Member Info for longtermthinker

Well I cannot imagine anything being announced until after FIG have signed off on Navitas taking over 65% of PL001, then they have a nice juicy package of acreage to bring in a partner, 25-30% of PL001 and the rest of the acreage with 70+ prospects to go at whilst on the road to first oil in 2 years. What's not to like?

Anyone think it could be Beacon coming onboard? They are offing 15% or Shenandoah as are Navitas, that gives them a healthy war chest to drill a couple of wells on PL001. I don't know what it costs or how long to takes to drill a well in the Gulf, but with drill ships rates, I would imagine you could get 2 or 3 in the Falklands for the price of 1 in the Gulf. Look at it this way, Navitas are already planning to add 50m+ Barrels for an extra cost of just $5m, how many more nearby targets are they going to add on, or can pick off to tie back to Sea Lion and the FPSO?

It really does show what HUGE potential the whole acreage has, which is currently shared between Navitas, RKH and Eco.

LTT

In English :-)

LTT

All the more reason to have a partner involved, Sea Lion, the surrounding acreage, PL001, it is too big for Navitas and RKH (whom are along for the ride) to go it alone, a bigger player has to come in, with cash and light a firecracker. They have an opportunity to go at this on multiple fronts for someone with deep pockets. Plus as was mentioned, Navitas are thinking to sell 15% of Shenandoah, even if they pay off a bit of debt and give some to unit holders, they will have a tidy sum left over which can be put with a partners cash to move things along quicker.

FIG, from Moggers recent finds, are hiring for such eventualities.

"Furthermore, the planned farm-in to PL001 and enhanced work programmes expected to be agreed with most licensees this year mean that there will be significant extra work beyond the Sea Lion licence blocks."

LTT

I think Jimmy makes a lot of sense, gas injector, log then cement off and used the well as a gas injector. It sounds like I know what I'm talking about, but of course it's only what I have picked up along the way, it would be good to get an oily persons view on this. Still it is a very cheap way of adding another 50m+ barrels, what's not to like about that.

It just shows what is around Sea Lion that could expand the development going forward and the tieback opportunities. The have a plan to expand the North, the Mid and the South down to Isobel, who knows what they will find in-between and that is just for starters, they could head into PL001 and have discoveries there also and that would put a cat among the pigeons.

LTT

Daikihaku1,

we may find more oil on Navitas' first well, they are targeting Gwendoline to add another 55m barrels at a cost of an extra $5m , that's only $1.75m RKH will have to pony up and they get a possible extra 19m barrels in the oil bank. Not bad at all.

LTT

Hi Phil,

I don't think ADB could get out of Borders even if he wanted to, with current volumes, he would crash the share price if he made a dash for the exit. There must be a bigger game being played here that nobody is aware of. Maybe Delek will come onboard as they like gas and condensate. I cannot imagine Darwin becoming a stranded asset, there is too much at stake and oil and gas is around for the next 50-100years without a doubt.

The licence extensions should be a done deal, but one cannot be 100% certain, with revenue on the cards coming from Navitas/RKH, FIG might want to cut down on the paper work, the license fees from Borders will be peanuts compared to the cash they will get in from Sea Lion. As you say I am pretty sure ADB would take on a few more shares to keep the Borders lights on, but he would have to be in the know with regards to what the future has in store to put his hand in his pocket.

I still live in hope that one day I will log in to find us at 20p+ with an offer on the table. Once can but dream. Have a good weekend.

LTT

Phil164,

I don't think so, to get the license extensions they will have to show they have funds to keep the lights on, I don't think we have/will have enough cash to do that, so they will need to raise some funds. It will be either more snouts in the trough, them saying they have to offer to larger holders to make it happen quick, or they will come to us, to put our hands in ours pockets, which would ring alarm bells for me!

It's all very frustrating, we have a great discovery, huge potential and a now province in the making to the North, and yet after all this talk of Tier1 interest here we are.

Suppose it's like the early days of RKH, they had lots of apparent interest, but when the dust settled, there were only two left standing, and only only one with a realistic offer, which was PMO and we know how pear sharped that went! Maybe our board are playing hard ball, but they are risking everything on a deal that might never happen. Look at Argos/JHI and now PL001 is going to Eco, after Navitas took 65% for very little outlay.

I am sorry to say, the same may happen here now, they are going to the wire and FIG might have had enough. They have a lot on there plate going forward without having to deal with a minnow like Borders. I imagine Navitas have made an offer, maybe some back costs and some skin in the game for say a 65% stake, with a loan to first oil and maybe some drill costs covered, but that will be it, the days of paying cash upon farm-in are long gone. If they cannot get a deal in the current climate with oil at $110 a barrel, with folk realising that even when the Iran way is over, there are going to be issues for decades, then they never will.

I do hope I am wrong, I hope they get this over the line, but we are almost into April and it's all downhill from here.

LTT

"Furthermore, the planned farm-in to PL001 and enhanced work programmes...."

I wonder what they mean by enhanced work programmes, could it mean the rig arriving earlier to drill an exploration in something in PL001? It would make a lot of sense, get the rig firing on all cylinders and the crew up to speed, iron out any kinks, etc 🤔

Haven't Eco got a carry on a drill on PL001 up to $14m, I am pretty sure I read that somewhere. Either way, we are 9 months away from the rig arriving, which would imply the rig sets sail in Oct/Nov.

I am wondering if the partner will come onboard once the deal is done with Navitas and Eco. It would make a lot of sense for Navitas to pony up 30% of the whole shooting match. Could it be Delek, they like gas also!

LTT

It could be Murphy, although they have a lot on their plate, Beacon I believe are selling a stake in Shenandoah also. so maybe they are looking to do something with the cash 🤔 it could also be Ithaca. Either way, interesting times are ahead.

LTT

Borderstothemoon, unless a big player with deep pockets comes along, farms in to Navitas for say 30% of everything, including RKH and Eco acreage and they snap up Borders for the BIG stuff that is in the Southern Basin. Lets face it, if they took out Borders and they did an exploration we on Darwin West, it comes in and the clip a couple of deeper targets, they could be looking at 1-2B barrels just for starters. This is why I cannot understand why we are getting overlooked, what happened to the Tier1 interest, particularly as Navitas have finally put the Falklands on the map.

I mean they are upgrading the dock, a supply base, a hotel, heliport that Bristow are actively hiring crew for, amoung 101 other things that are getting signed of to be ready for drilling in 9months.!!!!!!

If Harry or whoever cannot get this to the starters line with all this going on, then they need to get off the pot! They have been sat there long enough.

LTT

I know I shouldn't pay much heed to BrightSpots predictions, they should be consumed with a GOOD pinch of salt and taken as a bit of fun. But I have been thinking about someone, a bigger player as Bright suggests, coming in and taking us out in one bite sooner that first oil!

Navitas have openly said they are looking to bring in a big player, but how could they bring someone in with the offer of taking out RKH, surely that would mean RKH are in discussions not Navitas. Any sniff of a chat with a bigger player we would be over £1+ a share, and any offer would have to be 100% above that to carry any weight. But why would RKH sell up now, on the cusp of first oil and Phase 2 not far behind, possible Isobel appraisal after that. Only 2 years to wait until first oil.

Navitas giving up 30% of their share, I could see that, maybe even RKH giving 5% for some cash/carry on Isobel exploration/appraisal, maybe giving 70% of the southern acreage to sweeten the deal (so Navitas and player have a 35%/35% split with RKH keeping 30%. That would work, it underlines a value on RKH also if that should happen, it also keeps it nice a tidy, not 5% here, 15% there, etc.

With Navitas having a HUGE amount of acreage with PL001, they could entice a bigger player, whom gets in on the ground floor when other acreage comes up for grabs down the line. Also, Navitas are talking up the gas, so that would have to come into the mix with any buy-out offer!

So, to my simple mind, I cannot see a take-out coming anytime soon, I cannot see Sam, sailing us down the river, after all this time of clinging on by his fingernails. Plus would FIG go for that, Navitas and XXXX running the show 🤔. I know RKH seems to be doing very little these days, what can they do, they are along for the ride, but I just hope they are strapped in tight and hang on till first oil at least, as even the first drill could add another 50m barrels into the mix, and how much more will there be with the 30+ leads on Sea Lion alone!

LTT

Have to agree Much, there is so much information, I’m going to have to listen a couple more times, such as the pressure point throughout the basin; the 30+ new leads on top of existing; the Aoka heading to Isobel or into PL001 once the bigger FPSO comes online, which they are already having discussions about, seems unlikely the rig will take a break after the development well! The current undisclosed South Atlantic rig booked from early 2027 to late 2028 is going to be extended for sure.

Also, the first well is doing to drill deeper into another prospect of 50m barrels, it just shows how much more oil and gas is in this basin.

The other thing I picked up on was Ian saying they were so far on due to investments of $130m+ in 2024 ( i think that is what he said) securing long lead items and trees etc. They were beavering away behind the scenes long before FID. So where are they now, if Navitas work like that, are they planning drills for Isobel and PL001, working on feed for the 2nd FPSO, ordering long leads for phases 3,4 & 5 🤔.

For years the nay sayers have said, long lead items are hard to get; the FPSO will need a contract that cannot be arranged at the drop of a hat; FIG don’t have the man power to do this.

So while many have said, Navitas were 1 step behind, they have actually been 3 steps in front. It is going to be an exciting 2 years to first oil.

LTT

"Words on a page mean nothing."

And then you continue writing?!

🤣😂🤣 😂🤣 😂🤣 😂🤣 😂🤣 😂🤣 😂🤣 😂🤣 😂🤣 😂

Nice one.

LTT

I didn't tick up Brightspot, but I imagine it is one of the following,

Shell, Amerada Hess, Lundin, Lasmo, BHP Billiton, Noble Energy, Edison International, Argos, and IPC/Lundin Oil. Of course some of them no longer exist anymore, or it could be Murphy's or some other player who looked but didn't take a bite. 🤔

Still, coupled with Navitas talking of selling 15% of Shenandoah, it starts to get interesting.

Of course they will pay themselves and the unit holders a hefty divi, and pay down some debt, but maybe they are needing a war chest to drill in PL001/Isobel/Guayana/Africa. Move Sea Lion and the surrounding acreage on faster than if they were to do it A,B,C,D style, A pays for B, B plays for C etc.

A bigger player opens things up big style. I wonder whole will snap up Borders? I cannot see them being left out if a bigger players comes onboard. My money is still on Navitas, but hey, what do I know.

LTT

Maybe that is the reason for the sale, give some cash to unit holders and get together a war chest to drill.

LTT

Harel,

Where did you read that? It’s very interesting 🤔

LTT

It bodes well for the meeting. Hopefully some meat on the bones with updates all around. Fingers crossed.

LTT

Looking forward to the investor conference, it should be enlightening. I would like to hear what they plan to do with PL001 and their plans with Eco for Guyana and Africa. Don’t want them taking their eye off the ball or spreading themselves too thin. Also someone is bound to ask about the Aoka refit in the Q&A so we should get to know where it’s is headed. 🤔

Looking forward to hear what has been happening in the Falklands also, with the temp dock, heliport and the hotel. If they are ahead of schedule, maybe, just maybe they rig might arrive early to drill in PL001. If that happens we will have the excitement of an exploration well after all these years. A discovery and there will be upside here, a duster and the down side would be limited as the rig with head into development drilling for Sea Lion.

LTT

Lenbeary,

Where did you read that? I thought it was Q2 when it was released 🤔 still Q2 or Q3 doesn’t make a lot of difference, it’s happening that’s the main thing and as you say, hopefully things will have calmed down considerably by then. We should hear more about the rig by then also.

LTT

I cannot find any details, but with Aragon having done the Feed and having connections to Seatrium in Singapore it might be that the Aoka Mizu will be towed there for refit.

With troubles in the Middle East having been going on for a couple of years with various escalation’s and now of course the attack on Iran, maybe Navitas had planned for a Singapore/Indonesian refit all along 🤔.

I cannot be sure as I seem to recall reading somewhere “Refit in Middle East”, just hope it wasn’t firmed up, as it would be hard to get a slot to do the work in another location. I would imagine stuff is being done now in preparation for the Aoka arrival, so it would be difficult to switch locations at the 11th hour.

LTT