Member Info for longtermthinker

A slow burn will suit me, FPSO head off to refit and we get into the high 70’s, rig sets sail in October this year (never thought I would be saying that, THIS YEAR!!!) we move into the high 80’s to mid 90’s, then as the FPSO arrives in the Falklands we head over £1-£1.20+ in prep for first oil. No fireworks, just a steady upwards trend.

If oil is hovering around $75-$80 at that time, we might see even higher prices. Of course there is the chance of a partner coming in before then which could put a rocket under the share price, but until then, slow and steady is just fine.

LTT

They brought down a load of kit and spare parts, Navitas planning ahead as usual, why should we be surprised! Cheer’s Mogger.

LTT

They will no doubt take a leaf out of Navitas’ book as per their recent RBL, it would make sense to pay off the expensive loan from Navitas, with possible cheaper RBL with a little extra to give them some breathing room.

LTT

Divi, how do you get to a 1-2 years delay in first oil, from the link Mogger shared, everything seems to be on plan, if not ahead of plan! So what do you see as reasons for such a big delay?

Of course anything can happen and I always imagined it could possibly slip into 2H 2028, but with a rig heading down to start drilling December this year, 50-60 days per producer, that means the first 6, to get ready for the Aoka’s arrival might be done and dusted by Oct/Nov 2027. 🤔

I’d be interested to know your reasoning.

LTT

News must be coming, you don't entice Israeli II's into the fold without some kind of promise! They will have got a heads up on what is to come, they won't have left it to chance!

Imagine if Gill had got them onboard and then Navitas said, "Actually, we are having 2nd thoughts!" or Guyana didn't extend. All of Gil's credibility would be shot, there would be no getting back from such a disaster.

LTT

Well, the exec has put his money where his mouth is, putting in over £120k into a penny share is either crazy or foolish, unless he has a warm and toasty feeling that there may be a farm-out or bid in the offing in the next couple of months.

I am more inclined to a buy-out/takeover rather than a farm-in, as then there won’t be the hassle of waiting for Borders to raise cash for the 15-25% they are left with on any deal, to pay thier share of appraisal/exploration wells.

Surely bigger players would see what happened with Argos and more recently RKH, being forced to dilute and would want to avoid such a situation if they are big enough and have cash. Carrying smaller players might not be on the cards in the Southern Basin. Still it’s all getting very interesting.

LTT

My purchase this morning has been recorded as a sell. Hoping to buy a few more before the break-out, surely someone has to be interested now boots are on the ground, the Heliport and the Temp dock are getting sorted and the Hotel should be breaking ground any time, if not started already! With all the stuff getting sorted for a rig arriving in the Falklands December, maybe sooner.

How much longer can this be below 10p 🤔

LTT

Thanks a lot r1234 lufc4eva, rub it in why don't you! 😉

Just called Barclays AGAIN and got the same spiel, they are waiting for information from the registrars as to the excess allocations and they need to cross the T's and dot the i's before they can update my account. I mentioned that many folk have received their allocated, excess and had funds returned. They can trade their shares and buy more, meanwhile I am waiting. They couldn't explain why other brokers could do it quicker. 😡

I'm not very happy to say the least. I going to write a letter of complaint as it's not good enough, shares have been submitted to the market on the 21st, even Sam got his straight away, but for me, and anyone with Barclays it's now going to be Feb before we get ours and who knows when we will get the unused excess funds back!!!!!!

LTT

Actually just 9p but it's a start.

LTT

Oooooph somebody just paid over 9p for 750k maybe, maybe this is the start of our turnaround!

LTT

Nice one Mogger, also further down the feed there is a team meeting pic from a month ago with Navitas and Bluewater. It’s all kicking off and has been for some time 😊👍

LTT

Morning Buffit,

Yes that’s where I first heard about it, over on Borders, and I also tried googling but found nothing. I suppose it could have been a private presentation, invite only to II’s and brokers, but seems strange that afterwards there is no price action. Were they not impressed?🤔

I am thinking this is going to be like one of JPDM’s rubber band theories , that RKH will be unloved for the next 18 months, drift around the low 60’s to mid 70’s up and down, then as the FPSO arrives in the Falklands, TWANG, the stretch has become too much between the price of where we are at that time and the price we should be, then a re-rated, as folk realise that RKH is about to have cash coming in.

LTT

Does anyone know anything about a presentation that happened yesterday. Apparently Borders and RKH were there and others! A Zeus Energy conference or something 🤔

Not that it’s done any good, no rush to buy or updated brokers notes flying off the presses LOL.

LTT

Still nothing from Barclays 😡 still showing 0 allocated 0 excess I cannot understand how others have got their shares and are able to trade them!

I suppose one saying grace is once the cash is released back to me, looking at the share price, I might be able to get some RKH sub 70p, whom would have thought it with FID in the bag; FPSO heading for refit and a rig booked and heading down to the Falklands possibly from Oct/Nov.

LTT

So did we get to the bottom of if the Zeus energy conference was happening today? Judging by the share price of Borders and RKH, they haven't presented yet or they didn't impress anyone!🤔

Borders and RKH's time will come, it will be a slow burn for RKH but should be a real POP for Borders when the news drops. Think how ECO reacted to Navitas getting involved. Not saying it will be Navitas, but anyone doing something similar would put a firecracker under the share price.

LTT

Hi Much,

I would imagine that any weakness below 70p and the cash will go into RKH, after all, anyone who was going to buy at 53p and over subscribe for a load more, was most likely doing it for the longer term, not to just flip them.

As you say, with the Lassonde Curve showing the way to first oil; news of the FPSO heading for refit; the rig setting sail maybe October this year; a possible partner coming onboard OR a take out offer raising it's head, plus any retrace into the low to high 60p would be a no brainer to buy and wait for any of the above to happen. Even if only half the £30m buys into RKH, we could see 80p+.

Still there is a lot that can happen between now and the funds being returned, Trump could shout, "Pump Baby Pump " in Venezuela and the bottom drops out of the oil price, and everything is taken down with it, so nothing is certain. Maybe folk would be wise to keep some powder dry for any such eventuality.

As for me, when I actually get my allocation and my excess (damn you Barclays) , the funds could take another 2 weeks to go into my account, so I will review the situation at such a time.

LTT

Hope you are right Gus. It would be nice to get some kind of update from the company as it seems awfully quiet after last years positivity saying there were in a good position to not have to take the first offer, implying there had been some offers on the table!

Since then, silence, apart from the RNS mentioning FID on Sea Lion for Navitas and RKH.

In fact the last meaningful announcement appears to be on the Half yearly report on the 24th of September that said, among other things;

"During the first half of 2025 we have continued to move our farm out discussions forward. Darwin continues to elicit fresh and renewed interest from potential tier one industry partners and we are delighted with the progress that Houlihan Lokey, the investment bank we appointed to run the farm out process, is making."

We are now 4 months out from that RNS and nothing is forthcoming.

LTT

Currently up 5+% suppose it’s to do with confidence having just restructured their debt and giving themselves $400m + headroom.

With such a partner, RKH should be able to secure RBL once we have 6 month production under our belts.

LTT

On the Navitas website posted yesterday, Gideon and co. completes the refinancing with cash to spare, mention of Sea Lion too. 👍

LTT

I called them yesterday, still no word on when I will receive my allotted shares for trading and my excess whatever that amount will be! They couldn't give me a date on when the shares would hit my account or when i would get the refund. The person I spoke with said a vague maybe by the end of the week! Crazy really from such a big company.

Also wish I hadn't asked for 14k extra, wishful thinking on my part!

LTT