with OM, I seem to recall someone posted they had a video call or something. I also wonder if we can get some cash from that by first oil, or get the share price higher in 2027 so the warrants come well into play. Either way, even with the MOU on a 2nd FPSO, I cannot see a huge cash call prior to mid 2027/2028 also if RKH did a raise now, the warrant holders would be a bit put out, offering shares at say 65p and diluting their warrants, unless of course the II’s get their snouts in the trough for a 2nd helping! 🤔

It’s going to be a VERY interesting AGM, so the first question is if there is further need for funds, how will RKH get them?

LTT

Makes a lot of sense to me, check the hull, give is a scrape before heading to Singapore. Nice. 😊

LTT

P.S. Nice to see Divi pop up and cause the share price to head back northwards 🤣.

"We are delighted that the project is on track having taken the prudent decision in the light of the security situation arising from the Iran conflict to move the FPSO work from the Middle East to Asia. We are equally excited at the prospect that the development of additional barrels might be accelerated with the signing of the MOU for a second FPSO giving the opportunity to add a further 125,000 barrels per day of production to the 55,000 barrels per day from the first two phases."

The first 2 phases will be 55k per day, then IF the MOU and the 2nd FPSO comes along, it would add an further 125k per day, so they are planning to pump 180k per day from Sea Lion at this time. Of course things could change, they could drill on PL001, make a discovery and then need an even bigger FPSO, but as it stands the 2 FPSO's are going to be tied up with Sea Lion.

However, things can change on a dime with Navitas, a partner comes in, they drill on PL001 after the first 6 wells on Sea Lion and EVERYTHING could change. Exiting times are ahead, near term it should be Guyana and Africa that push the share price higher.

KR

LTT

James,

how do you get cash flow from the Aoka Mizu? It will have a capacity of 55k per day after refit and this will be taken up 100% by Sea Lion.

Navitas have signed an MOU to book another FPSO to run ALONGSIDE the Aoka, not replace it so it can be used elsewhere, that will add a further 125k per day. Maybe this will take some of any oil discovered oil in PL001 but your are jumping the gun a little, they need to drill, appraise first, apply for an EIS and submit a FDP, and then it will depend on the oil type, if it's the same as Sea Lion, which is waxy, it may be limited by how are far heated pipes can transport the oil.

Still it's exciting times ahead and I think a partner will come in to accelerate the development of Sea Lion and by default PL001 oil and Johnson gas. The new partner might be particularly keen on gas and may even bring down a 2nd rig, who knows.

KR LTT

Nice find nasty, the Hurra could be on the cards also! It’s pretty amazing that we have an FPSO about to head off for refit and a couple of options available with a MOU getting signed on another one.

It truly is an exciting development, even though the market cannot see it yet.

Just some VERY rough calculations, 63k barrels a day @ a conservative $62 a barrel, if they realise $32 a barrel for a year, that’s over $700m per year before tax. You can adjust up are down depending where you think the oil price will be at a future date.

Of course that is years away, but not as far off as first planned. Once they have first oil on Sea Lion, if they want to carry on drilling, they could have the FPSO in refit and ready to rock and roll for mid 2029/30! Start it producing and adding wells, increasing production as they go along. A bit like Shenandoah, they got the FPS in place and are adding on further wells increasing production.

To do this though they either need a partner to come in or take out RKH. I wonder if RKH will issue a new report to reflect the 63k barrels a day and the resources they will tap 🤔. If they do it soon, it might imply the For Sale sign is going up!

LTT

That’s a heck of a purchase, either someone is confident or they are planning to cash out 🤔 I wonder which it is. They are tradable from the 27th, however that wouldn’t stop the buyer selling shares bought at a much lower level.

Interesting 🧐

LTT

I read on Bluewaters website the following about the Munin;

“The high flexibility of the FPSO is proven

at the Xijiang and Huizhou projects,

where the FPSO operated for more than

3 years on full Dynamic Positioning

with oil production rates exceeding

90,000 bbl/d. Presently, the FPSO is

at anchorage near Labuan, Malaysia,

directly available for redeployment.”

It’s not a huge jump from 90k+ to 120k maybe with some topside work if they have the space. After all, the Aoka is getting work done to take it to 55k from the current spec of 30k per day 🤔.

I think this is only going to move forward at a pace if a partner comes onboard. Navitas, although making a load of cash now, are spreading themselves a bit thin with Eco and JHI deals. As announced they have taken up the option with Eco off Africa and the are looking at a work program with Eco in Guyana. I believe 99% a partner will come into the Falklands for a share in the whole of the Falklands taking 25/30% from Navitas. Hopefully not taking us out in the process, waiting until first oil and the commissioning of the next FPSO, and thus upping our value considerably.

LTT