Member Info for longtermthinker

Well that explains why any drop below 80p warrants price they get hovered up. Great news for everyone who buys and holds any dips below 80p, well done BB and Backagainbaby for following suit with Exodus. They are no doubt thinking this is going a good deal higher over the next 18months to first oil, and thus if they can get any below 80p they will snap them up, knowing they can sell their warrants into a rising price in the future and pocket the difference.

LTT

How the share price has dipped a few times now below 80p but has been met with buying pressure, someone who does charting can no doubt explain this.

Seems a bit of an overreaction to the oil price as we are not producing until 2028 and even then anything above $45 and we are in the money, even down to $28 we break even and a HUGE amount of production elsewhere would be losing money big style below $40 so it wouldn’t stay there for long.

There are still hundreds of tankers trapped in the Straits or waiting outside. Mr Market underestimates how long it will take to fill them and get them underway again, even if a deal was done tomorrow, which seems unlikely due to the Uranium, that of course Trump said was obliterated in June last year, under tonnes of rubble, job done! And yet here we are, stopping the Iranians and their weapons of mass destruction! Now where have I heard that before! 🤔

Don’t get me wrong, I’d like there to be peace and things to get back to normality, but with Trump, what is normal 😳. Hopefully the oil price comes down to around $75, of course it will effect profits of producers and no doubt effect their share price, but it might just bring us back from the brink of a world recession. Probably the oil price will overshoot in a knee jerk reaction upon peace, but where is will settle is hard to tell.

LTT

Redich,

So the Aoka has stopped processing crude from Lancaster? If so that’s great news, then I presume it will be towed to the shipyard , wherever that is by tugs, am I right in thinking that, it cannot cruise under its own steam 🤔

Thank for sharing

LTT

That would be a perfect scenario, they head down to PL001, drill a couple of wells that come in, then drill the first well on Sea lion that is targeting 55k barrels, that also comes in, and it's happy days, the news would really put the Falklands on the map.

However, as has been pointed out, if the rig has been stacked hot/cold for the past year it would need a good looking at and it's 5 years cert. They might be cutting it a bit fine. I think Mogger posted that the contract had been moved back a month to start in January 2027, this could be due to it going in for a touch and brush up before heading down in Nov/Dec 2026, if indeed the contract starts in Jan. Hopefully January is not when it goes on the clock and we have 6-8 weeks of mob before it starts drilling. Surely the best time to get cracking would be in the peak Summer months of December to Feb/March. 🤔

LTT

That would be a perfect scenario, they head down to PL001, drill a couple of wells that come in, then drill the first well on Sea lion that is targeting 55k barrels, that also comes in, and it's happy days, the news would really put the Falklands on the map.

However, as has been pointed out, if the rig has been stacked hot/cold for the past year it would need a good looking at and it's 5 years cert. They might be cutting it a bit fine. I think Mogger posted that the contract had been moved back a month to start in January 2027, this could be due to it going in for a touch and brush up before heading down in Nov/Dec 2026, if indeed the contract starts in Jan. Hopefully January is not when it goes on the clock and we have 6-8 weeks of mob before it starts drilling. Surely the best time to get cracking would be in the peak Summer months of December to Feb/March. 🤔

LTT

I think it will need it's 5 years certification as it could retire down there.

I know it's currently only booked for 11 wells, but it seems likely it will have a break after the 11 to drill on PL001, maybe 3 or 4 exploration/appraisals, then get straight on with phase2 drilling. It would make perfect sense and be more cost effective longer term than letting the rig head off elsewhere, then have to pay mob to get it back again at a later date.

The only other reason I can see it being let go, would be if they planned to bring a deeper water rig to have a go at Darwin in the south as the Endevour is currently not set up for deep water.

Then in 2030 bring back a rig for phase2 drilling, but still cannot see them working like that, particularly if they get a partner this year/next, they will just want to crack on.

LTT

I think volume says otherwise gus0 I'm afraid.

Cannot understand why, unless it's going to come out of the blue, similar to the Eco deal with Navitas. Not saying it will be Navitas, but a mid cap could just do the deal and announce. FIG have been hiring new bods to cope with the workload increasing. Fingers crosse.

LTT

Hi Mick,

Yes, that’s one of the reasons I think the rig could head down earlier if a bigger player comes onboard, the rig is currently booked for 11 or 12 wells, but it would be pretty easy for a partner to come in and add on a few drills before and after in PL001. I think the rig is currently hot stacked so it would be available. Although one issue is Eco won’t get sign off on the JHI deal until Q3, so can Nav and partner book a rig without knowing who will pay 35% of the drill (although I believe JHI were carried up to a point on drilling). 🤔

It’s interesting times ahead that’s for sure 😊

LTT

Hi James,

I was aware the Aoka is an FPSO, the rig is dues to arrive Q1 2027 to drill 6/7 development wells in preparation for the Aokas arrival late 2027 for connecting up. Then the rig will carry on drilling the other 6 development wells to increase production to the Aoka capacity with should be around 55K per day.

As for the Shenandoah drill ship, that seems busy till mid 2028 and has been booked by Beacon, but there could be plenty of options on rigs for Guyana, maybe from Africa they could tootle across. I am hoping Nav/Eco drill Guyana first, that would be the game changer for sure. 👌

LTT

James, the Aoka is heading for refit shortly, then its due to arrive in the Falklands late 2027 for first oil from Sea Lion Q1 2028, then a further 6/7wells are drilling to bring the production hopefully up to 50-55k per day, which will be the Aokas capacity. Of course things can always slip a little but that is the current plan.

I think we might get a couple of drills using the rig either before (fingers crossed) or when the Aoka is being connected up prior to the further development drilling of the next 6 wells, from Q1 2028.

Of course, as you say, if a bigger player comes onboard there is no reason they cannot get their own rig, but it would be more sensible and cost effective to use the one that’s onsite.

LTT

Sorry I meant to say IT WOULD BE GOOD THE GET………

LTT

Oooph you are jumping the gun a bit there Just I afraid. Eco won’t have approval till Q3, even if they drilled an exploration well with Navitas on PL001 this year/early next prior to the development drilling on Sea Lion, there is no way they could appraise and drill development wells on any discovery until at least 2028/29. Even if they got a 2nd rig down there to drill alongside the rig drilling Sea Lion, the FPSO will have a capacity of 55-60k barrels a day tops, so it wouldn’t be able to cope with production you are talking about from a discovery in PL001.

However, it wouldn’t be good to get a couple of explorations in, that way when the swap out the Aoka in 2030, they will know whether the Aoka will move across to PL001, or they can tie-back to a bigger FPSO that has the capacity to service Sea Lion and PL001.

I do like your thinking though 😊

LTT

Or maybe Trump is just getting the oil price higher so his buddies can open shorts for when he posts that a deal has been done!

Crazy times, the US has to be hurting also!

LTT

I don’t think Trump will care, the US will have achieved their goal of diverting oil and gas way from the Middle East. The US has benefited more than most with LNG contracts. Yes they are hurting, but once they open the Straits, the US will recover more quickly than everyone else. It will take quite some time for the Middle East, Europe and Asia to recover.

Trump will pull out and leave everyone else to pick up the pieces and call it a victory, just you watch.

I see he’s being spouting off again that Iran is on its knees, can we believe anything from anyone these days! Just hope they do a deal soon, then Trump can get his application in for the Noble Peace prize, having brought the war with Iran to an end! 😳🙄😉🤣

LTT

We keep trying to head sub 80p and almost make it, then there is a U-turn. What we need is something to get us over 90p and then the warrants start to look good, although I cannot see any being cashed in until we’re over £1.10+.

If not, I imagine we will see sub 80p on news that the straits are open and a deal has been done. I know we are a couple of years from first oil, but any excuse these days to take us down would be taken advantage of. BB_hoppa, you might just get your 78p if you are lucky, but don’t think it would last long as there will be a few folk topping up at such a time, particularly with development drilling/rig setting off just over 6/7 months away and the first drill targeting 55m+ barrels.

LTT

Maybe Phil,

the investors presentation was almost 1 year and 1 month ago and then the Final Results came out on the 19th of May in 2025, so the next couple of weeks would be about right.

Hopefully there is some meat on the bones, otherwise can they get away with saying they are still talking to Tier 1 partners and they will need a raise to keep us a going concern and so we can renew the license 🤔

Surely they would need to give us more than that, after all this time, with Navitas and RKH having secured funds and FID-ing Sea Lion phase 1 and 2.

Fingers crossed.

LTT

Well I for one hoped this mess in the Middle East gets sorted sooner than later. Either way it will take quite some time to get back to any kind of normality, but the sooner it happens the less chance of recession/demand destruction and we might hit the sweet spot of $80+ oil as we start producing with the world recovering from the Middle East fallout 🤔.

I cannot help feel that Trump and the US are happy to drag this out a little longer so they can secure deals on energy exports! Bit like as WW2 came to an end, I’m not sure how true it is, but I seem to recall my father telling me something about them dragging is on a little whilst they switched their factories over from weapons to consumer items they shipped over to the UK and Europe.

LTT

Https://www.worldoil.com/news/2026/4/23/oil-majors-boost-exploration-as-300-billion-barrel-supply-gap-looms/

Another reason why I cannot see Borders and Darwin being a stranded asset. 4 big wells came in dry, why would anyone leave a huge condensate discovery with massive upside 🤔

Interestingly, someone posted on the RKH BB about a Navitas new hire, someone who has spent the past 10+ years working on a gas/condensate discovery of the coast of Australia. Make of that what you will, a partner coming into Navitas and farming in to Borders at the same time ?

Stranger things have happened.

LTT

I believe any gas produced from Sea Lion with the oil will be separated and re-injected back into the reservoir to help maintain pressure and lift if that is the correct terminology. Also because FIG have said they don’t want any gas storage or infrastructure on the Falklands.

Of course that could all change, Gideon is a big personality and FIG, might over time be won over to the idea. A small footprint that creates jobs, gives the island gas, and gas being a “greener” energy solution for export, it might just sway them in the future. But as off today, the gas goes back in, hence needing a big, deep pocketed partner if the plan to develop Johnson with an FLNG set up.

LTT

Yeast if I could vote that up twice I would 😊

LTT