Member Info for longtermthinker

Are we going to break and hold 70p today! 🤔

It would be amazing after a fabulous run, and this is without any confirmed outcome on Guyana, no drill dates, no sign off on the JHI/Navitas deals.

I cannot help feeling we will run out of steam, and yet, Eco haven’t even lit the coal in the boiler 😳 so how can they run out of steam!

It’s all very exciting. My money is on the first drill being in PL001 next year, or maybe back end of this 🫣, but don’t hold me to it. Even in 2027/2028 between development drilling on Sea Lion would be an AMAZING result.

LTT

Morning Buffit,

I hope your right, I think you are, I’m just waiting for Navitas to get sign off on taking over 65% of PL001 and their sale of 15% of Shenandoah. A partner announcement, then I think it will all kick off IMHO.

I would be surprised if said partner took 30% of Navitas enlarged acreage and then took out/farmed into Borders to sew up the south. With a discovery and some huge prospects down there, they would be crazy not to.

LTT

I cannot help feeling that near term after PL001 deal is signed off and the license extension are given, there will be a drill on PL001 prior to Sea Lion development drilling. It would make a lot of sense, gives the drilling rig a bit of a shakedown prior to the back to back development drills and it's let them see what is in PL001 to then work on how they would appraise and tieback to an FPSO. Plus more importantly they can decide on the size of the FPSO.

Sea Lion is going to produce up to 55k per day max with the Aoka Mizu, then as they start further phases they will need to bring in a bigger FPSO and move the Aoka. However, Navitas has mentioned tie-backs to a hub, so that implies if they have something in PL001, close to Sea Lion, they could use that, but they would need something that has considerable capacity if they had Sea Lion and a similar size discovery in PL001, not to mention the other near by prospects they can tie-in as they move forward.

So, I cannot imagine they will drill 11 wells and then in 2029 drill a well on PL001 only to have a discovery and only then realise, "We are gunna need a bigger boat!", literally! The Aoka is heading for refit shortly, the feed has been done so the capacity will be set in stone, but they will need to have a idea for the capacity of the one that will replace it and the type of oil in PL001 if they are to tie-in. Hence why I feel PL001 will be drilled sooner that later. Plus Navitas are talking of a partner coming in, this will also effect us in Eco and RKH it is unlikely to be BP, but a similar big hitter and, well the share price goes into orbit with a big partner with cash and a drill in 2027.

LTT

I think this bodes well for us. Maybe not for BP to come in, our postcode still seems a little problematic for the Majors, particularly those who have assets in Argentina or are planning to have. But still it shows the bigger players are going after big Atlantic margin plays and that acreage needs some 3D seismic shooting, some reprocessing and an exploration well drilling in maybe 2028/29.

We have a discovery, 3D interpreted and further targets. We cannot be the bridesmaid for ever!

LTT

Nasty,

I wasn't saying Croft was wrong, or right, was just giving an alternate opinion, which is what these boards are all about. I respect everyones point of view, even when I disagree. Maybe there are some powers whispering in Donald's ear, using him for their own agenda. Stranger things have happened for sure.

Back to RKH, I'm with Much on his timeline.

However, I am wondering how long it will take for FIG to sign off on Navitas/JHI/Eco deals? Will they have to get the new hires into the Mineral Resources Team and up and running or will we get news before the AGM?

I see Eco have bagged a big partner with BP in Namibia, is our postcode still a worry for bigger players to allow them to come onboard? 🤔 Navitas have said they have interest so I imagine once the Navitas/JHI/Eco deals are done we should hear something, maybe we will have to wait for their sale of 15% of Shenandoah too, bids going in as we speak with maybe Blackstone selling the whole shooting match! It will be interesting to see which major buys into Shenandaoh, how much they pay, and will they take a look at the Falklands once they are partnering with Navitas.

LTT

However, Trump is destroying his Magna base, the average joe America is paying the price at the pumps, if the US does all these deal for gas to Europe, suddenly the local market loses out as Europe pays more, plus with AI server farms in the US and their energy intensive nature, how is the US going to balance exports and local demand? 🤔

To be honest, I don’t give Trump and his team of sycophants the credit of knowing what the my are doing, they are jumping from one hot plate to the next and saying it’s all part of the plan and by design.

Wasn’t Trump saying he wanted oil to be $50 which pi55ed of the shale producers? Now he says it will drop back once everything calms down and yet he has just upped the stakes. Jet fuel is running on vapours and even if the war ended tomorrow it would take 6 months + to get back to normal IF the shut ins came back online without issue, which seems unlikely.

The elephant in the room is the transit times for tankers to get the oil to market. Nobody is really taking about that.

LTT

But Phil,

All they said in September is basically what they said in May last year. Would you be happy if they said the same next month, “We are speaking with tier 1 and the bank is still running the show!”

If no deal we are heading for dilution, that’s a fact.

I am still airing to Navitas. They are selling 15% of Shenandoah, they are getting sign off on PL001. Imagine if they did a deal with us for 65% of our acreage, they could then do a deal with a major for say 30% of whole shooting match, North and South, but allow the partner to take the reins on the South as Navitas have their hands full with SeaLion and PL001.

Heck if they wanted to sweeten the deal, RKH throws in 65% on their Southern acreage for carry on a couple of drills. We might not get a load of cash in such a deal, but free carry on two wells and a well test would send our share price into orbit and raising further cash down the line upon proving up a couple of billion barrels wouldn’t be an issue.

This is the only reason I see it’s being so quiet, there is something in the offing and once Navitas has cash for 15% of Shenandoah and Pl001 is signed off by FIG, it will be game on. Possibly 😉

LTT

Gus, how can you say there is a lot going on? The last real statement from the board was a year ago, they talked about Dr Sean Guest joining the board, reducing costs, retaining a bank and attracting interest from tier one industry potential partners, ending with the statement below;

"I would like to thank all existing and new shareholders for your support. I very much look forward to the year ahead and providing further updates on our progress."

That is 11 months ago and I have heard nothing of merit since, no update on progress. So how do you know something is afoot, when there is nothing in the public domain?

Yes, we have a fabulous asset in Darwin that needs appraisal and a flow test, on paper it looks too good to overlook, and yet no-one has taken up an oven ready development that can with a FPSO and a couple of wells, be up and running and paid back in a couple of years. So if it's so simple to do, why has nobody bitten our hand off?

I think the license renewal shouldn't be a problem, why would FIG take it away now after all these years, but we will have to prove we are a going concern which will mean dilution and a raise again, and it will most likely be snouts at the trough, jobs for the boys rather than allow the long suffering to take part.

We cannot even get our heads above 10p so the warrants get taken up and thus adding some funds. With the share price at an ask of 9.22p and the world being held to ransom by Irans closure of the Straits, why is nothing happening? Why is the industry overlooking Darwin and Borders, with boots now on the ground in the Falklands and Navitas forging ahead with their plans? 🤔

I am still holding and I hope for a takeover, 50p would be like a dream, but I cannot see where it will come from and who will make an offer, surely if they have had any offers, they should have told shareholders before turning them away.

LTT

But what a return on investment for Blackstone, I cannot see such a return being forthcoming with renewables 🤔 so I cannot see them turning their backs on oil investment. But stranger things have happened and they are no doubt making hay whilst the sun shines.

Still as you say, bit of a kick in the teeth for the Beacon team if they are sold lock stock. Either way, various articles have said bids would be put in during the next few weeks so it will be interesting to see what price is paid for the production and potential in the Gulf and then work out some numbers on what Sea Lion would be worth when phase 1&2 come on line. Then work on the potential further 500m barrels and then some to have a go at, in a great fiscal regime with a Gov keen, nay needing to get oil pumping.

I cannot wait until the partner comes onboard and we get an idea of what’s what. Will the rig head down earlier to drill a couple of wells in PL001, will Isobel come into play so they can work up numbers to see if they should look to appraise/develop Isobel or head into PL001 as the next, next big thing.

As we are well aware Navitas are thinking 2 or 3 steps ahead, not standing on the back foot.

LTT

Morning Much, I think Navitas where selling possibly 15% also 🤔

https://www.globes.co.il/news/article.aspx?did=1001537854#google_vignette

You'll need to translate it but it talks of Shenandoah being valued at $10B.

So Beacon selling their 51% percent stake and Navitas selling 15% of theirs, that's one heck of a war chest, maybe for the next big thing! Of course there will be some paying down of debt, Unit holders will get a chunk, and the Israeli Gov no doubt, but there will be some left over to put into PL001 and Sea Lion.

As for RKH not existing in 18months, that's a tough one to call. We are less that 2 years from first oil with a fair wind in our sails, RKH's value should increase as we get closer. If anyone wanted to take out RKH they should have done it by now, the longer they wait the more expensive it will get.

There might be something in the comments about a bigger player waiting until the oil is flowing, as with Shenandoah, everyone can see what a proven cash cow it is, so it would make sense to wait for RKH to prove the same. Once up and running, yes the value will be more, but then a bigger player is buying out a sure thing, a major scrambling around for additional production could spend years shooting 3D, interpreting, exploration drilling, jumping through hoops and wasting billions, why not buy a producing asset with upside.

Hopefully with a drill in PL001 and Isobel to stoke the fire a little, I might consider a £3.50+ offer! 😉

LTT

Pages,

We haven’t got 400m+ barrels, hypothetically we have, but the drill only hit 240m+ in Darwin East, West would need an exploration well to add some further numbers, in fact Darwin East would need an appraisal and a flow test before anyone would offer anywhere near $3 a barrel in the ground.

Ok, the recent war with Iran has made the majors and mid caps sit up, so their might be renewed interest or more focus on Borders. But we will see, time is running out.

LTT

Think we are holding up quite well considering. Even Goldmans are saying oil will be $85 next quarter and $75 the last quarter, but with a caveat that it could be $115 in the final quarter also! LOL Talk about hedging ones bets!

Still the year end, even if the peace deal holds and things calm down, oil will be a good bit higher than everyone predicted with the oil glut and a drop to $50 but the end of 2026.

It would be great to start off a drilling campaign with oil at $75+ with just over a year to first oil, it adds considerably to RKH conservative number they put out recently. However we still have Navitas to get sign off on PL001 and then a partner come onboard, plus they have the sale of 15% or more of Shenandoah which will not only be good for them, but also us.

A partner will come in, they cannot do this alone on their A pays for B,B pays for C model. If there ever was more of an urgency to get Sea Lion up and running and the surrounding acreage, the recent war in the middle east is going to focus their minds to do so. Onwards and upwards.

LTT

Morning Marunman2,

Have dipped my toe in here, it’s quite a compelling story and all the more so with the issues in the Middle East. Got a few just under 2.4p so hopefully things will more up over the next 6-12months 😊

LTT

The oil price is down on a deal which is great news, hopefully the deal with Iran will hold for everyone’s sake. Even though the oil price has come down, it’s still well in the 90’s and will stay in the 80’s for the rest of the year. That is a lot of revenue compared to the $50 and lower predicted earlier this year!

It will take some time for everything to get back to normal. Once the realization kicks in, we will continue our upward trend to first oil. Drilling starts in possibly 8months or maybe sooner if PL001 gets a warm up drill first.

LTT

It’s laughable that that everything drops on good news that a deal may be worked with Iran, and oil is still $90+ and will be for the foreseeable future. By all accounts it will stay in the $80’s until the end of the year. It is going to take a while for everything to get back up and running to where it was.

LTT

Stevo12,

RKH just stated the following,

"The Report has reclassified volumes contained in the Sea Lion Field Northern Development Area ("NDA") Phases 1 and 2 from the Contingent Resources classification to the Reserves classification."

and the numbers they have worked on were based on some rather conservative oil prices, see below.

31 December 2026 $62.99

31 December 2027 $64.79

Thereafter $73.63

So, it isn't about now, it's about the future and the fact Navitas are motoring ahead and restating first oil early 2028.

Maybe the brokers note and the fact ISA will be topped up before the end of the financial year and getting the house in order for the new ISA allowance becoming available have all added fuel to the fire, but to have reclassified volumes into Reserves is a pretty big deal to my mind.

Also, the narrative that if the war stopped tomorrow, oil would stay pretty high for the rest of the year into 2027.

LTT

Hi Croft,

I hope you are right, with the imminent comment, if it was going to Dubai I would have expected them to have left it on the Lancaster pumping for a few more months, better than have it idle, waiting to go into dry dock, who knows when it will calm down over there in the Straits.

LTT

"Bluewater Offshore has notified its current client of the imminent departure of its Aoka Mizu floating production, storage and offloading vessel from a UK field in order for it to be upgraded for a new job in the southern Atlantic."

I know it has been said already, Sercia, have said it, RKH have said mid 2026, Navitas too, but this says "imminent" and seem to recall a poster saying they had work of a May release date. Either way it all bodes well as long as the Aoka isn't heading to Dubai for a refit!

Has anyone found anything about that?

LTT

Get 85p+ and some of the warrants might get taken up/sold into the market. This would add a little to our war chest for any extras like the $5m ($1.75m RKH share) on the first well in 2027. A small price to pay for adding another 17.5m+ barrels 😊

LTT

Mirasol,

Why would RKH want to join Navitas and Eco, they have enough on their plate with Sea Lion.🤔

Surely RKH would benefit if a partner came in and took 30% of Navitas' PL001 and their RKH/Sea Lion acreage.

Even if the new partnership only drill a couple of exploration wells on PL001, it would benefit RKH proving further prospects next door to RKH, if one is on the gas, Johnston, then that would be a bonus even though it would be years away from any possible development, by which time, RKH would have paid back the loans and be funding further development from income. I think Eco share price would be much higher upon a deal and they could raise their share of the drills.

RKH would just sit back and wait as they have a rig booked for Jan 2027 and the first well is targeting 50m+ barrels. RKH can cover that without a raise and then wait until production starts. RBL would be on the cards then, 3-6months down the line after first oil.

This is of course if RKH are still around 🤔