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I suppose you could look at the current situation like the discovery of Sea Lion wayback when, there was only a rerating of the stock when the news came in that they had oil, then value increased as further details came out that it wasn't Oil to Water, but a discovery!
So the market as you say is right, all the way up to the point when they have got it wrong, then they may try and spook holders out of shares to get on the right side of things, but for those of us who stick firm, we could make a tidy sum.
But of course you are right, Mr market is aways right. But they can be blindsided by any number of events, such as FID; Funding news; RIG or FPSO getting booked; OM result coming in within a couple of months after January. All are Black Swan events that the market cannot be prepared for, so while we wait, the share is priced where it is, as if none of these events are going to occur.
Regards
LTT
Hi Happy,
I have to concur with your sentiment, we are currently priced at 30% of the ward, so that means all the appraisal drilling, the 100's of millions spent on Sea Lion and the surrounding acreage, the seismic, the license's, the fact Navitas is funding us to first oil bar a bit of small change (small change in OM comes in that is), is worth zilt, nada, nothing, a bit fat ZERO.
Quite amazing when you think about it, we are sat on an oven ready development that can be up and running, producing oil for $1.3B and yet we are sat at 30% of the OM award!
LTT
Godders, capital raise!?!?!? Why would they need to raise capital, they have the OM they can sell off if need be, plus they have the warrants getting cashed in between now and Christmas.
You cannot tell me folk are going to leave free money just to spite RKH! Anyone who bought more shares and have warrants will take them up or buy and then sell pocketing the difference, they would be crazy not to.
So no need to scaremonger with a Capital Raises Imminent.
Regards LTT
Hi Danger,
that's a good point, if Sam sold off the OM award at say 30p in the pound, we would be looking at receivng 75m+. I seem to recall Harbour Lit having a sliding scale for their cut, don't quote me but is was something like 55/45 or 65/35 up to 100m and then over that their cut reduced further.
So it will be interesting if there is an offer on the table, would Harbour Lit, accept say 45% of 75m approx 34m or would they buy the award from RKH at a better rate, or offer to fund the enforcement through the courts (presuming the annulment fails) for 5% or 10% more of the pot?
LTT
There isn't a bit more action here with the Navitas team currently in the Falklands! No discussion of what they are there for, not insight from those on the ground.
Why would Ian and his team go all that way? Not to just see the penguins and try some local squid! If it was just to see this dock and facilities surely Ian would send down just one of the team to have a scout around, take some snaps and report back. What could they be doing that requires them all to be there?
Anyone got any ideas?
Regards LTT
Godders, would you mind pointing out the dates of the “Repeated diilutions”.
I have been part of the most recent one where I took up my shares and warrants so I’m effectively standing still with regards to dilution, but as I only started buying back into the dream in 2020 just before Covid, when PMO looked like they might get it over the line, I may have missed all those dilutions taking place.
Would you mind enlightening me. Many thanks
LTT
Decidedleaverage,
I wouldn’t start betting, you track record is not that good is it! You bet an RKH and look how that’s turned out, you got stuck here, too scared to sell up and move on. Trolling on and on, blaming everyone but taking none of the responsibility for your own actions.
I’ve bought some dog shares in my time, but I’ve taken the hit and moved on, it smarts, it stings when I think about the stupid trade I made, when I think how I got sucked in to buy more. But you know what, it’s a relief to just take the loss and move on. Life’s too short.
LTT
That's great news Jock, the main 3 are going, but probably just heading there and back to see how far it is! To maybe see some penguins and go squid fishing, nothing more sinsiter than that I imagine.
After all why else would the Chief Operations Officer, Vice President of Subsurface and Logistics, and Infrastructure Manager need to go? As by all accounts Navitas aren't doing anything, they are not announcing anything so they are no doubt just going through the motions, pushing papers around and sending the guys down on a fools errand.
Gosh aren't those 3 guys going to feel stupid when they cotton on that Navitas's plan all along was to do nothing!
;-)
Many thanks again Jock.
LTT
Hi Jock,
thanks for the heads up, most appreciated. I wonder what they are visiting for? They did the big presentation earlier this year to get the Falklands people on board with Gideon doing his thing and talking up the project. But why would they head down there again so soon?
Very interesting indeed.
LTT
Always good to have someone to point the finger at, make the enemy and to rile people up, makes them blind to the fact that their issues are closer to home!
Bit like a small number of posters on here who point the finger at the board rather than take on any of the responsibility for their own actions.
Still, it will all be a thing of the past soon hopefully.
LTT
Hi Flipper56,
Suppose that is why Navitas is looking to get producing in 2026, get in on the upward trend in oil prices, get a footprint in the Falklands then build on that.
Of course I hope oil doesn’t spike up so high at it will be another boom and bust scenario, a $80 to $100 range would be better for everyone.
Looking forward to the new board members arrival week after next, would be as good a time as any to give an update on what they are doing on the OM front particularly as Simon Thomson has experience on arbitrations.
Now all we need is some big news from Navitas to bump up the share price before December and the rest of the warrants will fly off the shelves, then onwards and upwards into 2024 with FID and OM annulment result!
What do we think the next news from Navitas will be, partner coming on board? RIG/FPSO letter of intent? Funding secured? Of do we think Navitas will keep quiet for now and then have a blowout of news rather than drip feed?
LTT
Sorry meant the OM 250m+ Euros, it should be ratcheting up nicely now, possibly more than 1.5m Euros per month, it has to add value to any part we sell off to a 3rd party, more so once the annulment goes in our favour.
LTT
Well, I'd like to think we will hear something in October, as the new board members will arrive from the 1st October so imagine there will be a board meeting to welcome them shortly after and then a plan of attack with regards to going after the annulment money.
LTT
Page,
how can you say the "Farmout advanced", the last word from the company was in June where they said,
"The positive conclusions from this work are currently being shared with potential industry collaborators. This includes some of the companies that have previously engaged with us, along with those who are considering the project for the first time. This phase of farm-out activity will continue over the coming months."
We are getting to 4 months and not a sniff of a partner coming onboard, so either they are running a tight ship or they are wanting to keep too much of Darwin that no fish are biting. Better to have a deal with a smaller percentage than try to keep a hefty slice and get no takers. Don't get me wrong, I want this to happen, but without a farm-in this is going nowhere fast.
Hopefully there will be a update soon with some firm news, even the hint of someone coming onboard and this will fly, otherwise we will have to wait for Navitas and RKH news and catch on to their coat tails.
LTT
Hopefully that will be the peak for oil prices and it will bounce around in the $80 to $90 range going forward. Too high and we get demand destitution and too low we get projects get kicked down the road!
$80 to $85 would be the sweet spot to make Sea Lion and ongoing development (once the torch paper it lit) happen. Plus once there is a footprint in the Falklands the cost saving should kick in that should bring the lift costs down even further.
All we need now if for Gideon to get out his matches and get this party started.
LTT
Morning Mike, yes you are right, but in inflation runs at 10% for the next 10 years we are all in trouble, I won’t be worrying about whether RKH gets their cash or not! LOL
LTT
Hi donalb,
Thanks for pointing that out, so the Euro interest rate is an average for the year! Still even 7% isn’t too shabby I think I read somewhere that an interest rate of 7% would double your money every 10 years. So 10 years from now if interest rates stay at this level ROI will owe us €500m + Euros!!!!!!
Of course hoping we can get some cash long before then, or cash in part of the award. Still you can see the incentive to take on that debt for someone playing the long game. What would it cost in lawyers once the arbitration goes in our favor to take ROI through the courts in New York, UK etc? €3/€4m ? Pretty sure RKH and their lawyers will have their eye on some assets to make ROI squirm.
Anyway, back to the main event, when will Navitas announce the next steps, or more to the point, when will they no longer be able to keep a lid on what is happening behind the scenes.
Regards LTT
In case anyone missed it, the ECB just put up interest rates to 4% so we are now earning 8% interest on the money ROI owe us. With these rates set to be higher for longer, the cash is really racking up now.
With the above in mind, it must make the saleable value to a third party higher, also should the Tribunal rule in our favour, which I'd like to think is pretty much odds on with ROI not communicating with RKH or their lawyers, the saleable value will be higher still. Credit where credit is due, well done Sam and the board for sticking with it.
LTT
Well, if Navitas can keep to the self imposed timeline, there should be a good few of us still around to reap the rewards.
Interestingly I was ready about Cambo, a 170m barrel field discovered in 2002. On the doorstep and yet still up in the air! Sort of makes Navitas, Sealion and RKH look like they are galloping along!
LTT
Morning Decidedleaverage,
I’m am just wondering what you recommendation is with this share as you are so vocal to the negative? Could you please advise what one should do in the following scenarios.
So as a new investors looking at RKH for the first time, should I just walk on by?
As a long term holder like yourself should I hold because I’m too scared to sell if RKH comes good?
As a holder of warrants that I can make 25-30% on by buying and then selling straight to market. Should I take up the free money or not give RKH the cash just to spite them?
As a holder who bought in at 8p and 10p, so basically already up, should I get rid as the shares because they are just going nowhere, as you say and invest elsewhere?
So what would you advise? I know what you would do, hold on because you can’t face the loss and too scared to sell. But I would be very interested to know?
Regards LTT