Member Info for longtermthinker

Sorry, meant “ No big sell off”

I hate using LSE on my phone, think I will have to get Brave on this too.

LTT

I think if there was any hint of FID, volume would be through the roof, 10m + traded before lunch, minimum.

As it stands, there is little selling and not much buying, although the big seller seems to have stopped.

Is this the calm before the storm 🤔 I hope so. I believe the Falklands goes into purdah from today, so it’s nice to see no big seller seems off due to no FID. Sam said not to panic if nothing before, Navitas are still on track for FID 2025. What a nice Christmas present that would be from Santa. 🎅🏻😊

LTT

LOL, Totally agree dictumdedicto,

look East?!?!?! From where? The Falklands, Houston, Salisbury, London, Aberdeen? Or even Winchester as thats to the East of Salisbury?

Are we talking about the East as in China or the Far East as in Japan. That's the problem with such clues, it's like the Newspaper Horoscopes, "You will come into some money! You will meet a new dark stranger! You will go on a journey!" LOL

Lots of bases covered that way, from finding a penny of the street to getting a raise; you meet a stranger with dark hair, a tan from their hols, bump into them in a dark alleyway; A journey could be a trip to the shops, a holiday, a journey of the mind to enlightenment!

As you can see, it can be read a number of ways and the the author can say, "Yeah, just like what I predicted"

Don't get me wrong, it's funny to try and interpret, but to be taken with a huge pinch of salt IMHO.

LTT

I had to love Gideon’s comments at a Energy conference,

“ We purchased the rights to the Shenandoah reservoir at a price that was considered an opportunity for a four-room apartment in Sde Dov, and it is worth about four billion dollars,"

Seems like they are on a roll. Maybe in a few years he’s saying, “ We were paid by Harbour to take Sea Lion off there hands, and received 65% from RKH for a couple of loans! Now we are pumping oil and have opened a province worth 10’s of Billions.”.

LTT

Seems a bit quite on here to say Navitas have a special general meeting tomorrow that may be important!

As Alma pointed out, it could pave the way to securing the International Banks $1B, or at the very least allow them to start whipping the hat around for the funds.

Going by the oversubscription for Navitas' raise, it should be pretty easy and there will be many II's chomping at the bit to get onboard the gravy train, knowing full well, it's not just about Sea Lion, it's about opening up a new oil province.

Tomorrow will be an interesting and hopefully an enlightening day. Fingers and toes crossed.

LTT

Yes it will be 8m Euros and Placees who put up cash into escrow will not be allowed to participate.

So that should give everyone a couple of extra shares to purchase if they have the funds.

LTT

Personally I don't think it's priced in, there are too many spanners that could get in the works in theory, for the big money to commit now, before FID. The II's and the Israelis have bitten the bullet because they have a get out clause, their money back at the end of March 2026, with interest, OR they FID before then and they get their 53p shares and the 80p warrants. Maybe they will off a few 53p shares into any rise, knowing they have their warrants, however, if we re-rate to 88p, I cannot see many cashing in their warrants for a 10% gain, knowing that there will be a drip drip drip of news over the coming month and years up to first oil.

Also in Gideon they trust, the recent raise was oversubscribed by a massive amount, so once FID is in the bag, what's to stop those who couldn't partake getting into RKH to enjoy the ride to first oil?

Although I have my fingers crossed for FID prior to when FIG purdah starts, I am resided to the possibility that it may not happen into later in the year, as Sam said, "Don't panic if it doesn't happen before Purdah!". The possible reason they brought if forward was so they had time to FID prior to Christmas.

LTT

Mirasol,

makes you realise why RKH raised extra cash, just in case there were opportunities or unforeseen costs coming up. No point in RKH having just enough cash to get to first oil, then Navitas plans to take over Argos old acreage to tie up Johnson gas and the lookalike prospects! Or they want to drill a couple of appraisals on Isobel so they can work up the numbers whilst they drill the development wells on Sea Lion. It would be a poor show if Sam had to come back, cap in hand again!

Ok, Isobel is unlikely, however if a partner comes in at FID, it's maybe it could happen or in 2029 after Sea lion phase 1 is drilled. Plus the share of cash would be more manageable for Navitas, maybe for RKH also if they gave up 5% at FID for a free carry on Isobel.

LTT

Croft,

The most likely scenario is if Navitas and RKH offer a drill to JHI in return for a hefty percentage of the acreage. If JHI are at risk of losing the license, they may be strong armed into it.

If the only option was to lose it, it would make sense, FIG get a commitment to an exploration well, Nav and RKH tie up more acreage rather that in get taken from JHI and be part of open licensing in 2027, and JHI get to keep some skin in the game. Win, win.

LTT

Thanks Mogger,

I wonder if his contract has been renewed so he can advise Navitas not to go ahead whilst there is uncertainty with the future oil prices, or maybe advising FIG to hold off on sign off until oil prices are higher so they can get more revenue 🤔

😉

LTT

Covgaz,

I think Borders need a farm-in with a free carry. With 800m+ shares in issue and a MC of £85m, they would dilute shareholders into oblivion to drill even one exploration/appraisal well, then they would need to flow test it. What would that cost $200m+ 🤔 more if they cannot share a rig!

It’s ok having 100% of something, but only if it can be monitised. I think Borders are hoping for a take over with some shares and cash of the new company, otherwise I cannot see they keeping more than 20% for an appraisal and a flow test. IMHO.

LTT

Hi bokorbilly,

Sorry for the delay in getting back to you.

Thanks also for the link to face book. Well if RSK are cracking on with Phase 7, they cannot do everything so FIH should pick up the leftovers, there will be more than enough work to go around.

I think Stuart was implying that the "Ramp to Rig" would mean all the kit being supplied, food, consumables, basically everything, then they would ship it to the rig. This would entail procurement, storage and then loading and unloading. It could be quite a lucrative and longterm contract. FIH have a lot of fingers in a lot of pies they will surely benefit once FID happens IMHO.

It's a bit disappointing that we are not involved in that development, but as we have the shipping, construction, retail, rentals and land ripe for development, I can see us being heavily involved one way or another once Navitas FID Sea Lion, even if the board at the AGM where not singing from the rooftops about the opportunity! Once FID happens it will be a case of them either taking the bull by the horns or putting up the for sale sign, I would be happy about either way as the value is a long way off being reflected in the share price.

LTT

P.S. I think is was your Dad who was quite vocal and asking about the share dividend buy back opt in plan as he say he was there on behalf of himself and his son.

Sorry, yes, it's from Sept, I should have made that clear. It was just the first time I have seen it in the news section on Navitas' site and the translation was very positive.

Sorry for any confusion, I'll get me coat!

LTT

There is a link in the news section about the fund raising, I opened it in Chrome and did a translation;

Navitas completed today (Tuesday) a capital raising totaling NIS 1.23 billion. As part of the non-uniform offering phase (the institutional phase of the offering), Navitas raised NIS 877.5 million, with the volume of requests received totaling approximately NIS 4.5 billion.

In the public phase, Navitas raised another NIS 351 million, with the volume of requests received totaling NIS 14.3 billion. The total fundraising amounts to NIS 1.23 billion and is considered one of the largest equity fundraisings on the Israeli Stock Exchange in recent years.

Navits Chairman Gideon Tadmor: "The success of the fundraising and the high demand are a tremendous expression of confidence by the Israeli capital market in Navits' growth strategy and enable the expansion of the partnership's activities. We would like to thank everyone for participating in the fundraising."

The bit that struck me was the "Navitas raised NIS 877.5 million, with the volume of requests received totaling approximately NIS 4.5 billion". So they raised approx 900m but had interested parties offering 5 times that. This implies to me that Navitas will have no issue in getting the $1B from the International Bank, all those institutions that could not take part will no doubt be wanting in on that $1B that the bank will be corner-stoning.

Plus on top of that oil is on the up with Russian sanctions kicking in, it kinda shows that knee jerk reactions are a bit silly, Navitas are thinking about the oil price in 3-10years from now on Sea Lion, not on todays talked up one minute, talk down the next oil prices!

I will get it in now, but I definitely wouldn't want to be out over this weekend! 😳😉

LTT

I don't know why folk are hung up on it being a short/insider dealing. It hasn't crashed the share price which is the main thing.

As I say, it's most likely one of the big holders whom took part in the Placing getting rid of some physical shares.

As an example, Aedos, they hold 8% of the company, so if they had became a placee for say 25m shares at 53p, the money is put in escrow. They are £13,250,00 out of pocket, the cash is tied up until possibly March 2026, and then if FID doesn't happen you get the cash back and interest.

There where no rules that I am aware of that state they have to hold all their current shares until FID, in fact the warrants aren't even attached to their current holding, unlike our OO offer which when they announce we are allocated 53p shares in relation to our holding.

However, IF they had a sniff of FID coming, that it was nailed on, they could sell 18m physical shares getting their approx £13.5m back knowing, that they will receive those 25m shares shortly, also they have warrants to come and thus release the cash to use elsewhere. That's what I would do, it would be a no brainer, IF I had a sniff of FID coming down the pipe. It's below the 3% notification so it could have been a trade to another II.

After all, Sam must have said something to the largest shareholders and the Israelis to get them onboard. It wouldn't have been, "Look it's a win, win, there is a back stop of March 2026 where you will get all your money back with interest just in case!"

🤔

LTT

I’m with BB3 on this, the most likely scenario is one of the Placees for example Odey, selling to get hold of some cash, in the knowledge that those shares will be replaced by 53p shares and tasty warrants going forward imminently. It’s what I would do, deleverage.

Do an off the books trade to a mate for 75p, whom can then take part in the OO and load up with the 53p shares that Odeys holding cannot participate in. Just a thought.

LTT

Happy,

FDP has been approved, the EIS sailed through with minimal changes, FIG have go a loan that they would struggle to pay back from Squid revenues, particularly as the season has been cut short again! The Islanders are on the whole behind this, if they had any big reservations they should have spoken up long before now, the gate is open and the horse is about to bolt! IMHO.

FIG are all over this, they have increased the size of their team and at Mogger has pointed out planning permissions are being submitted. Does this really seem like an operator who is not barreling towards a FID sooner rather than later! 🤔

LTT

Sorry I might have been a little unclear.

We talked about a ramp to rig service they had discussed with Navitas.

We also talked about a building contract they had pitched for but didn’t win, however he still felt they were well placed with lots of land , in particular near the Temp Dock which it going to be upgraded for 24/7 running. So imho the land nearby will become very valuable indeed.

LTT

Hi BB,

I went to the GM in Sept and it was a pretty poor affair to be honest, a Work Space rental room only a handful of shareholders. I asked if they were in talks with Navitas and they said yes, however until FID not much to report , as they said they have been here before, no doubt meaning PMO. Stuart came over for a chat after the usual Q&A and we were talking about Navitas and he said they discussed a Ramp to Rig service with them, they had pitched, but not won a contract however they do have some prime land very close to the Temporary Dock that would come into play once FID is done and dusted.

I personally feel they will be well placed with the land, retail and property side, but cannot help feeling if they were offered a buyout again, they would snap their hand off. Why else would the cash in the MoMart property and pay it as a special div to share holders, wouldn’t they have been better to invest in the company or keep some powder dry for Navitas FID?

It’s a difficult one to judge, we will just have to wait and see. If nothing else my thinking it, the share price might rise and the dividend reinvestment scheme kicks in at the end of the month. That is if a few folk have ticked that option.

LTT

Moody,

I have a few FIH, if you head over to FIH board you can read a few posts talking about the pros and cons.

The thing to bear in mind is they are very illiquid, so buying or selling moves the share price, on a purchase alone you can find yourself 10-15% down on the trade without anyone else buying or selling. I got in for the special dividend, and I am holding until FID as they will pick up some contracts as they have a lot of fingers in a lot of pies.

The old story of the gold rush days, when there were riches to be found and lost, the real steady winners where the folk whom supplied the pots, pans, picks, tents and food. That is what FIH could be, if they pull their finger out! Not saying it's worth buying at this point, but who knows.

LTT