Member Info for longtermthinker

Again, I'm afraid it's old news, the Aoka is heading away from Lancaster field in Q2 for refit then hopefully being towed down to the Falklands for Q4 2027.

The Noble Endeavors has an undisclosed contract in South America from Dec 2026 until May 2028, so if Navitas want to have a few pokes in PL001 they would be wise to tag on a few from May 2028 with the rig in the area. I'd prefer before, but maybe they would be cutting a bit fine to get it down for September with all the stuff needing doing in the Falklands prior.

LTT

Bit of a pants article, the Aoka Mizu will not be drill anything, it's heading for refit to up it's FPSO capacity to 50k + barrels per day. I believe a Noble rig is earmarked for drilling the initial 11+ wells, although I can see the rig being down there for 5 years at least.

LTT

And it looks like a lot more to come!

I cannot help feel that the rig that is booked for Sea Lion will come down earlier now, it's due for production drilling in 2027, which means it should mob down late 2026, however, it would make a lot of sense to get down earlier for a few exploration wells on PL001 to get the rig crew up to speed for the development drilling. It would also make sense from a timeline point of view, if they don't drill before, they would be waiting until 2029, so better to do it sooner, see what they have got and make a plan of what to do with any discovery. This seems more Navitas' style and would mean we have the excitement of a drill or two this year! I almost cannot believe it!

Well done Gil and team, he has talked the talk for many years, but now he is walking the walk. Exciting times are ahead, that's for sure.

LTT

Phil,

I get what you are saying, but after talking the talk, he hasn't said a word in 3 months, they need funds to be a going concern and for FIG to extend the licenses, so I am giving them the benefit of doubt, but with all the deals done with Eco and JHI, it just seems strange that there is nothing from HB.

Maybe you are right, a deal could be in the offing, Eco/Navitas deal came out of the blue, so did Navitas/JHI and the recent Eco/JHI deal, there wasn't a sniff in the air, so I live in hope.

LTT

Seems like Navitas and Eco might get the rig down earlier to give it a shake down, iron out the kinks, flush out any gremlins, prior to development drilling on Sea Lion. It would make a lot of sense, get the crew firing on all cylinders and up to speed. I think it will possibly be one of the criteria of the 5 year extension, a drill or two on PL001 prior to Sea Lion development drilling. It could be after, but then that would be 2029 before anything else gets drilling and I would imagine Nav/Eco/FIG would want a work stream on any discovery up and running rather than waiting until 2030.

It's all getting very exciting now, pity RKH wasn't involved in the deal, but any early drilling and a discovery in PL001 would be great for RKH also.

LTT

Navitas and Eco have sown up the North Falklands basin, getting PL001 on a similar split to RKH/Navitas, now that Eco are issuing new shares to take over JHI. Looks like once the deal is done, they may get an early drill before Sea Lion production drilling, iron out the kinks and flush out the gremlins with a shake down of the rig.

Therefore, I cannot believe we are sat on a discovery of 240m+ of condensate with upside to 400m+ and a bag full of further big targets, and no takers. The board have been incredibly quiet since December.

Is Navitas really going to leave this for someone else to take the reins and develop on the back of all the investment Navitas is putting in to the Falklands to get Sea Lion and now PL001 up and running? The temp dock, the yards, the heliport, the Hotel and further accommodation among the 100's of other things they are doing? 🤔

It's doesn't make sense for Navitas to would leave it up for grabs in the current climate going forward, plus they are looking at deep and ultra deep water plays in Guyana, why would they overlook an oven ready discovery that is up for grabs, then they are already investing in the Falklands big time.

A very perplexed LTT

It’s my hope too Phil, but he is cutting it a bit fine now. We are well into March, they will need more cash to prove they are a going concern so FIG can extend the licence another 1 or 2 years, but I would imagine FIG would want something concrete and a work plan, at the very least a firm exploration or appraisal well on the cards not a bland, “We are in negotiations with a tier 1 partner!”.

I realise the war in Iran isn’t helping, but shouldn’t it be helpful, focusing on the need for resources outside of the Middle East 🤔

LTT

Let’s face it, Navitas are making loads of cash now, $15-$20 above were oil was a couple of weeks ago is making them an extra $1-1.5m per day! Of course some of it will be hedged so maybe not quite those high numbers, but still what to do with all that cash pouring in.

No wonder they just had a meeting to sort out what they can do with spare cash. They are making loads at the minute.

We cannot expect to head north like Ithaca, Serica and Harbour after all we have no production, just a promise that in roughly 2 years we will. Still as we get closer to that time, someone may be sniffing around and hopefully Sam will hold on for a great offer if it comes to that.

LTT

You’ll need to take into account what value JHI attribute to their take over of Argos way back when. Like when Harbour took over PMO, PMO holders got only a small percentage of the enlarged company, a small slice of a bigger cake. It will be interesting to see, I have no Argos/JHI converted shares to no ideas as to what the percentage will be.

LTT

Morning Much,

And that is just the early phases on Sea Lion, Navitas just published a review of PL001 talking up a lot of oil, but how much have we got in our patch with Sea Lion nearby prospects, Isobel and more!

I believe Navitas is fattening the goose for a partner to take a share of PL001 and the shared acreage with RKH. With 5B+ barrels to play with, surely a bigger mid cap would get involved. Take a 25-30% stake of everything and then Navitas and co. have the resources to drill a couple of wells in PL001, and sign off on phases 3,4 & 5 with a drill on Isobel as well.

RKH could give up 5% for some cash/carry but they will also be able to get RBL I imagine once we get closer to first oil, if we still exist.

LTT

Are they about to become a one trick pony? I think it said they would receieve some back cost from Navitas to that will give them some breathing space, but surely going forward JHI will either have to sell up (hopefully to Eco) or they will have to float, otherwise how can they raise any funds to drill and appraise, or even if they don't how will they pay back the loan, productions is half a decade away.

I think it would be better all around and simpler if Eco did an all share offer for JHI, they get upside with everything that is happening with Navitas and the old Argos holders and the larger share holders have the option to hand on in there for the course or sell their ECO stake into the market, a win win IMHO.

LTT

With a MC of just shy of £90m how much could someone get away with offering? I have seen offers where they announced a share price range for the past 6 months, they do an average and then offer a 50% premium. Could that happen here?

15p a share seems a bit light to me, plus if anyone came in, surely someone else would make an offer thus taking the share price higher. Anything about 25p I think the bigger share holders would start to sit up, at 30p+ I think they would snap their hand off as not much chance if a drill this year or next to appraise/explore.

Of course I would love to keep some skin in the game here, but even if we kept 20% we would then have to find the cash to pay our way, even if a similar deal was brokered to the Navitas/RKH deal. That would be very dilutive to say the least.

I believe it’s all coming to a head, hopefully a deal gets done that suits us all.

LTT

Have to agree, no progress by July and they will need to get some cash in "To continue talks for jam tomorrow!" if that happens I don't think us mere mortals will get a look in, they will give some more to the boys with some warrants, saying it's the easiest way to get some cash in. At least it will be at around 10p and we won't be diluted into oblivion.

Volume says nothing is close, but I check everyday hoping for a spike to say it's game on.

LTT

Big Red,

I was thinking the same. I suppose folk are just hanging on with their holding, having too many to now add, some folk will be selling looking to pastures new, the next multi bagger, if they are lucky! 🍀 Seems Supra truly has the luck of the Irish 🥰 I will let you to get the champagne in this year at the RKH AGM, you can afford it!😂

There is also the general malaise of sitting and waiting whilst the share price bounces between 68-75p. The next catalyst should be the Aoka getting disconnected, but as we have seen with RKH who knows what impact if any that will have. I’d love to say we will breach £1+ when the rig sets sail, but my past track record with FID is in tatters. So the curve should kick in at some point, but nothing is certain, we could be here at 70p until the Aoka is connected 😳 only then brokers might take a look, rework the numbers and re-rate us.

Still there may be some surprises between now and then, but I shan’t be holding my breath. I am happy with my current holding and not brave enough to try my hand elsewhere, have a little dabble in Eco and Borders for what it’s worth as further high risk plays, but RKH isn’t in the high risk basket anymore. We are 7-8 months from the rig setting sail, it is going to happen and despite everything Navitas are keeping there head down and cracking on. One day value will out.

LTT

Has anyone got access to Upstream, they have an article talking about Bluewater adding some meat to the bones about the Aoka Mizu or maybe it’s old news rehashed 🤔

LTT

Justathought,

Probably not a good idea to count JHI’s barrels before they have been drilled. On paper there could be a lot of oil and gas there, but until they drill its pie in the sky.

Hopefully Eco will take over all of JHI and thus get 35 percent of the old Argos acreage, all the more reason to to value it so highly until the deal is done.

LTT

Might even be heading down from October if they want to start drilling from December 🤔

LTT

I haven’t seen that in a while 🤔

LTT

Good article, although a couple of issues I have is what about phases 3,4 & 5? Also why mention Darwin which is held by Borders when the most likely next target is Isobel 🤔. All told we are looking at 800m to 900m in Sea Lion once all phases are drilled without even factoring in further near by discoveries that will be tied back over time.

Hopefully some more accurate articles will follow as further news surfaces.

LTT

To be honest, I'd much prefer Iran and the US do a deal and oil stays around the $65-$75 brent price range until first oil. Better for everyone, rather than knee jerk reactions, as it doesn't do anyone any favours except of course traders.

I thought we were going to break 75p yesterday, but then with no news it would have been hard to sustain. Good to see Navitas going from strength to strength though and trading on a Friday to boot! Navitas are just getting their heads down and doing the job, nothing more nothing less.

Next bit of news should be the release of the Aoka and it being towed away for refit and then possibly a rig contract, although by all accounts that's in the bag, we are just waiting for the official news, which might not be until it sets sail in Oct/Nov. Can you believe we will have a rig heading down to the Falklands in possibly 8-9months !

The good news it, we seem to be holding around the high 60's to mid 70's which is a good starting point for the next leg up on any big news, such as a partner coming onboard or a bid, but hopefully no bid anytime soon, would like to see first oil and an appraisal on Isobel before any offer raises its head.

So until then, nothing to see here, but slowly but surely we are headed to first oil, it's on the horizon and every day, week, month that passes it gets closer and closer. There is finally a finish line to get to first oil, then it will be all about what next, IF we still exist.

LTT