Member Info for longtermthinker

Also, it’s worth bearing in mind, we oversubscribed on a sure think, FID and Financial close, would we have been so keen locking away the cash for 6 months on a hope and a dream! 🤔 I think possibly not. Still what’s done is done, onwards we go.

Don’t expect a mass of buys today as the funds will not be available, my Barclays account still doesn’t show how many share I got above and beyond and the spare cash isn’t available to trade in my account. So maybe next week. Even if only 20% of the funds make it back into RKH we should see a rise. Fingers crossed.

LTT

Well, someone is hovering up the sells, 150k here, 100k there and a 200k around 11am.

Any weakness and they are snapped up.

I think something is going to give in the next 3-6months and if not, I might look elsewhere before further dilution. Fingers and toes crossed it happens sooner rather than later.

LTT

Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but seems Sam did a great job of getting the shares away at 53p, it's a scary thought if he was trying to get the money now, what would the discount be, 40p? We dodged a bullet there!

Once the OO is announced, and the quantities we have got over and above our quota are known, I am wondering if the money on the sidelines will come back into RKH at under 70p?🤔

It will be interesting to see if it goes elsewhere, particularly with those folk whom sold a few extra at 70p+ to fund their purchases, if they sold at 70p+ to bay their 53p shares, it should be a no brainer to buy at 66p.

I am expecting, once the OO is out of the way, some news of things happening, as it's been awfully quiet of late considering Navitas and RKH have the cash to forge ahead.

LTT

Gus, I thin that kind of evaluation, might be a little off without another appraisal well, any new player will not come in and pay 35p a barrel for the whole 470m barrels as that includes Darwin West which is not confirmed and in the bag, by any stretch of the imagination!

So, working on the assumption a player would pay 50p a barrel for lets say 260m barrels, nothing for Darwin West as it's just a bright spot on seismic, then you have about 26p a share. Maybe add on an extra 5p for the other prospects and Darwin West and you are looking at 31p a share. I think a lot of folk would got for that I'm afraid. If you consider that RKH got nothing per barrel for giving away 65% on their entire acreage on a fully appraised Sea Lion and a discovery on Isobel, yet to be appraised, for a loan that pays 66% for their cost to first oil, we would be extremely lucky to get an offer over 40p.

Never say never, I would be over the moon with an offer of 50p a share, but I also have to be realistic and look around. In this climate of anti oil and anti investment in oil, whom would have thought RKH would be at 66p with first oil in 2 years with the funds and the partner to do it?

Crazy times.

LTT

Gus,

I think you maybe right, a buyout is most likely, once we get well over 10p, no doubt the larger holders will cash in their 10p warrants, then any offer above 15-20p and I feel they would snap their hand off! Jam today would beat jam, cream with a cherry on top 3 to 5 years down the line any day.

Of course, I’d prefer something different, some cash and shares of the take over company, to keep some skin in the game, similar deal to Eco, but with maybe 10p per share and keeping a 25% stake, but alas, it seems unlikely the more I think about it.

Still, I have my fingers crossed hoping for the best, but planning for something else. Good luck to us all, it would be about time.

LTT

I think that is what will happen we a lot of cash in the sidelines , currently locked away as part of the OO, but if most folk have got funds to double or triple their allocation, then they only get 5% over and above, those funds will most likely buy at these low prices. It would stand reason, if they were going for a load more at 53p to hold, why not use the spare cash once it’s released to top up further whilst the market is looking the other way. 🤔

LTT

BrightSpot,

Erm ….. you say that Navitas was expected to do that , but come on, you didn’t see it coming, it’s easy to say after the fact! As with Eco farm in, you didn’t see that coming either. You are a shareholder of Eco, you have commented many times there over the years, but there wasn’t a squeak from you about that.

Now you are on the Borders BB saying all is lost, but again, you were not in the loop on Eco or JHI deals for that matter, so how can you be so sure? Maybe you don’t have the nods and winks from the Barman and one legged Pete that you used to, you have been off the target more often than on of late, are you losing you MoJo! 🤔

KR LTT

Marunam2,

Could be they are worried and want to tie everything up, but Harbour, Pemex and Zama are totally different, Pemex is bankrolled by the Mexican Gov and nobody would want to step on the Mexican Gov toes when they only just started opening up to outside players. Pemex pulled a fast one and nobody pulled them up on it for fear of losing the lot.

Cannot imagine JHI playing hardball with Navitas and RKH, but at least now they won’t have to.

To my mind it’s the gas, Gideon loves gas and he will have some game plan for it going forward, hence the deal. We will just have to wait and see.

LTT

Https://www.jhiassociates.com/north-falkland-basin

Interesting, when I looked at JHI last year they just had a footnote about PL001, but now they have a whole page with prospects.

Now where did I hear Gideon mention about a big gas prospect 🤔, think it was in one of his investor calls/updates. Seems like he has sewn that up neatly into a 65% bundle, slice off 15% for a partner with cash to have a go at the whole North Basin. It would make a load of sense and move things along at a greater pace than waiting on Sea Lion production revenues.

LTT

Yep, I can also see Eco doing a deal with JHI or maybe WTE to double their stake in PL001. However the best bet would be to take out JHI, thus get 35% of PL001 and tie up the loose ends in Guyana.

Gosh, it's all getting exciting now! Maybe this is a precursor to Navitas getting a bigger partner in, sewing up a HUGE bit of acreage with PL001, thus getting a partner in for say 15-20% to share the load. It will have to happen, Navitas are spreading themselves quite thin now, a partner with deep pockets would sort that out in the Falklands, Guyana and Africa.

LTT

JPDM,

what do you think of Eco doing an al share takeover of WTE? They could double their percentage of PL001 for a start. Or could Eco revive their deal to take out JHI to not only tie up PL001, but also their Guyana acreage? with WTE having a MC of around £12m, Eco could do either, take out WTE or take over JHI?

I wonder what the implications are for taking over JHI, does WTE get a percentage of the new Eco enlarged company?

Just some musings.

LTT

If Navitas were wanting to entice a partner into the game, sewing up PL001 would help that along. Anyone farming in for 15-20% would now get a much bigger pie to dine out on. I think Eco might go for JHI now to get 35% of PL001 and tie up the loose ends on its Guyana prospects, it would make a lot of sense and let the JHI bods get a pay-out and walk off into the sunset.

Lets face it, they could be waiting until 2029 before getting a drill on PL001 and if Navitas are going to look at other options to drill, Isobel would surely be top or at the very least high up of the list if they had a spare slot. 🤔

It also put to bed the idea that FIG will no renew the licenses going forward. Who is next, Borders?

LTT

Are we next of the Navitas shopping list?

Cannot believe with Navitas investing in deep water, extremely high pressure Gulf of Mexico's Shenandoah, they would pass up the chance of Borders and Darwin whom they are putting on the map with the FID of Sea Lion and the building of infrastructure to support drilling as we speak!

JHI has look a like prospects to Sea Lion, but by no way are they a done deal and will all come in, Darwin is a huge discovery! Seems crazy to me.

LTT

Thenorseman,

I have to agree “B” is the way it’s going to happen. No point in doing it before, as they would look right muppets if Navitas walked, FIG caused delays, money couldn’t be secured. Also even with the funds raised, until financial close there would be so much hassle with the shares in issue and the shares due to come into issue, it would make perfect sense to wait until the end of Jan 2026 before even considering making an offer!

I’d prefer to get to first oil, but the reality is, someone will have an eye on RKH now, as it’s not just about Sea Lion, it’s the whole basin, RKH acreage alone will have 2B-3B barrels plus and then some and anyone in on the ground floor will be looked upon favourably to acquire more acreage going forward.

The poison pill of what RKH has to pay FIG is now known and the Navitas loans will become toast for anyone who takes out RKH, so whomever does it will need some deep pockets.

Hopefully we can get to £1.50+ before any offers come in, plus I’d like to get to this years AGM and shake Sam’s hand with a big smile on my face and say well done. But we will just have to wait and see, someone might try it on whilst the oil price is weak and the news is doom and gloom.

LTT

Many thanks again Mogger, that is fantastic news, it’s one thing to hear rumours and hearsay that things have kicked off in the Falklands, but to actually see it and hear is directly from the horses mouth is another!

Navitas are already cracking on with things down there, getting everything up to speed and ready for the drilling rigs arrival in 2027. No doubt we will hear more on that front in the coming months as it will have to get its 5 years certification and then it will be mobbed down, it could be heading down from November this year!

Onwards and upwards I say, but even if we stabilise around these levels until further news, I’m happy 😊 as one things is pretty certain, we won’t we at 70p as we get nearer to first oil, particularly if oil is back above $70 at the end of 2027/Early 2028.

LTT

I have to say I am surprised Borders hasn't moved up on RKH's Financial Close/FID news. They have done the deal and boots are hitting the ground, no doubt as we speak. The temp dock, the heliport, etc will be on the cards if not already under way, so why nothing from the board here? And why nothing about Financial Close, as that is the main news, that money is sorted and funds are there to get to first oil on Sea Lion, this was more RNS-able than FID!

Surely, there must be someone sniffing around. I suppose us holding up around 10p must count for something. If the board cannot do this now/next 6 months, they never will.

To be honest I imagined Navitas would farm-in or take out Borders in a deal similar (but better) to the one they did with Eco, if nothing else to secure Borders and Darwin with the promise of a drill so no one else could take them out! Gideon would feel pretty foolish if someone drilled Darwin West, clipped a deeper target and suddenly they had a 1 to 2B barrel discovery on their hands, think Guyana, with multiple look a like prospects in their acreage. It would make Sea Lion look like an oil stain on a garage forecourt by comparison!

Maybe it's too quiet and the wheels are in motion behind the scenes, after-all, nobody saw the deal with Eco coming, it was out of the blue, without a sniff from anyone! Fingers crossed.

LTT

Sorry JPDM,

I got a little confused, I thought you were meaning JHI would get $600m NOW on the back of the old Argos acreage, but I see what you were getting at, so yes of course, in the future PL001 could be worth in excess of that with all the prospects if they came in, just the value today will be nothing near that.

However it's all good if Eco and Navitas take over JHI, then old Argos shareholders are back in the game with a rig coming down to drill Sea Lion late 2026/early 2027, with no doubt down time to pop a well or too in PL001.

Things are getting very exciting and interesting, something has to give soon.

LTT

Hi JPDM,

don't mean to go against you, but I think valuing JHI at $600m for giving up 65% is a little optimistic. RKH had a discovery and a fully appraised one at that, what have JHI got in Agros' old acreage, Johnston Gas discovery encroaching into their acreage and some 3D. Yes, they have a load of prospects to go at, look a likes of Sea Lion, but that's all. RKH had a fully appraised Sea lion, an almost complete EIS and FDP that Navitas needed to update and they still all they got for 65% of the whole acreage was two loans, no cash up front. Even Harbour paid them something like $6m to take Sea Lion off their hands!

So, Im' not saying JHI's Argos acreage hasn't got any value, it surely does, but cash upfront and carry on drilling might be a stretch too far.

Still something is a foot here and it will be interesting to see how it all fits together with Eco. Maybe as has been mentioned, ECO might take them out with Navitas so Nav gets it's hands on Argos old acreage and tidies things up a bit.

Interesting times.

LTT

Donalb,

I’m not 100% but the Venezuelan oil is heavy oil that US refineries need to cut with the lighter grades they get from shale (gosh sounds like drug dealers LOL!) I think the oil flowing from Shenandoah is much lighter, so it shouldn’t be affected by the heavy stuff, it’s just the general down due to lower oil prices. Shenandoah is making money even below $30.

Still, its goods the money is signed off and Navitas and RKH raised their share, nothing to worry about until we get closer to first oil. Everything is still on track whatever happens to RKH or Navitas share price in the short/mid term.

LTT

LOL, bought last week and they went up a little first, but then came off the boil, glad I kept a little powder dry, let’s see where we end up over the next couple of day.

LTT