Member Info for longtermthinker

Gosh the orange guy is so petty if it’s true! The sooner he is put in his place the better, hopefully the midterms will hobble his rein.

On a different matter if news, I had to laugh when I read this below;

“Crude oil production recovery to pre-war levels could take just a few months, Goldman Sachs analysts said, adding a note of caution that recovery could also take longer than that.”

Great analysis, crude recovery in a few months…….🤔 or could take longer! 🤣

LTT

As much as I kinda enjoy you Sharkey's posts and take them with an ample pitch of salt, could you be a little less cryptic, you said back in March, is was "The beginning of the End game" and now you are saying we are moving towards the end game, but what is the end game?

Is it,

A. The end game of Navitas/RKH getting a partner?

B. The end game of RKH giving a percentage to a partner?

C. RKH being bought out at a 50% premium to the past 6 months share price average (which would be around £1.25 a share)

D. A partner coming in and then down the line, taking over RKH after first oil?

E. Navitas gets sign off on PL001 then the partner comes in for 30% over everything, plus operator ship on PL001, with a view to taking out RKH next?

You see what I'm getting at, there are so many variables, it's hard to see what you are getting at.

I know you mentioned before a 50-75% premium take out for RKH, but could that really happen? I'd be incredibly disappointed is it did.

LTT

Well when you put it like that, 50p makes a lot of sense, bring it on, hopefully before we have to raise some more cash to keep the lights on, although more importantly so that we can afford to pay for the licence extension.

LTT

Thanks JungleVIP,

cannot understand the drop, this isn't like the previous offer, there are 3 interested parties this time. Strange.

LTT

Would love 50p+ Pages, but who will offer the sort of cash for 250m barrels of condensate, as that is roughly all we have. Of course on paper Darwin West looks a dead cert to come in, but nobody in their right mind would include that in any bid. Maybe a token gesture for the whole acreage and the tax losses, maybe even work in some back costs, but a bidder will try to offer the minimum saying, "But you haven't even flow tested", "Only one discovery" etc, etc.

Any bid should be north of 20p, that's what I am holding out for, anything above that it's happy days, but it will be all down to what the larger holders will accept, if they are happy to walk away tomorrow with 25p a share, the rest of us won't have a say, we wouldn't have the vote to stop it.

LTT

I noticed the offer last year was 7.46 pence in cash, can we expect a similar offer this time around or will it be more due to the recent higher share price and the Middle East issues?

If and it's a big IF, UKGov relaxe the EPL even a little or at least allow new licenses, the value of the company could be higher! 🤔

A MC of £6 seems a little cheap to me.

LTT

Up 3%+ today as of this message.

I wonder if Beacon have some offers in for Shenandoah or maybe Navitas have also put up 15% and are about to get cashed up. 🤔

LTT

Sorry Mirasol,

got the meaning of you post the wrong way around, I just realised you are talking about II investors, not oil companies buying into RKH. I understand what you mean by that.

LTT

I cannot imagine anyone would buy into RKH either way, Navitas will be the one they take 30% of. Navitas cannot talk about bringing in a partner and then offer up a percentage of RKH to seal the deal, or at least I would hope not!

Navitas getting sign off on PL001 will be the key, they will have a big bit of cake to slice up, loads of targets and with the gas inJohnson, it's a win win for a deep pocketed partner whole wants gas.

As you say, the economics of Sea Lion aren't effected, so anyone coming onboard would do their sums on the cost of getting oil out, which is below $30 a barrel, cheaper that a lot of other places; the tax regime, more favorable than a lot of other places, and on an internal longer term oil price forecast, maybe $50-$60 a barrel 🤔 . Anything above that will be gravy. I seem to recall I read somewhere that Shenandoah was sanctioned with an oil price of $58 a barrel, so at current oil prices they will be awash with cash on their unhedged production.

LTT

I was chatting with my daughter last night and she was asking what was the saying about a “Storm clouds, coming, horizon!?!?!?!” . I suggest the “Calm before the storm” or “A perfect storm”.

I got to thinking this morning, after all these years of getting to the brink only to fall at the last hurdle, anti oil sentiment; UKEF backing away; oil price crashes; Covid; partner collapsed etc, are we heading into the opposite of a Perfect Storm? If of course there is such a thing. 🤔

Folk are realizing oil and gas are here for decades; majors are paring back their renewable footprint and looking for new resources; even if Iran opens the Straits tomorrow oil will average $70+ for a couple of years even with demand destruction. Not to mention then need for alternative routes for oil going forward, Iran now knows it can hold off the US and close the straits, unfortunately the hate between US, Israel and Iran is going to simmer away for decades.

However, like Covid, once things got back to some semblance of normality, everything kicked off. Same will happen this time. We could end up getting into first oil in the $80 per barrel. How quickly would that pay back our loans to Navitas, even without RBL.

So, onwards and upwards, thank goodness Navitas have secured lots of kit and services.

LTT

Maybe a partner might just take us over the edge Croft of £1.50+.

Sure the Aoka setting sail or the rig contract getting signed, will all be good, but they are just things that we all know are going to happen, great to hear, but hardly a surprise. Same with the Heliport, Hotel, Temp dock, they are all happening as we speak, so no real blockbuster news from that.

Another player coming onboard, now that will put a cat amongst the pigeons, of course it depends who it will be and how things will change, plus the when. Will it be after first oil, next year, after the rig sets sail, or will it be sooner so the partner can sign up to some extra drilling on PL001 🤔

Due diligence takes time, but then, the same was said about the FPSO, years of negotiations would need to be done, and yet it was all in hand. Maybe the partner has been on the hook for some time and due diligence is all but complete, they are just waiting for Navitas to get PL001 into the fold, to sweeten the deal and then they come onboard.

Answers on a postcard please!

LTT

yeah, excellent call croft and it’s only mid week. wonder if we will break 90p by may 🤔

it seems the folk on here saying the war with iran will drag on were right also. trump gets to back down saying it’s ****stan’s idea, however it shows the us is being played by iran. i cannot see how this is going to end anytime soon and how the oil price isn’t $120+

soon the cracks are going to start to show. i just hope starmer isn’t out and mad millie takes over the reins, heaven help us all if that happens!

ltt

Oh, sorry about that, well if hit almost new highs yesterday then.

:-)

LTT

Up almost 3.75%

Hopefully there will be some updates on the Aoka, Rig, PL001 deal closing, then they can crack on with getting a partner in, cut up that big cake of PL001 and the shared RKH acreage (with is roughly 2.5 times bigger).

What partner would be up for taking 30% of the whole shooting match, maybe even taking over as operator of PL001 so they can sort out the gas and tie-back any oil to the Sea Lion northern hub, whilst Navitas and RKH get on with the Northern, Central and Southern developments in the north Falklands basin.

LTT

It's very fancy indeed. It puts RKH to shame, even Border and Southern has a more professional looking website.

I think the board need to raise our profile a little or a lot as we gallop towards first oil.

LTT

I will be there, but I’m wondering if it might be standing room only this year, it’s not a big space.

I am pretty sure there will be at least double the number of attendees at this years AGM. The cricket club could handle that amount from memory but if it’s much more than that they may need to secure another venue. They have a bit of cash in hand so I am expecting hobnobs, chocolate ones, on both side! 🤣

LTT

Pages,

Shell and many other majors have assets in Argentina, they are not going to risk losing them. I think we need to look elsewhere.

LTT

That the news of the opening on the straits and the oil price coming down knocks 5% of our share price and many others, LOL.

We are not even producing and 2 years away from first oil. If anything we should be heading up, if the peace deal holds and things get back to some kind of normality, then we avoid a recession, we avoid demand destruction, construction and repairs can get underway. Of course the oil price will over shoot to crazy lows and no doubt they will be banging the drum about new lower oil prices etc,etc,etc, but the reality is oil is going to find a new longer term level in the 70's 80's which will do us just fine heading towards first oil in Q1 2028. Also, oil away from the middle east should be looked at more keenly as the middle east power keg is going to be simmering away for decades to come.

Current situation is for traders only, longer term we are all good.

LTT

Ooommph, somebody was keen to get in for almost 500k cash at 69.3p. You don't drop that amount of cash for it to go down!

Of course, folk can get it wrong. I am not even any where near that sort of league, so suppose what I am getting at is a £5k trade for me can be like a £500k trade to another player, I can get it wrong and so can they and it effects them the same as me, no more no less.

However, on this occasion, with the news flow to come, I think we have all got it right. Fingers and toes crossed.

LTT

Divi,

talk about the pot calling the kettle black!!!!!!!! On this BB were not long ago saying Borders would rise more than RKH percentage wise. Your posting history is not perfect, nobody's is, and when you say, "Have a look at his/her history, enough said…..ATB",

do you forget your posting history only goes back to June 2025 because prior to that you where Garbled and then prior to the you where Falklands Investor I think, telling everyone that Argos was the place to be or have your forgotten? You posting history wasn't perfect either but it has gone.

So why come on here, pick a fight and then say, "End of thread". Would you go into a pub and tell the barman spinning a yarn that he was talking bukkcacka? No you wouldn't, as you would get barred or worse. I don't always agree with what gus0 and many other posters on here, many will not agree with me, but that's no reason to be unkind and attack their posts out of the blue.

End of thread! 😉😂

LTT