Member Info for longtermthinker

Bit of volume this morning, maybe a few more folk read theTelegraph than first thought!

LTT

Have to agree Nasty, with nobody keen to sell, I can see the Bid/Ask only heading one way, into the 90’s prior to FID as the MM’s try to get some stock moving around. Bodes well for FID announcement next week fingers crossed!🤞

Will be interesting if there is further media coverage over the this week, if so it might be the start of a concerted effort reading for the big day! 🤔

LTT

LTT

Where do they get these hacks from who do such poor research. But then, I don’t suppose it’s such a catchy title if they put, “North Sea Floating Productuon Storage and Offloading vessel to be sent for refit for Falklands oil development plan in final stages of FID, then the operator will have to secure a rig to actually drill the wells for them to be connected to the Aoka Mizu!” Does make a good headline!

Still any press is good press, seems like things are hotting up, why this article now?🤔

LTT

At the September meeting, only attended by a handful of PI’s, Sam referred to the broker when asked about timings, and the broker handling the OO said that the documents would be sent out detailing the offer, timing, allocations etc, the following day after FID and definitely within a week.

So if Navitas announce FID on the 14th, an RNS comes out for us on Monday the 15th, the documents can be sent out on the 16th (surely RKH would know prior and therefore have everything ready to go so maybe in the post on the 15th as they will know who was on the share register at close of business on Friday the 12th!). It gives us time to apply for our OO shares before the New Year.

It sounds like a plan, of course only if Navitas FID on the 14th 🤔. You watch, just to spite me they will FID tomorrow! 😉

LTT

I have it on good authority that the OO will be available to all those on the share register either on the day of the FID or the day before. It will not be back dated to weeks or months prior and definitely not back to July.

My money is on the end of day prior to FID, as on the day the trading could be extreme to say the least and it would be a little unfair if FID is announced and those buying in on that news get access the 53p OO 🤔. Better and fairer to have it the day before.

LTT

They will have to keep raising this to get sellers if they want folk to be out for the weekend! Not that they would entice me into selling even one share so late in the day!

If no news this weekend, then I would assume it will have to be week commencing the 15th of December if it's going to happen, but it could happen anytime from now until the 31st of December if they so wish.

I can imagine into next week we could see 90p+ ready for FID as many hold firm and they have to keep the bid/ask , heading higher to make a market. It bodes well for FID dropping into share price strength, then we will know how many shares we are entitled to from the OO and when the cut off date is. Most likely the day before the announcement. This would imply, RKH and Sam will be in the loop as to when FID will be announced, surely Navitas cannot drop it on Sam out of the blue like the Eco announcement. It show's what a tight ship Navitas are sailing to first oil.

"Hoist the mainsail Mr Christian, and 30 lasses to anyone who breathes a word!"

LTT

Thanks Mogger,

It’s seems the EPL is still effecting the oil industry in the UK. It’s very sad that the government cannot see the wood for the trees! How can they still keep the EPL in place.

However it is playing to Navitas’ favor, they will have their pick, to get Sea Lion over the line and up and running.

LTT

Morning Gus,

I think the Canadian and the bigger holders would snap their hand off with an offer of 57p, I know I would. I think you are right, the best scenario would be a total take out, my own target is a bit lower that yours, but I’d rather take yours.

I am however very interested in the Navitas/ Eco deal, it certainly has affected Eco to the positive. I cannot help wonder if Gideon isn’t sniffing around Borders. Of course he would have to offer a better deal than Eco, but how much better?🤔

I still wouldn’t dismiss a bigger player coming in on Sea Lion at FID or just after who want to sew up the north and south. Gideon would look foolish if another player farmed-in to Borders, borrowed the Sea Lion rig to drill Darwin West, proved it, clipped a couple of lower targets and then they are talking 2B barrels + with a load more massive prospects! Think Guyana and the early days of Exxon!

If Navitas are tying up Eco into the fold, why wouldn’t they go for Borders who have huge potential. They are going to be in the Falklands big style soon, why would Navitas allow Borders to slip through their fingers.

Just some musing, but it all got a lot more exciting.

LTT

Transformational and exciting as to what could come with that news!

Navitas kept the Eco deal quiet, not even BrightSpot, whom follows Eco had an inclination of the deal, it came out of the blue! You’d think Navitas would have enough on their plate with Shenandoah South, and getting Sea Lion to FID and then all the work that comes after that, but no, they don’t rest on their laurels. Which is strange, as it was implied with the oil price in the doldrums and predictions of lower prices next year, it could knock the Sea Lion can down the road into 2H 2026!🤔Funny that, anyone would think Navitas have longer term plans, looking to the horizon while others look down at their feet.

With a fair wind in our sail, once FID is done, we will be just over 2 years to first oil! Can you believe it, so FID being priced in and the II’s who bought in on the placing selling up on any rise is ludicrous. II’s don’t chop and change investments like they change their pants!

In all honesty, a nice rise to just over £1-£1.20 with a retrace back to around 95p on FID would suit me. It gives those who want to get out with a profit a chance, and it will replace those investors with ones who are in at around £1, and hoping for £2 on first oil. After FID, once the dust has settled, we will stabilize and be steady away to first oil, heading higher as further news drops and the FPSO heads to refit and the Rig contract is signed and it sets sail Q4 2026.

“Second Star on the right, and straight on till morning!”

LTT

Rookie,

I hope you are right, however looking at the deal Eco got, maybe we will get something similar, a token payment, for 70-80% with a carry on an appraisal or two with a flow test, then the offer of a loan to develop as per RKH. Think that is the best we can hope for!

Of course any such offer would put a firecracker under the share price for sure, maybe even get to 16-20p but unless there is a timeline as to drilling rather than empty promises that rise might be short lived.

Think I would prefer a straight buyout, it would make more sense, the Canadian and the bigger shareholders can be off to pastures new and we can get a nice wad of cash it invest else where, maybe in the buyer of Borders if they have a path to first oil. What we need is someone with cash and the desire to do it, no more jam tomorrow.

LTT

Well it's about time we broke 10p again, we are riding on RKH coat tails and as they are heading up, so should we.

Every day that passes we are another day closer to FID.

LTT

Low volume, but the bid and ask are edging up, imagine what will happen when we have news and volume all at the same time!

LTT

Great find Ladigue, another box ticket on the road to FID. They must have a timeline of when the Aoka is booked into the shipyard, I cannot imagine they have a flexible 6 month window when the Aoka can drop in any time!

Delta9 could be on the money with his May disconnect, 2 month approx tow so the work is started from July 2026. 1 year+ to do the work then end of Q2/early Q3 2027 it’s towed to the Falklands for connecting. WOW it all sounds like it’s just around the corner when put like that! Well, after 15+ years, it actually is!!!!!😂

LTT

Tincan,

I’m afraid there would be little value in the Southern acreage, I think Sam only kept it to keep the tax losses on the books! Borders have Darwin but it’s currently in limbo until they get a farm in or a buy-out, either way, 50p is a pipe dream. Anything above 20p I’m out, nothing happening until 2029 unless a big player comes in, and they won’t want Borders scratching around to fund there share for a $350m+ appraisal/exploration/flow test campaign. Even if they did by some miracle get a big partner, no oil will flow until the next decade, Sea Lion has been 15 years in the making.

35% of the northern basin upon FID is about to become a whole lot more valuable. We will rerate and even if the share price doesn’t reflect it, next month or in the coming year, anyone wanting to take over RKH will have to take that valuation into consideration.

LTT

Mirasol,

I think that will possibly be a moot point, no way can RKH keep hold of 35% of a 2B to 3B barrel basin! I think they will be lucky to hang on until first oil if i'm honest. I would love to head to the AGM in 2028 and shake Sam by the hand, in the year of First Oil on Sea Lion and say, "Well done! You kept us in the game and here we are!", but I feel it's highly unlikely to happen. A predator will make it's move in 2026/27. We will be lucky to appraise Isobel.

As for heading off on other ventures, I don't think that will happen, they tried that with Italy and Egypt and look what happened there! Plus, Sam, I imagine will have had enough, he will want to cash in his considerable amount of chips and take Mrs Moody on that round the world cruise he promised in 2012, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2019, "It's REALLY going to happen this time darling! This time next year love we will be sipping champagne in the Caribbean on our cruise!"

DOH!!!!!!!!!!!

😉

LTT

Hi JPDM,

it just makes sense to me, of course it could drop this afternoon, this week or next, but in fairness to the Falklands people is should happen on an afternoon UK time, once they are awake and are out of their jimmy-jams! It would be crazy to have them wake up to the headlines that it's been signed off whilst they were asleep!

As discussed, the timings are getting limited now and options are running out if they want to announce this year! Fridays are out so it won't be on the 12th of December after the election, plus the 19th is out. Week commencing the 22nd would be out, who would want to be flying back from the Falklands over Christmas? Or be there over New Year if they plan to have some bods there for the photo op! I'm not saying the Falklands would be a bad place to be over Christmas and New Year, I'm just saying for being with family and friends, it wouldn't be their first choice.

So, to my mind, it's either the week commencing the 15th, or it's in the New Year. However, with Navita's Q3 results saying "FID by the end of 2025"; Sam having said Navitas plan to FID by the end of 2025; Gideons recent interview, where he says, "2025", he might look a little foolish if it wasn't going to happen!

Good luck to us all.

LTT

P.S. Trading is exceedingly thin, 50+ trades with volume around 150k+, all A trades, the MM's have their work cut out today. Surprised Happy isn't around to try and drum up some sells! 🤔

LOL, Dibley Parish!

All the more reason to have it sorted prior to purduh, they have been 25 years plus mixing this cake, it's about time they got it in the oven.

I don't think Navitas would have dragged them into getting the mineral resources team up to speed if they were going to allow them to Ummm and Arrrrr over tax or fiscal stability, transfer prices, etc at this late stage!

Also, from the latest Navitas presentation,

"The Partnership is working to obtain the final

approval from the Falkland Islands

government (FIG) for the project’s detailed

field development plan, which is expected

shortly prior to the final investment decision

(FID), following the approval in principle, which

has already been given."

So, the approval in principle has already been given, so we are just waiting for final for what? It's like the FPSO, long lead items, drilling contractors, subsea installation services, they have all got agreements in place, ready for the big one. They are waiting until after the election and then the starters pistol is fired, hopefully.

What a great Christmas present that would be.

LTT

BB_hoppa,

but how could the newly Elected pull up a chair at the table and then be expected to review the Tax regime or the FDP, etc within a week before Christmas, to sign off on such a HUGE Falklands Islands changing project?🤔

If there are new bods elected, they would want to review everything surely. If I were newly elected, I wouldn't want to sign my name to anything without a proper review as my neck would be on the line! I would get want everything double checked.

I feel the Falklands Gov, in their secret meeting without press or public, would have agreed to everything. How many bods would be in the room, 5 or 10 max, they would be able to keep a lid on that. Plus even with the FIG sign off, Navitas could say, "We are now waiting for the Bank to finish due diligence!", thus keeping everyone guessing.

That is the only way the election results can come in and then they announce FID, is if the previous Gov have already given authority to go ahead, dotted all the i's and crossed all the T's.

LTT

Less than a couple of dozen trades this morning, nobody buying or selling.

I don’t believe the opening of a new oil province is priced in, not by a long way. Folk are still concerned that FID might be kicked into Q1 2026 and the bigger players won’t be interested until we have FID signed and we are on our way to first oil.

After that, your guess is as good as mine, we will have profit taking and buying that could balance out and keep us treading water, however over the following couple of years to first oil, there is only one way the share price is heading, think about November last year when we were at 14p, and have steadily climbed to where we are today!

Plus we will be on the radar with news articles and brokers notes talking up the share price, or down for that matter depending on their stance. It’s all going to be exciting either way.

As for news, it could come anytime, however, it’s looking more and more likely the week commencing 15th of December. I presume everything is ready to go, I cannot imagine the newly elected being expected to come into the job and be expected to go into discussions about the tax regime and to sign off on it just like that, on such a monumental document that will change everything! No, I think everything has been agreed and is set in stone, they are just waiting till after the election to stand on the steps of the Governors house for a fanfare and photo op. It just makes more sense.

LTT

Grewber,

I cannot see it as an issue, they are working on future returns from 2028, not based on the oil price today.

Also, Shenandoah was sanctioned having just come out of a slump and then covid. They were raising ALL the cash for that. With Sea Lion they are spending $700m of raised cash before they even dip into the $1B loan! Plus Shenandoah is profitable under $20 I think 🤔 from memory.

No, I feel it’s games on and those putting their hat in the ring for the election know it.

LTT